99th Academy Awards Predictions: September 27th Edition

We are now officially in the autumn phase of Oscar predicting mode. The New York Film Festival has just started where we will get our first reviews and official WOM for Behemoth! and Artificial, among others. Venice, Telluride, and Toronto have wrapped with the latter bestowing its Oscar bellwether People’s Choice Award to The Black Ball. In my view, that helps solidify what I’ve been projecting for months that Ball is a legit threat to The Odyssey for Best Picture. There’s a reason I’ve had them 1-2 for quite some time.

The London Film Festival is also around the corner and it’s notable for the premiere of Wildwood and Ray Gunn, two titles that could majorly shake up the Best Animated Feature competition.

Review embargoes will also lift in the coming days for Digger and The Social Reckoning. I’m skeptical about both regarding their awards viability in the highest profile races but the picture will become far clearer by the next update.

The fall season also means I’m condensing my picks and possibilities in the major categories. Best Picture is being whittled from 25 to 15 with the directing and acting derbies going from 15 to 10 hopefuls. That’s why the list of movies, filmmakers, and thespians dropping out below is extensive.

You can read all the movement below and my next update will arrive in a couple weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)

6. The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Obsession (PR: 8) (-1)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. I Play Rocky (PR: 16) (+5)

12. Fjord (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Possible Love (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Elsinore (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Digger (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Michael

Ink

Club Kid

You Can See Everything

The Social Reckoning

Werwulf

Being Heumann

Primetime

Josephine

Sense and Sensibility

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)

5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: 12) (+2)

Dropped Out:

Cristian Mungiu, Fjord

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger

Curry Barker, Obsession

Danny Boyle, Ink

Robert Eggers, Werwulf

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 4) (E)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 6) (E)

7. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster

Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning

Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

Mason Reeves, Josephine

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 2) (E)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)

5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: 8) (E)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

Seth Rogen, The Invite

Andrew Garfield, Artificial

Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three

Jordan Firstman, Club Kid

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)

3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

Sandra Hüller, Digger

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma

Eva Victor, Behemoth!

Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine

Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (-1)

4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (E)

5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 11) (+1)

Dropped Out:

John Goodman, Digger

Skyler Gisondo, Primetime

Riz Ahmed, Digger

Channing Tatum, Josephine

Tom Holland, The Odyssey

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Tender Loving Care (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Possible Love (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Club Kid (PR: 5) (-3)

9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Elsinore

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (E)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ink (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. Primetime (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. All of a Sudden (PR: 2) (E)

3. Possible Love (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Minotaur (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Everytime (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Coward (PR: 9) (E)

10. Woman Unknown (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Silent Friend

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (+1)

9. In Waves (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. NAZA (PR: 1) (E)

2. You Can See Everything (PR: 2) (E)

3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 3) (E)

4. American Doctor (PR: 4) (E)

5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. 14th (PR: 6) (E)

7. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The History of Concrete (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Nuisance Bear (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Closure

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Being Heumann (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Debut (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Michael (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

9. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

All of a Sudden

Fjord

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Digger (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)

9. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (+1)

8. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Digger (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mother Mary

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Debut (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)

9. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

You Can See Everything

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Clayface (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Rose (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-3)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Bride! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Elsinore

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Debut (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Werwulf

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (+1)

2. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 3) (+1)

3. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 1) (-2)

4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 4) (E)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: 6) (E)

7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)

8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Too Much to Ask” from Ray Gunn (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

“Save the Day” from Hoppers

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Backrooms (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wild Horse Nine

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The Debut (PR: 9) (E)

10. Werwulf (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Digger

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 8) (+5)

4. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)

7. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (E)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10 (E)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

16 Nominations

The Odyssey

10 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

7 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

All of a Sudden, The Debut, Dune: Part Three, The Invite

5 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

American Doctor, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Clayface, Fatherland, Fjord, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Iron Boy, Michael, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Tender Loving Care, Wildwood, You Can See Everything

Toronto Rolls with The Black Ball

The People’s Choice Award at the Toronto Film Festival is a truly predictive bellwether for a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. How much so? Thirteen of the past fourteen winners of the Canadian prize have nabbed a BP mention. That extends to sixteen of the last eighteen including the following Academy winners for the highest prize: Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, and Nomadland. Movies that took People’s Choice and were nominated for BP include Silver Linings Playbook, Room, La La Land, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Jojo Rabbit, American Fiction, and last year’s Hamnet. Since 2012, only Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck took the PCA award and did not receive a BP nom from the Academy.

Additionally, the runner-up and second runner-up designation at TIFF is filled with Best Picture winners and nominees in the 21st century. That list includes Juno, Argo, Spotlight, Call Me by Your Name, Roma, Parasite, The Power of the Dog, The Holdovers, Emilia Pérez, Anora, and Frankenstein.

So… this is kind of a big deal. For six years in a row, two of the three People Choice’s selections from each year were honored with BP mentions from the Academy.

That’s why The Black Ball (La bola negra in Spanish) unquestionably punched its ticket to a Best Picture nod and a chance to emerge victorious. Truth be told, it was there already. The international drama (a near shoo-in winner for International Feature Film in a few months) was TIFF’s top choice. I’ve had it ranked 2nd behind Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey for months. An argument can be made (especially now) to rank the Netflix property in first. Don’t be surprised if I still roll with Odyssey but Ball upped its opportunity even more so with today’s annoucement.

Many assumed Ball would get TIFF’s International People’s Choice prize but that surprisingly went to Simon Stone’s Elsinore with Andrew Scott (in what is anticipated to be a Best Actor nominated performance). This is a nice prize for Elsinore‘s chances in BP.

The real intrigue lies with TIFF’s runner-up selections: Peter Farrelly’s I Play Rocky and Sian Heder’s Being Heumann. The former was tagged as a crowd pleaser upon its screening though reviews were mixed. The latter is Heder’s follow-up to her Best Picture winning CODA from 2021. If this is the seventh year where two out of three make the Oscar BP cut, I haven’t had either of these in my top ten. The streak could be broken this year, but I’d say Rocky has a better shot than Heumann.

It is worth noting some contenders that didn’t make the top 3 from the festival going voters. Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut and Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine were both strong possibilities. I have both in my BP ten and today’s developments are unlikely to take either out. One film that could have benefited more had it been included is Jordan Firstman’s Club Kid. A People’s Choice shoutout would’ve increased its visibility and now I think it might not be a major campaigning priority for A24 (who have other hopefuls to champion).

Bottom line: The Black Ball is rolling and should continue to do so as the season begins in earnest.

99th Academy Awards Predictions: September 14th Edition

I did my last Oscar predictions update as August closed out and a lot has occurred since then. The Venice and Telluride Film Festivals have come and gone and Toronto’s is ongoing. We have buzz, reviews, and WOM on plenty more movies. You can peruse my blog for detailed posts on them.

So what’s changed and what’s changed the same? Let’s start with the same. The Odyssey and The Black Ball are still 1-2 in BP while Wild Horse Nine and The Debut have risen after their festival debuts. Yet there’s only a single newcomer in BP and it’s from a foreign feature that premiered months ago at Cannes. I’m swapping in All of a Sudden for Fjord (which won the Palme d’Or at that French fest back in May).

In Other Possibilities in Best Picture, You Can See Everything pops up in 19th. At Telluride, it was a project no one knew existed and the documentary focused on Nathan Fielder’s dealings with Elizabeth Holmes sits at #2 in Doc Feature behind new #1 NAZA. That doc received the longest recorded standing ovation in Venice history. Everything has a teaser that has already inspired countless memes.

In Best Actress, I already had Julianne Moore (The Debut) in 1st place but its unveiling certainly solidifies it. Same goes for her costar in Paul Giamatti in Supporting Actor.

John Malkovich rises to 1st in Best Actor for Wild Horse Nine with Elsinore‘s Andrew Scott on his heels and Matt Damon (The Odyssey) dropping from 1st to 3rd.

The All of a Sudden momentum benefits Virginie Efira in Best Actress. She joins the projected quintet with Renate Reinsve (Fjord) on the outside looking in. Efira’s costar Tao Okamoto rises in Supporting Actress as does Samantha Morton (The Odyssey) with Mariana di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine) and Olivia Colman (Elsinore) dropping.

You can read all the movement below. I’ll note that The Odyssey is back up to 16 nominations which ties it with Sinners for the all-time record. My next update is coming in two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-2)

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Invite (PR: 7) (E)

8. Obsession (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)

10. All of a Sudden (PR: 13) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

11. Fjord (PR: 6) (-5)

12. Digger (PR: 12) (E)

13. Michael (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Elsinore (PR: 14) (-1)

16. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

17. Ink (PR: 11) (-6)

18. Club Kid (PR: 24) (+6)

19. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

20. The Social Reckoning (PR: 17) (-3)

21. Werwulf (PR: 19) (-2)

22. Being Heumann (PR: 20) (-2)

23. Primetime (PR: 16) (-7)

24. Josephine (PR: 22) (-2)

25. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 18) (-7)

Dropped Out:

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Disclosure Day

A Long Winter

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Cristian Mingiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 13) (E)

14. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Lance Oppenheim, Primetime

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (-4)

14. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (-2)

4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 8) (-2)

11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Jordan Firstman, Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jack O’Connell, Ink

Dominic Sessa, Tony

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 2) (E)

3. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-5)

9. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (+4)

12. Gillian Anderson, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Elizabeth Debicki, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Claire Foy, Ink

Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+7)

8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (E)

10. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (E)

11. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-4)

12. Skyler Gisondo, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Tom Holland, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann

Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Club Kid (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)

7. Tender Loving Care (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Digger (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Possible Love (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Elsinore (PR: 5) (-5)

Dropped Out:

The Drama

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Invite (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Ink (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Primetime (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Possible Love (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Minotaur (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose (PR: 7) (E)

8. Woman Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Coward (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Silent Friend (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Mimesis

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tangles (PR: 4) (E)

5. Iron Boy (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hoppers (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Forgotten Island (PR: 6) (-1)

8. In Waves (PR: 8) (E)

9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (E)

10. Coyote vs. Acme (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Hexed

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. NAZA (PR: 3) (+2)

2. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

3. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (-2)

4. American Doctor (PR: 2) (-2)

5. One in a Million (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. 14th (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 10) (+3)

8. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Nuisance Bear (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Closure (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The History of Concrete

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Debut (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)

8. All of a Sudden (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Fjord (PR: 4) (-5)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Invite

Elsinore

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Digger (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (E)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensbility (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Werwulf (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 8) (E)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)

4. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)

10. You Can See Everything (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Ink

Fjord

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Wicker (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Michael (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Clayface (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. Rose (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Obsession

Is God Is

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Social Reckoning

Wildwood

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out)” from The Debut (PR: 4) (+3)

2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (-2)

4. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Let Me Sell You a Dream” from Musk (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Wildwood

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Backrooms (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Werwulf (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+2)

9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Digger (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Whalefall

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

16 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

8 Nominations

The Debut

6 Nominations

The Invite, Wild Horse Nine

5 Nominations

All of a Sudden, Dune: Part Three

4 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Obsession

2 Nominations

Digger, Fjord, Michael, Toy Story 5, Werwulf

1 Nomination

American Doctor, Backrooms, Being Heumann, By Any Means, Club Kid, Disclosure Day, Ink, Elsinore, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man Brand New Day, Tangles, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood, You Can See Everything

Venice Goes for the Unknown

The jury at the Venice Film Festival have been an unpredictable group over the last few years and the deciders at the 2026 edition have followed suit. As the event draws to a close today, May el-Toukhy’s post-WWII drama Woman Unknown has taken the Golden Lion (the fest’s top prize) with lead Mathilde Arcel as Best Actress. This was not a pic that prognosticators were selecting.

The Dutch production isn’t slated to release in its home country until February 2027. It will be interesting to see of those plans are altered or if a stateside launch comes prior to this year’s end. If so, Unknown is at least a possibility for International Feature Film. However, four of the past five Lion recipients haven’t made it into the BP derby at the Oscars with the exception being 2023’s Poor Things. Unknown probably makes it five of six.

Lee Chang-dong’s Possible Love is the Silver Lion victor (second place). One of the best reviewed features out of Italy, the South Korean drama (already announced as their IFF competitor) and Netflix acquisition is a real threat to make the cut in that race.

Set in a Soviet research facility across five decades, Ilya Khrzhanosky is the Best Director for DAU which could be picked up by a number of countries as their IFF hopeful.

There was some love for domestic product as John Malkovich is Best Actor for Martin McDonagh’s acclaimed Wild Horse Nine. There’s not a strong history between this award at Venice and taking home gold at Oscar. In fact, it has somehow never happened in the 82 previous years. The last Venice recipient to get an Academy nom was Colin Farrell for 2022’s The Banshees of Inisherin. Prior to that, it was Willem Dafoe for At Eternity’s Gate. Malkovich has a real shot at being the first to win both based on WOM from the fest.

Keep clicking on the blog for more Oscar insight and festival reactions!

Oscar Predictions: Wild Horse Nine

Martin McDonagh’s last two features have received Best Picture and screenplay nominations and a combined seven acting mentions yielding two wins. 2017’s Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri had our Best Actress (Frances McDormand) and Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell) victors with Woody Harrelson also up in supporting. The Banshees of Inisherin, while 0 for 4 in podium walks, saw Colin Farrell (Actor), Kerry Condon (Supporting Actress), and Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan (Supporting Actor in contention) in the mix.

So it’s no surprise that Wild Horse Nine, the filmmaker’s latest black comedy, was considered a serious awards contender upon announcement. John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell, Steve Buscemi, Mariana di Girolamo, Ailín Salas, Tom Waits, and Parker Posey are in the ensemble. It has screened at Venice prior and moves to Telluride and Toronto before the November 6th theatrical bow.

Early word-of-mouth from Italy gives it an 83% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 79 on Metacritic. That’s not as high as Billboards or Banshees. However, the strongest reviews indicate this should be a third BP nominee in a row for McDonagh. Directing is more of a question mark while his original screenplay seems like a certainty. Down-the-line inclusion in Casting (a strong possibility), Film Editing, Cinematography, and Original Score are achievable.

One of the biggest question marks has been which performers will rise out of the group. Malkovich has been nominated in Supporting Actor twice – 42 years ago for The Killing Fields and 33 years ago for In the Line of Fire. It appears his first leading nom is coming based on buzz and he might be a threat to win. This is assuming Fox Searchlight campaigns for him there instead of supporting. Until I hear different, I’m making that assumption. Rockwell appears more poised to get attention in that race than Buscemi though it’s worth a reminder that both Banshees boys got in. As for the females providing support, a better than expected haul for Horse could sweep di Girolamo or Posey in. Yet I’m less convinced about both making the cut and I’ve had the former in my projected five since my initial predictions. That may change in my next update. What hasn’t changed is that Wild is an awards player as expected. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

99th Academy Awards Predictions: August 30th Edition

As August closes out and September dawns, film festival season is nearly upon us. Venice begins on Wednesday with Telluride playing out over Labor Day weekend. Between those two events, we are expected to get screenings and critical reaction for Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine, Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut, Danny Boyle’s Ink, Lance Oppenheim’s Primetime, Florian Zeller’s Bunker, Mike Leigh’s Tender Loving Care, Simon Stone’s Elsinore, Andrew Haigh’s A Long Winter, and Werner Herzog’s Bucking Fastard to name a few.

September 10th brings Toronto with their own premieres including Sian Heder’s Being Heumann, Chris Rock’s Misty Green, Susanna White’s Prima Facie, Peter Farrelly’s I Play Rocky, and Bassam Tariq’s Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother.

Needless to say you can expect a bunch of Oscar Prediction posts over the next three weeks. And if history is any guide, my next update in a couple weekends should look quite different.

Away from festival buzz, there was a significant piece of news since my last update two weeks ago. It was announced that Diane Warren is behind the title track to the upcoming By Any Means starring Yayha Abdul-Mateen II and Mark Wahlberg. The songwriter has famously racked up 17 Best Original Song nominations without a win. She currently is up to nine noms in a row since 2017. It would be foolish to not include her in my five predicted tracks.

There’s not a ton of movement in the major races though it is a solid update for The Invite. Olivia Wilde’s dramedy rises to the #1 spot in Adapted Screenplay over The Black Ball with the filmmaker entering the directorial quintet for the first time. She knocks out Phil Lord and Christopher Miller (Project Hail Mary).

You can read all the movement below and expect plenty of posts in the coming days and weeks as the festivals commence!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Fjord (PR: 7) (+1)

7. The Invite (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Debut (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Obsession (PR: 9) (E)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Ink (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Digger (PR: 11) (-1)

13. All of a Sudden (PR: 13) (E)

14. Elsinore (PR: 16) (+2)

15. Michael (PR: 15) (E)

16. Primetime (PR: 18) (+2)

17. The Social Reckoning (PR: 14) (-3)

18. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (-1)

19. Werwulf (PR: 21) (+2)

20. Being Heumann (PR: 22) (+2)

21. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 20) (-1)

22. Josephine (PR: 25) (+3)

23. Disclosure Day (PR: 24) (+1)

24. Club Kid (PR: Not Ranked)

25. A Long Winter (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Fatherland

Artificial

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Lance Oppenheim, Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 2) (E)

3. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, Al of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 12) (+4)

9. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 14) (E)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 4) (E)

5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 12) (+1)

12. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: 15) (E)

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)

7. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (E)

8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (E)

14. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 14) (E)

15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (E)

5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)

8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (E)

10. Guitarradelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (E)

11. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (PR: 15) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tender Loving Care (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Drama (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Primetime (moved to Adapted Screenplay)

Artificial

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Invite (PR: 3) (+2)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)

7. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Original Screenplay)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-2)

10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Sense and Sensibility

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Possible Love (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rose (PR: 7) (E)

8. Coward (PR: 8) (E)

9. Mimesis (PR: 9) (E)

10. Silent Friend (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Beloved

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Tangles (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Iron Boy (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Hoppers (PR: 7) (E)

8. In Waves (PR: 8) (E)

9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. American Doctor (PR: 2) (E)

3. NAZA (PR: Not Ranked)

4. 14th (PR: 3) (-1)

5. One in a Million (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Closure (PR: Not Ranked)

8. Nuisance Bear (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The History of Concrete (PR: 9) (E)

10. Rehearsals for Revolution (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

When a Witness Recants

Musk

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (+1)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Debut (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Digger (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)

9. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Being Heumann

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (E)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Werwulf (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+2)

8. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Invite (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Ink (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Fjord (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Debut

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 1) (E)

2. Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wicker (PR: 7) (+4)

4. Clayface (PR: 4) (E)

5. Rose (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Michael (PR: 5) (-3)

9. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Is God Is (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

The Black Ball

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (E)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)

8. Digger (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Wildwood (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Ink

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. “By Any Means” from By Any Means (PR: Not Ranked)

4. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-2)

7. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (-1)

10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“La Playa” from The Black Ball

TBD from Hexed

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Digger (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Whalefall (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 4) (E)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 6) (E)

7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 7) (E)

8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Odyssey

12 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

8 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

Fjord, The Invite

5 Nominations

The Debut, Dune: Part Three

4 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Elsinore, Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, Disclosure Day, Michael, Rose. Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, By All Means, Clayface, Digger, Fatherland, Ink, Iron Boy, Minotaur, NAZA, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, Whalefall, Wicker. Wildwood

99th Academy Awards Predictions: August 16th Edition

It goes without saying that the upcoming festivals will dramatically reshape the 99th Academy Awards. That’s in addition to numerous fall titles that will premiere beyond the late summer/early autumn festival slots.

There’s also the real chance that Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey could dominate the next ceremony. It has critical and audience love and fantastic box office grosses. Even though Nolan took over the 96th Oscars with Oppenheimer, history could repeat itself. I have it ranked #1 in a whopping 10 races. The Odyssey has held that perch in Picture and Director for a while. Yet for the first time, Matt Damon moves to the pole position in Best Actor with John Leguizamo making his inaugural appearance in the Supporting Actor quintet. My nomination count for Nolan’s epic grows from 14 to 16 and that ties it with last year’s Sinners for most mentions in the Academy’s history.

Another major development in Best Actor is Robert Pattinson (Primetime) moving into the high five with Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!) dipping out. In Supporting Actress, Olivia Colman (Elsinore) is in over Sandra Hüller (Project Hail Mary). Leguizamo’s aforementioned rise in Supporting Actor drops Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine).

Finally, I’m condensing the screenplay derbies from 15 possibilities to 10. You can read all the movement below and expect one final update in two weeks before the madness we call Venice, Telluride, and Toronto begins!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Debut (PR: 5) (E)

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Invite (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Obsession (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

11. Digger (PR: 11) (E)

12. Ink (PR: 13) (+1)

13. All of a Sudden (PR: 12) (-1)

14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 14) (E)

15. Michael (PR: 17) (+2)

16. Elsinore (PR: 15) (-1)

17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 16) (-1)

18. Primetime (PR: Not Ranked)

19. Fatherland (PR: 19) (E)

20. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 18) (-2)

21. Werwulf (PR: 20) (-1)

22. Being Heumann (PR: 21) (-1)

23. Artificial (PR: 24) (+1)

24. Disclosure Day (PR: 22) (-2)

25. Josephine (PR: 23) (-2)

Dropped Out:

I Play Rocky

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 8) (E)

9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 12) (E)

13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)

14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 14) (E)

15. Robert Eggers, Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 4) (E)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: 13) (+4)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+2)

2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: 10) (E)

11. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: 15) (E)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Garfield, Artificial

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)

7. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 14) (+2)

13. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: 15) (E)

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 2) (E)

3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 3) (E)

4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 4) (E)

5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Guittaricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (+1)

11. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+1)

12. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 14) (+1)

14. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Daniel Kaluuya, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Fjord (PR: 3) (E)

4. Obsession (PR: 4) (E)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Elsinore (PR: 7) (E)

8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)

9. Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Artificial (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Drama

Fatherland

I Play Rocky

Josephine

Misty Green

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Invite (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (E)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (+1)

Dropped Out:

Being Heumann

Prima Facie

A Long Winter

Minotaur

Wildwood

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Possible Love (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Rose (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Coward (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Mimesis (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Beloved (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Hoppers (PR: 6) (-1)

8. In Waves (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. American Doctor (PR: 5) (+3)

3. 14th (PR: 2) (-1)

4. One in a Million (PR: 3) (-1)

5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. When a Witness Recants (PR: 10) (+4)

7. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: Not Ranked)

9. The History of Concrete (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Musk (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Closure

Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. White Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Debut (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 9) (+3)

7. Fjord (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Invite (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Being Heumann (PR: 10) (E)

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)

4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fatherland (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Werwulf (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Disclosure Day (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Ink

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Werwulf (PR: 3) (E)

4. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Mother Mary (PR: 10) (E)

Best Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Digger (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Invite (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Debut (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

Fjord

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Werwulf (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Digger (PR: 1) (-1)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Clayface (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wicker (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Rose (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Black Ball (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Is God Is (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Bride!

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)

8. Digger (PR: 8) (E)

9. Ink (PR: 9) (E)

10. Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. “La Nieve” from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E) – previously listed as TBD

3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 4) (+1)

4. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: 6) (+2)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (+1)

7. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-4)

8. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. TBD from Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)

10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

“Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 10) (E)

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (-2)

7. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Whalefall (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Werwulf (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Digger (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: 9) (+4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (-1)

8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 8) (E)

9. The End of Oak Street (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 10) (E)

And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

16 Nominations

The Odyssey

11 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

8 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

The Debut, Dune: Part Three

5 Nominations

Fjord, The Invite

4 Nominations

Behemoth!, Michael

3 Nominations

Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, Digger, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Forgotten Island, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Primetime, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wildwood

99th Academy Awards Predictions: August 2nd Edition

As we enter the month of August, the fall film festival trio of Venice, Telluride, and Toronto are about a month away. Those fests will dramatically reshape the Oscar race for the 99th ceremony. In the meantime, we have Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey racking up terrific box office numbers and continuing to solidify its status as an across-the-board awards player.

There are release date questions while one significant feature has moved to the 2027 calendar. Chloe Domont’s A Place in Hell with Michelle Williams and Daisy Edgar-Jones will come out next spring and that’s why you’ll see it in the dropped out menu in various races including Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, and Original Screenplay. Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven has yet to be dated and appears to be skipping festivals. I’ve made the decision to take it out of contention until a release is scheduled.

On the other hand, Elsinore with Andrew Scott and Olivia Colman from Simon Stone is confirmed to come out this year and it could certainly be a possibility for its stars and elsewhere.

We have a big development in Best Picture and elsewhere. Simply put, I’m skeptical about Digger. It could absolutely get back in the mix once eyeballs are on it. However, Digger drops and The Invite rises. The Digger fall also dramatically shapes the acting races with Tom Cruise plummeting from 1st to 6th in Best Actor. Maybe this will look foolish down the line, but it’s where I’m at now.

You can read all the movement below and expect the next update in two weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. White Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. The Debut (PR: 6) (+1)

6. Fjord (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Behemoth! (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Invite (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Obsession (PR: 10) (E)

Other Possibilities:

11. Digger (PR: 5) (-6)

12. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Ink (PR: 13) (E)

14. The Social Reckoning (PR: 16) (+2)

15. Elsinore (PR: 21) (+6)

16. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 17) (+1)

17. Michael (PR: 20) (+3)

18. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (+1)

19. Fatherland (PR: 18) (-1)

20. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

21. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (+2)

22. Disclosure Day (PR: 24) (+2)

23. Josephine (PR: 25) (+2)

24. Artificial (PR: 22) (-2)

25. I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A Place in Hell

Cry to Heaven

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)

12. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 9) (-3)

13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: 13) (E)

14. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 4) (+2)

3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 3) (E)

4. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (+2)

7. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 11) (+2)

10. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 13) (+1)

13. Léa Seydoux, Gentle Monster (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 14) (E)

15. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell

Mason Reeves, Josephine

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+2)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (-5)

7. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 9) (E)

10. Seth Rogen, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: 13) (+2)

12. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 10) (-2)

13. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: 12) (-1)

14. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 11) (-3)

15. Javier Bardem, The Beloved (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Dominic Sessa, Tony

Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (+3)

4. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 10) (+6)

5. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 14) (+4)

11. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 4) (-7)

12. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (+3)

13. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: 12) (+6)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (-6)

9. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Guitarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 11) (E)

12. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 14) (+2)

13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 13) (E)

14. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 15) (E)

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 2) (E)

3. Fjord (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Obsession (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 2) (-3)

7. Elsinore (PR: 11) (+4)

8. Club Kid (PR: 8) (E)

9. Artificial (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Primetime (PR: 9) (-1)

11. The Drama (PR: 13) (+2)

12. Fatherland (PR: 12) (E)

13 . I Play Rocky (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)

15. Misty Green (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

A Place in Hell

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Invite (PR: 4) (+2)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-1)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: 6) (E)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Being Heumann (PR: 12) (+2)

11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (E)

12. Prima Facie (PR: 14) (+2)

13. A Long Winter (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Minotaur (PR: 15) (+1)

15. Wildwood (PR: 13) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Best International Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PE: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Possible Love (PR: 8) (+3)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Coward (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Rose (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Beloved (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Mimesis (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2) (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Forgotten Island (PR: 4) (E)

5. Tangles (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hoppers (PR: 6) (E)

7. In Waves (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hexed (PR: 10) (E)

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. 14th (PR: 2) (E)

3. One in a Million (PR: 3) (E)

4. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 5) (+1)

5. American Doctor (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 6) (E)

7. Closure (PR: Not Ranked)

8. The History of Concrete (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Everybody to Kenmure Street (PR: Not Ranked)

10. When a Witness Recants (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Rehearsals for a Revolution

Time and Water

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 10) (+3)

8. The Debut (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Being Heumann (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Obsession

Best Cinemtography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Digger (PR: 4) (E)

5. Fatherland (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (-3)

7. Werwulf (PR: 7) (E)

8. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 9) (E)

10. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Disclosure Day

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 4) (E)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. I Love Boosters (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Mother Mary (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)

8. The Invite (PR: 10) (+2)

9. Fjord (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Debut (PR: 9) (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Clayface (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Wicker (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Michael (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Rose (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Is God Is (PR: 10) (-1)

10. The Bride! (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

The Black Ball

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 4) (E)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 7) (E)

8. Digger (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Social Reckoning (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Werwulf

Wildwood

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (+1)

4. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (-1)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “When I’m Home” from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

7. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (-1)

8. “Shape of a Woman” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (E)

10. “Save the Day” from Hoppers (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

TBD from The Odyssey

TBD from Wildwood

TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 7) (E)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 8) (E)

9. Wuthering Heights (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Behemoth! (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Michael (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (E)

7. Whalefall (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-4)

9. Digger (PR: 9) (E)

10. Werwulf (PR: 10) (E)

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Whalefall (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)

7. The End of Oak Street (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Spider-Man: Brand New Day (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (-3)

Dropped Out:

The Mandalorian and Grogu

That equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

10 Nominations

Project Hail Mary

9 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

Behemoth!, Fjord

5 Nominations

Dune: Part Three, The Invite

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, Digger, Toy Story 5

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Disclosure Day, Elsinore, Fatherland, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Possible Love, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Whalefall, Wicker, Wildwood

99th Academy Awards Predictions: July 19th Edition

Moviegoers continue to get new looks at potential Oscar contenders in the last couple of weeks since my last predictions. We got our first extended glimpse for Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu’s Digger and it has sparked plenty of social media chatter for what appears to be a big swing for the filmmaker and Tom Cruise. I could see this going either way. For now I’m keeping it above the line in several of my forecasts.

This is the weekend where Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is dominating the box office with the review embargo having lifted four days ago. The results are impressive with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 89 Metacritic. It is a threat not only to be nominated in Best Picture and Director (which appears automatic) but to win. As I wrote about in my detailed prediction post, the acting races shifted a bit in my calculations. The “in or out” debate regarding Matt Damon continues. However, Anne Hathaway seems to have solidified a spot in Supporting Actress. Her costar Samantha Morton’s inclusion is less likely unless Universal mounts a spirited campaign. As for the Supporting Actors, Robert Pattinson/Tom Holland/John Leguizamo could materialize. Yet I wouldn’t be surprised if no consensus emerges among them and they all miss the cut.

Fall festivals are beginning to announce their lineups. The opener at Venice was revealed to be Danny Boyle’s Ink starring Jack O’Connell, Guy Pearce (as media titan Rupert Murdoch), and Claire Foy. This was a surprise considering the release date was expected to be 2027. It was also announced that Netflix will carry U.S. distribution rights. Now it’s a question mark whether the streamer will choose a limited theatrical engagement in 2026 followed by the small screen output. The high profile Venice slot has me leaning toward a premiere before the calendar year closes. It joins my lineup just on the outside looking in with Pearce projected in Supporting Actor.

Speaking of release date uncertainty, we still don’t know if Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven (an adaptation of an Anne Rice novel) is out this year. I’m still listing it, but it drops out of my BP lineup. The beneficiary of that change is Tony Gilroy’s Behemoth! which unveiled its first trailer this week. Leading man Pedro Pascal also makes the cut for the first time over Sebastian Stan (Fjord). There’s also chatter that Joel Coen’s Jack of Spades is moving to 2027 and I’m moving it outside of my projections at press time.

The Toronto Film Festival’s lineup is beginning trickle out with Sian Heder’s Being Heumann serving as the opener and Prima Facie with Cynthia Erivo tagged as a gala presentation. Paper Tiger from James Gray, which played at Cannes to a mostly positive though not overwhelming reception, will be first out of the gate at the New York Film Festival.

You can read all the movement from the last two weeks below and expect a fresh update in a couple of weeks!

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 5) (+2)

4. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (E)

5. Digger (PR: 3) (-2)

6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Fjord (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (E)

9. Behemoth! (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Obsession (PR: 9) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

11. All of a Sudden (PR: 11) (E)

12. The Invite (PR: 17) (+5)

13. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. A Place in Hell (PR: 14) (E)

15. Cry to Heaven (PR: 10) (-5)

16. The Social Reckoning (PR: 13) (-3)

17. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 15) (-2)

18. Fatherland (PR: 16) (-2)

19. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 19) (E)

20. Michael (PR: 21) (+1)

21. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

22. Artificial (PR: 18) (-4)

23. Being Heumann (PR: 23) (E)

24. Disclosure Day (PR: 20) (-4)

25. Josephine (PR: 22) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Werwulf

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javie Calvo, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 6) (E)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth! (PR: 13) (+5)

9. Curry Barker, Obsession (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden (PR: 10) (E)

11. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut (PR: 11) (E)

12. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Danny Boyle, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (PR: 9) (-5)

15. Pawel Pawlikowski, Fatherland (PR: 12) (-3)

Dropped Out:

Chloe Domont, A Place in Hell

Georgia Oakley, Sense and Sensibility

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut (PR: 2) (+1)

2. Michelle Williams, A Place in Hell (PR: 1) (-1)

3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Sandra Hüller, Rose (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning (PR: 6) (E)

7. Olivia Wilde, The Invite (PR: 15) (+8)

8. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie (PR: 9) (E)

10. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland (PR: 10) (E)

11. Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day (PR: 8) (-3)

12. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann (PR: 12) (E)

13. Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 11) (-2)

14. Sophie Okonedo, Clarissa (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Mason Reeves, Josephine (PR: 14) (-1)

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Tom Cruise, Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Matt Damon, The Odyssey (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth! (PR: 6) (+1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Sebastian Stan, Fjord (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Andrew Scott, Elsinore (PR: 12) (+5)

8. Jaafar Jackson, Michael (PR: 8) (E)

9. Robert Pattinson, Primetime (PR: 10) (+1)

10. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (PR: 7) (-3)

11. Andrew Garfield, Artificial (PR: 9) (-2)

12. Jack O’Connell, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Three (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Dominic Sessa, Tony (PR: 14) (E)

15. Nicholas Hoult, Cry to Heaven (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Rami Malek, The Man I Love

Javier Bardem, The Beloved

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey (PR: 7) (+5)

3. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Sandra Hüller, Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Penélope Cruz, The Invite (PR: 6) (E)

7. Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary (PR: 11) (+3)

9. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Lola Dueñas, The Black Ball (PR: 13) (+3)

11. Eva Victor, Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Olivia Colman, Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

13. Claire Foy, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

14. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey (PR: 10) (-4)

15. Esmé Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility (PR: 9) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Halle Bailey, The Debut

Scarlett Johansson, Paper Tiger

Elizabeth Debicki, The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut (PR: 1) (E)

2. John Goodman, Digger (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Edward Norton, The Invite (PR: 8) (+4)

5. Guy Pearce, Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (E)

8. Colman Domingo, Michael (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Riz Ahmed, Digger (PR: 6) (-3)

10. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey (PR: 4) (-6)

11. Guittarricadelafuente, The Black Ball (PR: 14) (+3)

12. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

13. James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary (PR: 10) (-3)

14. Mark Ruffalo, Being Heumann (PR: 13) (-1)

15. Channing Tatum, Josephine (PR: 11) (-4)

Dropped Out:

Andrew Scott, A Place in Hell

Jesse Plemons, Digger

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Debut (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Digger (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Fjord (PR: 4) (E)

5. Obsession (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Behemoth! (PR: 6) (E)

7. A Place in Hell (PR: 7) (E)

8. Club Kid (PR: 9) (+1)

9. Primetime (PR: 12) (+3)

10. Artificial (PR: 8) (-2)

11. Elsinore (PR: Not Ranked)

12. Fatherland (PR: 13) (+1)

13. The Drama (PR: 15) (+2)

14. Josephine (PR: 14) (E)

15. The Only Living Pickpocket Living in New York (PR: 10) (-5)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. The Invite (PR: 5) (+1)

5. All of a Sudden (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Ink (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (+1)

8. The Social Reckoning (PR: 7) (-1)

9. The Adventures of Cliff Booth (PR: 9) (E)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-4)

11. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 10) (-1)

12. Being Heumann (PR: 11) (-1)

13. Wildwood (PR: 13) (E)

14. Prima Facie (PR: 12) (-2)

15. Minotaur (PR: 14) (-1)

Dropped Out:

A Long Winter

Best International Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Black Ball (PR: 1) (E)

2. Fjord (PR: 2) (E)

3. All of a Sudden (PR: 3) (E)

4. Minotaur (PR: 4) (E)

5. Coward (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 6) (E)

7. Rose (PR: 9) (+2)

8. Possible Love (PR: 7) (-1)

9. Mimesis (PR: 8) (-1)

10. The Beloved (PR: 10) (E)

Best Animated Feature Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. Wildwood (PR: 1) (E)

2. Toy Story 5 (PR: 2 (E)

3. Ray Gunn (PR: 3) (E)

4. Forgotten Island (PR: 7) (+3)

5. Tangles (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Hoppers (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom (PR: 8) (+1)

8. In Waves (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Iron Boy (PR: 9) (E)

10. Hexed (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Minions & Monsters

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem (PR: 1) (E)

2. 14th (PR: Not Ranked)

3. One in a Million (PR: 7) (+4)

4. American Doctor (PR: 6) (+2)

5. To Hold a Mountain (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Nuisance Bear (PR: 2) (-4)

7. The History of Concrete (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Rehearsals for a Revolution (PR: 9) (+1)

9. When a Witness Recants (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Time and Water (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Everybody to Kenmure Street

Best Casting

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 3) (E)

4. Fjord (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Debut (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Digger (PR: 4) (-3)

8. Obsession (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Being Heumann (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Dune: Part Three (PR: 8) (-2)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Behemoth!

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Digger (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Fatherland (PR: 7) (+1)

7. Werwulf (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Cry to Heaven (PR: 6) (-2)

9. Wild Horse Nine (PR: Not Ranked)

10. Disclosure Day (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Sense and Sensibility (PR: 3) (E)

4. Werwulf (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Michael (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 5) (-1)

7. The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 7) (E)

8. Wuthering Heights (PR: 9) (+1)

9. I Love Boosters (PR: 10) (+1)

10. Cry to Heaven (PR: 4) (-6)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Digger (PR: 3) (-1)

5. Behemoth! (PR: 10) (+5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 5) (-1)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (-1)

8. Fjord (PR: 8) (E)

9. The Debut (PR: Not Ranked)

10. The Invite (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Obsession

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Digger (PR: 1) (E)

2. Werwulf (PR: 2) (E)

3. Clayface (PR: 4) (+1)

4. Michael (PR: 5) (+1)

5. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (-2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wicker (PR: Not Ranked)

7. Dune: Part Three (PR: 7) (E)

8. The Black Ball (PR: 6) (-2)

9. The Bride! (PR: 9) (E)

10. Is God Is (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Madden

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (+1)

3. The Black Ball (PR: 2) (-1)

4. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

5. Disclosure Day (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Dune: Part Three (PR: 6) (E)

7. Wild Horse Nine (PR: 8) (+1)

8. Werwulf (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Digger (PR: 7) (-2)

10. Wildwood (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

The Social Reckoning

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “I Knew It, I Knew You” from Toy Story 5 (PR: 1) (E)

2. TBD from The Black Ball (PR: 2) (E)

3. TBD from The Debut (PR: 3) (E)

4. “La Playa” from The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. “How to Write a Song (Without You)” from Power Ballad (PR: 5) (E)

Other Possibilities:

6. “Runway” from The Devil Wears Prada 2 (PR: 6) (E)

7. TBD from The Odyssey (PR: Not Ranked)

8. TBD from Wildwood (PR: Not Ranked)

9. “Chains of Love” from Wuthering Heights (PR: 7) (-2)

10. TBD from The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 10) (E)

Dropped Out:

TBD from Hexed

“Save the Day” from Hoppers

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Odyssey (PR: 1) (E)

2. Dune: Part Three (PR: 3) (+1)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (-1)

4. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (E)

5. Werwulf (PR: 7) (+2)

Other Possibilities:

6. Digger (PR: 6) (E)

7. Backrooms (PR: 10) (+3)

8. Sense and Sensibility (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Cry to Heaven (PR: 5) (-4)

10. Wuthering Heights (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Jack of Spades

The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Sound

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. The Odyssey (PR: 2) (E)

3. Project Hail Mary (PR: 3) (E)

4. Disclosure Day (PR: 6) (+2)

5. Whalefall (PR: Not Ranked)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Black Ball (PR: 4) (-2)

7. Michael (PR: 5) (-2)

8. Behemoth! (PR: Not Ranked)

9. Digger (PR: 8) (-1)

10. Werwulf (PR: 9) (-1)

Dropped Out:

Cry to Heaven

Obsession

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dune: Part Three (PR: 1) (E)

2. Project Hail Mary (PR: 2) (E)

3. The Odyssey (PR: 3) (E)

4. Whalefall (PR: 5) (+1)

5. Godzilla Minus Zero (PR: 4) (-1)

Other Possibilities:

6. Avengers: Doomsday (PR: 6) (E)

7. Disclosure Day (PR: 7) (E)

8. The End of Oak Street (PR: 9) (+1)

9. The Sheep Detectives (PR: 10) (+1)

10. The Mandalorian and Grogu (PR: Not Ranked)

Dropped Out:

Wildwood

That works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:

14 Nominations

The Odyssey

13 Nominations

The Black Ball

9 Nominations

Digger, Project Hail Mary

7 Nominations

Wild Horse Nine

6 Nominations

Fjord

5 Nominations

The Debut, Dune: Part Three

4 Nominations

Behemoth!

3 Nominations

Michael, Obsession, Werwulf

2 Nominations

All of a Sudden, The Invite, A Place in Hell, Toy Story 5, Whalefall

1 Nomination

14th, American Doctor, Clayface, Coward, Forgotten Island, Godzilla Minus Zero, Ink, Minotaur, Once Upon a Time in Harlem, One in a Million, Power Ballad, Ray Gunn, Rose, Sense and Sensibility, Tangles, To Hold a Mountain, Wildwood

Oscar Predictions: The Odyssey

One of the biggest pieces of the Oscar predicting puzzle came into greater focus today with the review embargo having lifted for Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey. The fantasy based on Homer’s ancient epic debuts this weekend with grand box office hopes for Universal. It has long been anticipated to be a major awards player with Matt Damon leading a massive cast that includes (deep breath) Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson, Lupita Nyong’o, Samantha Morton, Zendaya, Charlize Theron, Benny Safdie, Jon Bernthal, John Leguizamo, Bill Irwin, Himesh Patel, Corey Hawkins, Mia Goth, Travis Scott, and Elliot Page.

The reported $250 million production is Nolan’s hotly awaited follow-up to 2023’s Oppenheimer. That nearly billion dollar grossing biopic was an Oscar juggernaut with 13 nominations and 7 victories including Best Picture, Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.). The Odyssey seeks to become Nolan’s fourth feature in contention for BP joining 2010’s Inception, 2017’s Dunkirk, and the aforementioned Oppenheimer.

Let’s dispense with the drama. With 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 88 Metacritic, The Odyssey‘s journey to a Best Picture nomination looks assured and it is a threat to win. Same goes for Nolan’s direction and a number of other categories including Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costume Design, Film Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. That’s 11 noms in the bag already. Makeup and Hairstyling and Original Song (a new tune by Travis Scott and James Blake closes the three-hour experience) are possibilities with the latter perhaps a long shot.

As for the actors, some of my early predictions may have to shift. For weeks, I’ve had Matt Damon on the inside in fifth or on the outside looking in at sixth. That forecast seems accurate though I’m leaning toward him making the cut in what should be a crowded field. Obviously that could change as various works from competitors like Tom Cruise (Digger), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), and Pedro Pascal (Behemoth!) are screened. It would be Damon’s fourth acting nod behind Good Will Hunting, Invictus, and The Martian if he gets in.

Gunning for her third attempt at gold is Anne Hathaway behind 2008’s Rachel Getting Married and a Supporting Actress victory for 2012’s Les Miserables. The buzz indicates that her supporting work is the most assured of inclusion. I’ve her outside of the top 5 most of the time in the past couple of months. Look for that to change in my next round of predictions this weekend.

As for Supporting Actor, there was some chatter for Robert Pattinson and Tom Holland. If either get in, I’d say Pattinson is more likely than Holland. There’s also lots of love for John Leguizamo, but Universal would need to make a conscientious effort to campaign for him. Same goes for Samantha Morton in Supporting Actress. She’s getting raves. However, her performance is limited to one scene and Hathaway may get the sole push.

In a best case scenario, The Odyssey could surpass Oppenheimer‘s nomination haul and even get in the range of the record-setting 16 that Sinners received last year. I suspect my next projections will give it 13-15. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

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