The 31st SAG Awards added to the unpredictability of Oscar night in one week by crowning Conclave as the Best Ensemble recipient. This occurs seven days after it got BAFTA’s largest prize. The correlation between the Academy’s Best Picture and SAG ensemble is 6/10 in the past decade. Conclave still may not be the frontrunner next Sunday but its chances are looking better.
I predicted Wicked would take Ensemble while plenty of others went with Anora. Had the latter emerged victorious, it would’ve solidified frontrunner positioning in BP. Now Oscar night’s biggest race appears to be a three-way contest between Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave with genuine suspense as to what will come out on top.
Ensemble was the only category I missed as I went 5/6 in my projections. I’ll gladly take that in this unpredictable season. Both lead acting derbies were coin flips where I managed to make the right call. Demi Moore (The Substance) won and she now has SAG, Critics Choice, and the Globe with Mikey Madison (Anora) claiming BAFTA. I am still deciding who will take the Oscar.
For Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) picked up his first major trophy over Adrien Brody (The Brutalist). I had a hunch this might happen as the SAG voters ignored Brody’s costars Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce and nominated Chalamet’s cast mates Monica Barbaro and Edward Norton. I’m not convinced the Academy will follow suit, but it’s surely more of a two-way race now.
The supporting fields appear set in stone as Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) have now swept the season. Anyone other than them making podium trips next Sunday would be a rather shocking upset at this juncture.
Finally, The Fall Guy nabbed Best Stunt Ensemble as I figured the movie about stunt performers would.
Keep an eye on the blog as I wrap up my Case Of posts with those final predictions (!) coming Wednesday.
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 