December 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Audiences weren’t digging the leftovers in the first frame of December and it’ll get even worse this weekend. The top 5 could look awfully familiar with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever on top for a fifth time before Avatar: The Way of Water looks to liven up multiplexes beginning December 16th.

There are only two semi-wide newcomers to speak of and I didn’t do individual prediction posts on either. Father Stu: Reborn is a recut version of this spring’s true life drama with Mark Wahlberg and Mel Gibson. It earned a not so heavenly but not terrible $20 million a few months back. This version is PG-13 and not R. I don’t believe it’ll clear $1 million and that puts it outside the top five.

Spoiler Alert, another true life drama and this one featuring Jim Parsons, expands to approximately 600 venues after opening in six theaters this past weekend. It might be lucky to hit a million and that would leave it outside the top five too.

There’s a small chance that Violent Night, the Santa shoot-em-up with David Harbour, could elevate to 1st place after a decent debut (more on that below). However, Black Panther : Wakanda Forever should manage to make it five in a row before James Cameron’s sequel hits.

Meanwhile the battle for third could be close between the third weekend of Disney dud Strange World and the fourth helping of The Menu.

Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

2. Violent Night

Predicted Gross: $8.5 million

3. Strange World

Predicted Gross: $3.1 million

4. The Menu

Predicted Gross: $2.8 million

5. Devotion

Predicted Gross: $1.7 million

Box Office Results (December 2-4)

MCU sequel Black Panther: Wakanda Forever made it four in a row with $17.5 million. That’s under my projection of $21.3 million as the 62% fall was rather steep considering the lack of competition. The total did rise to $393 million.

Violent Night dropped at the higher end of its range with $13.4 million, outpacing my $9.4 million take. The grisly Yuletide tale could manage to play well over the coming holidays.

Strange World continued the embarrassing returns for the Mouse Factory with only $5 million in its sophomore weekend. I was close with $5.2 million. That’s a mere $25 million in its first 12 days.

The Menu was fourth with $3.4 million (I said $3.1 million) as it’s made $24 million thus far.

Devotion had a turbulent 54% plummet in weekend #2 with $2.7 million. I estimated a bit more at $3.3 million. Overall gross is $13 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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