July 2-5 Box Office Predictions

The sequel heavy summer movie season thus far will become even more so over this holiday weekend with the release of The Boss Baby: Family Business and The Forever Purge. Will either manage to topple the record setting F9 from its #1 perch? You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both follow-ups right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/06/22/the-boss-baby-family-business-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2021/06/23/the-forever-purge-box-office-prediction/

The short answer is probably not. F9 (as discussed below) expectedly generated the biggest opening weekend since 2019’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. Previous Fast franchise entries have dropped in the 60% range in their sophomore outings. I would anticipate the same here (especially since F9‘s B+ Cinemascore grade indicates audiences didn’t like quite it as much as previous pics). The four-day holiday could soften its drop a little, but I doubt by much.

I look for Boss Baby to debut in the low 20s over the long frame and that should easily mean the runner-up spot. The Forever Purge is a little tricky. This franchise has shown a commendable durability and the fifth flick could surprise. Yet my mid teens projection gives it a third place showing.

Holdovers A Quiet Place Part II and Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway should fill out the remainder of the top five for an all sequel chart over this Independence Day. And with that, my estimates for Friday-Monday:

1. F9

Predicted Gross: $30.1 million

2. The Boss Baby: Family Business

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million

3. The Forever Purge

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

4. A Quiet Place Part II

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million

5. Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (June 25-27)

F9 garnered the sixth highest debut of the nine Fast flicks with $70 million, racing slightly beyond my $64.8 million estimate. That might have been a bit of a disappointment under normal circumstances, but it is music to the ears of theater owners. As mentioned, the action fest rose to starting heights that haven’t been seen since the Christmas season of 2019.

A Quiet Place Part II stayed put in second with $6.1 million (I said $6.2 million) as its impressive tally reached $136 million. It easily stands as the biggest grosser thus far during the pandemic, though F9 and the forthcoming Black Widow could certainly challenge that.

Hitman’s Bodyguard’s Wife dropped to third in its sophomore frame with $4.8 million, a bit below my $5.6 million projection for a ten-dally total of $25 million.

Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway was fourth with $4.7 million compared to my $4.1 million prediction. The kiddie sequel has taken in $28 million over three weeks.

Cruella rounded out the top five with $3.8 million (I went with $3.3 million) as the Disney live-action tale is up to $71 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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