It has been a decade since a SpongeBob movie was properly located in theaters, but that changes December 19th with The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants. Derek Drymon, a veteran of the Nickelodeon show, handles directorial duties. Voiceover artists from the quarter century plus running series include Tom Kenny, Clancy Brown, and Rodger Bumpass. Some familiar faces behind the mic are George Lopez, Ice Spice, Arturo Castro, Sherry Cola, Regina Hall, and Mark Hamill.
Back in 2004, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Movie opened to $32 million on its way to an $85 million domestic gross. In 2015, sequel Sponge Out of Water improved on those figures with $55 million out of the gate and $162 million overall stateside. In August of 2020, Sponge on the Run didn’t have a proper theatrical output due to the COVID pandemic.
Search is not expected to come close to what the first two franchise entries accomplished. There will be competition for families from the biblical animated tale David as well as Avatar: Fire and Ash. While some forecasts have this achieving mid 20s, I think mid to possibly late teens is a likelier scenario.
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million
For my Avatar: Fire and Ash prediction, click here:
It may be Friday the 13th coming up, but Disney’s live-action Cinderella seems poised to reverse some recent bad luck at the box office. The Kenneth Branagh directed tale, which has been receiving highly positive reviews, should easily dominate the charts this weekend.
Results may not be as positive for the Liam Neeson action thriller Run All Night, which is likely to gross nowhere near what the star’s Taken franchise has accomplished.
They are the two new releases this weekend and you can peruse my detailed predictions posts on each here:
Cinderella and Run All Night should populate spots #1 and #2. The rest of the top five could be a close race between leftovers Chappie, The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, and Focus.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Cinderella
Predicted Gross: $67.8 million
2. Run All Night
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
3. Chappie
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 54%)
4. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 30%)
5. Focus
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)
Box Office Results (March 6-8)
Neill Blomkamp’s sci-fi robot pic Chappie might be able to claim it opened #1, though that’s about the only item the studio can brag about. In what is so far the worst box office weekend of 2015, Chappie debuted to a weak $13.3 million, more than $10 million below my $23.8M estimate. The director has seen diminishing returns from his Oscar nominated District 9 to Elysium to this.
Will Smith’s Focus fell to second in its sophomore frame with $10 million, in line with my $10.2M estimate. Its total stands at an unimpressive $34 million, far under what most movies featuring the Fresh Prince usually earn.
Sequel The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was a lone bright spot with a solid $8.5 million (especially considering its low number of screens). This put it right with my $8.6M projection.
Kingsman: The Secret Service added $8.3 million to its $98 million haul, just over my $7.7M prediction.
I incorrectly had the SpongeBob movie outside of the top five and it placed there with $6.6 million (total: $148M).
That’s because I incorrectly placed the critically drubbed Vince Vaughn comedy Unfinished Business in the top five. It landed with a resounding thud in 10th place with just $4.7 million (I said $8.4M). This is easily Vaughn’s worst opening for a comedy and continues his recent streak of bad luck in theaters.
Lastly, American Sniper achieved a milestone as it has earned $337 million. That officially makes it the highest grossing film of 2014 after edging out the $336 million that the third Hunger Games entry accomplished.
The box office sees three new entries in the marketplace this Friday: Neill Blomkamp’s sci-fi action pic Chappie, the Vince Vaughn comedy Unfinished Business, and comedy/drama sequel The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
It’s hard to imagine Chappie not easily topping the charts, though I’m predicting its opening falls under director Blomkamp’s first two efforts, District 9 and Elysium.
I’m predicting Marigold Hotel will actually slightly outdo Business, which is bad news for the Vince Vaughn flick considering it opens on about twice as many screens.
As for holdovers, while Will Smith’s Focus was #1 for the weekend, its debut was lackluster and I expect it to fall in the mid 40s during sophomore weekend. Current #2 Kingsman: The Secret Service should round out the top five.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Chappie
Predicted Gross: $23.8 million
2. Focus
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 45%)
3. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
4. Unfinished Business
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Kingsman: The Secret Service
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 35%)
Box Office Results (February 27-March 1)
As mentioned, Will Smith’s caper pic Focus managed a first place opening, but not many bragging rights. It opened at $18.6 million, a bit below my $21.3M forecast. This represents the star’s second worst opening in 13 years, behind only the $14.8 million premiere of Seven Pounds in 2008. Smith is simply not the box office draw he once was and Focus, with its mixed reviews, proved that.
Kingsman remained in second place with $11.8 million, ahead of my $9.8M projection. The comic book based hit stands at $85.8M so far.
The SpongeBob movie took third with $10.8 million, above my $9.3M prediction. Its total is at a strong $139.9M.
Fifty Shades of Grey dropped to fourth after two weeks on top of the charts with $10.5 million, right on target with my $10.4M estimate. The three week total is at $147.3M.
Finally, new horror offering The Lazarus Effect failed to generate much audience interest with a ho-hum $10.2 million opening, a bit under my $11.6M prediction.
Two new pictures look to open in first and second this weekend at the box office as Will Smith’s con artist tale Focus and horror flick The Lazarus Effect with Olivia Wilde debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I expect the Focus opening to not nearly be in line with your typical Will Smith action or science fiction extravaganza, but it should be enough to propel it to #1. Lazarus should see just over double digits, which I’ll predict will allow it the runner-up position.
As for holdovers, Fifty Shades of Grey experienced a massive drop-off in its sophomore weekend (more on that below). Its second to third weekend fall shouldn’t be quite as drastic, though I expect it’ll continue to lose more than half its audience. Kingsman: The Secret Service and SpongeBob should both experience percentage declines in the mid 40s and round out the top five.
And with that, my top five predictions for the coming weekend:
1. Focus
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million
2. The Lazarus Effect
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
3. Fifty Shades of Grey
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 53%)
4. Kingsman: The Secret Service
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)
5. The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie: Sponge Out of Water
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 44%)
Box Office Results (February 20-22)
Everyone expected Fifty Shades of Grey to experience a precipitous decline in weekend #2, but 74% is a lot. The picture stayed #1, however, with $22.2 million – below my estimate of $29.2M. The erotic tale has grossed $129.1M so far.
Kingsman: The Secret Service earned $18.3 million in its second weekend and I predicted… $18.3M! Gold star! The comic book adaptation has made $67M and looks to top the century club.
SpongeBob was third in its third frame with $16.5 million, right in line with my $16.8M projection and its total stands at $126.2M.
Of the three newbies over the weekend, the Kevin Costner sports drama fared the best, as I predicted. It made $11 million, just outshining my $9.7M prediction. With a reported budget of only $17M, this was a solid result.
Teen comedy The DUFF, another low budget offering at just $12 million, also did commendable business with $10.8 million, above my $7.9M estimate.
Oscar nominee American Sniper earned $10 million (right under my $11.1M projection) and the gargantuan total for it is at $320M.
Finally, raunchy comedy sequel Hot Tub Time Machine 2 tanked with a tepid $5.9 million, not matching my $8.3M prediction. While the original is a cult hit, audiences clearly weren’t clamoring for a follow-up and highly negative reviews didn’t assist.
Three new titles attempt to take on the lovers of Fifty Shades of Grey and fighters of Kingsman: The Secret Service at the box office this weekend. They are the Kevin Costner sports drama McFarland, USA, raunchy comedy sequel Hot Tub Time Machine 2, and teen comedy The DUFF. You can read my individual prediction posts on each here:
I don’t expect any of the trio to make much headway among audiences and have them debuting at spots 5-7. While Fifty Shades debuted to fabulous results, it is bound to suffer a huge fall in its sophomore frame. The shrewd Valentine’s Day weekend release and rabid fan base of its source material means many filmgoers rushed to see it right away. Even with the anticipated large drop I foresee, it should still remain on top.
Kingsman: The Secret Service also debuted to impressive results over the holiday weekend. It seems destined to lose around half its audience in weekend two. The SpongeBob Movie and American Sniper should stay third and fourth.
And with that, a top seven predictions for the weekend:
1. Fifty Shades of Grey
Predicted Gross: $29.2 million (representing a drop of 65%)
2. Kingsman: The Secret Service
Predicted Gross: $18.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)
3. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)
4. American Sniper
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 33%)
5. McFarland, USA
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
6. Hot Tub Time Machine 2
Predicted Gross: $8.3 million
7. The DUFF
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
Box Office Results (February 13-15)
Fifty Shades of Grey burst onto the box office scene with the highest February opening of all time, surpassing 2004’s The Passion of the Christ. The phenomenon made $85.1 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend, blasting past my $63.1M estimate. It earned $93 million when factoring in Monday’s gross when President’s Day allowed many adults the day off.
Kingsman: The Secret Service brought in the fellas as Fifty brought in the ladies to the tune of $36.2 million, ahead of my $30.6M projection. The comic book based critical hit stands at $41.7 million for the four day weekend.
Last weekend’s champ SpongeBob dropped to third with a strong $31.4 million, besting my $25.7M prediction. The Nickelodeon toon’s total stands at $103.1 million.
American Sniper took fourth with $16.4 million, in line with my $15.3M estimate. Its astonishing cume is at $306 million. Finally, sci fi dud Jupiter Ascending was fifth in its second frame with $9.2 million, a bit ahead of my $7.5 million. It has made just $33 million at press time.
It’s going to be a busy Valentine’s/President’s Day weekend at the box office as two eagerly awaited titles debut: erotic drama Fifty Shades of Grey, based on the massive bestseller and comic book based spy pic Kingsman: The Secret Service. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
The two newbies should populate the top two spots this weekend. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water enjoyed a fabulous debut (more on that below) and should lose around half its audience during its sophomore frame. American Sniper should place fourth while Jupiter Ascending (which suffered a rather dismal beginning) is likely to have a huge fall in its second weekend.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Fifty Shades of Grey
Predicted Gross: $63.1 million
2. Kingsman: The Secret Service
Predicted Gross: $30.6 million
3. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water
Predicted Gross: $25.7 million (representing a drop of 53%)
4. American Sniper
Predicted Gross: $15.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)
5. Jupiter Ascending
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million (representing a drop of 58%)
Box Office Results (February 6-8)
As previously mentioned, Nickelodeon has a fantastic weekend as sequel The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water had the fifth biggest February opening of all time at $55.3 million or double my meager $27.8M projection. Expect a third Sponge-worthy tale soon without the decade long wait.
American Sniper held up stronger in its fourth wide release weekend with $23.2 million. I predicted $17.7M. The Oscar nominated phenomenon stands at $281 million.
Big budget sci fi actioner Jupiter Ascending stumbled out of the gate with just $18.3 million, just below my $20.9M projection. Bad reviews didn’t help and this marks the third Wachowski directed flop in a row after Speed Racer and Cloud Atlas.
Jupiter wasn’t the only fantasy pic dud of the weekend as Seventh Son took in only $7.2 million, a bit under my $8.9M estimate. The Jeff Bridges starring critical disappointment simply didn’t resonate with its target crowd.
Finally, bear tale Paddington rounded out the top five with $5.2 million – right on target with my $5.3M prediction.
The reign of American Sniper is likely to end this first full weekend of February as three new titles debut: animated sequel The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, sci-fi epic Jupiter Ascending, and fantasy pic Seventh Son. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I believe it will be SpongeBob and not Jupiter that will knock Bradley Cooper’s Oscar nominated war pic from its #1 perch, though it could be close. That would leave Sniper dropping to third with Seventh Son debuting fourth and Paddington rounding out the top five.
And with that, a top five predictions for the weekend:
1. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water
Predicted Gross: $27.8 million
2. Jupiter Ascending
Predicted Gross: $20.9 million
3. American Sniper
Predicted Gross: $17.7 million (representing a drop of 42%)
4. Seventh Son
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
5. Paddington
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)
Box Office Results (January 30-February 1)
Bad weather and the Super Bowl truly did have an effect on the box office this weekend as nearly all titles couldn’t quite match my predictions. As anticipated, Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper led the charts for the third week in a row. Yet it dropped much further than my estimate with $30.6 million (I said $42.1M). Regardless it’s made $247M at press time.
With a wholly unimpressive second place debut was Project Almanac, the critically drubbed found footage pic which managed just $8.3 million (far below my $16.4M estimate). With little positive buzz and no recognizable stars, audiences simply chose to ignore it.
Paddington was third with $8.2 million, in line with my $7.7M projection. The bear tale has taken in $50M so far.
The Kevin Costner interracial drama managed an OK start with $6.2 million for fourth, just above my $5.6M prediction.
Jennifer Lopez’s thriller The Boy Next Door dipped from second to fifth with a hefty sophomore drop to $6 million, below my $7.5M projection. The total stands at $24M.
The Wedding Ringer was sixth with $5.6 million (I said $6.7M) and it has made $48M. Oscar nominee The Imitation Game took seventh with $5 million (I predicted $6M) and its impressive total is at $67M.
New thriller The Loft tanked with only $2.7 million – making my $4.8M opening prediction seem way generous. The long delayed pic opened tenth. Same goes for critically acclaimed but Academy ignored A Most Violent Year which made just $1.5 million in its expansion or not even half of my $3.4M projection.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Arriving over a decade after its predecessor, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water hopes to bring in family audiences and fans of the TV show when it opens Friday. If successful, it may end the three week run of American Sniper atop the box office and outdo the performance of the highly touted Jupiter Ascending.
The voice cast from the popular Nickelodeon program is paired with Antonio Banderas and Slash from Guns & Roses (?). With Paddington having made the bulk of its money, there is an opening for family entertainment that SpongeBob aims to fill. 2004’s The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie debuted to $32 million before earning $85 million domestically.
I don’t believe the sequel will quite reach those heights, but a debut in the high 20s certainly seems feasible.
The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water opening weekend prediction: $27.8 million
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