Tag: The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4-6

March 1-3 Box Office Predictions

The month of March blows in some much needed excitement at the box office with Dune: Part Two storming theaters. It looks to dominate the charts with easily the largest debut of 2024 thus far and my detailed prediction post on it can be accessed here:

Dune: Part Two Box Office Prediction

My low to mid 80s take has it doubling the premiere gross of its 2021 predecessor (which had COVID limitations and debuted simultaneously on Max). Those restrictions are gone and it’s generating stronger reviews than part one, which managed 10 Oscar nominations.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8 is available just like the first six shows at multiplexes beginning Thursday. My Friday to Sunday estimate puts it in a battle for fourth place with comic book based dud Madame Web‘s third frame.

Current two-week champ Bob Marley: One Love should slide a spot to 2nd with a mid 40s dip. Ordinary Angels is likely to stay third and with an A+ Cinemascore grade, its decline could be minimal (maybe mid to high teens range).

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training was last weekend’s biggest newcomer and had the largest per theater average of all. Like its predecessor To the Swordsmith Village, it should find itself out of the high five as it’s primarily playing as a one-week engagement.

Here’s how I see the top 5 breaking down:

1. Dune: Part Two

Predicted Gross: $83.6 million

2. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

3. Ordinary Angels

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

4. Madame Web

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

5. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 7-8

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

Box Office Results (February 23-25)

Biopic Bob Marley: One Love felt the love again in first place with $13.4 million in its sophomore outing. It fell an understandable 53% and didn’t match my rosier $16.2 million projection. The overall tally is a buoyant $71 million.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashita Training managed to outdo Swordsmith by around a million bucks with $11.5 million for the runner-up spot. That’s also the margin that it outpaced my $10.5 million call.

Ordinary Angels took in $6.1 million for third, falling below my $8 million forecast. The faith-based drama, as mentioned, is garnering praise from audiences and it could experience small declines in the coming weeks.

Madame Web, after a troubling start, dropped 61% for fourth at $5.9 million (just over my $5.6 million prediction). The subpar total since Valentine’s Day is $35 million.

Migration rounded out the top five with $2.8 million (I said $2.9 million) for $120 million in ten weeks.

Argylle was sixth with $2.7 million compared to my $3 million guesstimate as the spy comedy has made $41 million in four weeks.

Wonka was seventh with $2.4 million. I didn’t project a number for it and the holiday confection hit $214 million after 11 weeks.

Finally, Ethan Coen’s road comedy Drive-Away Dolls stalled in eighth with $2.4 million, in line with my $2.6 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 23-25 Box Office Predictions

Bob Marley: One Love, after a terrific opening well above expectations, looks to make it two weeks in a row atop the charts. Competition comes from Japan’s animated sequel Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training, inspirational drama Ordinary Angels with Hilary Swank, and Ethan Coen’s road comedy Drive-Away Dolls. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newbies here:

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training Box Office Prediction
Ordinary Angels Box Office Prediction
Drive-Away Dolls Box Office Prediction

With a A Cinemascore grade, Marley could be loved enough for a mid to high 40s decline in its sophomore outing. That should put it in the low to mid teens and I figure that’ll be strong enough for the gold.

I have Demon Slayer in the runner-up slot just past $10 million (similar to what predecessor To the Swordsmith Village achieved).

The wildcard might be Ordinary Angels. Faith-based titles can often exceed estimates and I wouldn’t be shocked if it rises to above $10 million. My current projection has it in third.

While Marley outperformed predictions, Madame Web got off to a rocky start and a concerning C+ Cinemascore grade. I’m envisioning a mid 60s plummet and fourth place.

Argylle should round out the top five in a close call with Migration. Then there’s Drive-Away Dolls. Despite a reported 2000 theater rollout, promotion has been scant and it might have to settle for seventh behind Migration.

Here’s how I envision the top 7 playing out:

1. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

2. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

3. Ordinary Angels

Predicted Gross: $8 million

4. Madame Web

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

5. Argylle

Predicted Gross: $3 million

6. Migration

Predicted Gross: $2.9 million

7. Drive-Away Dolls

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (February 16-19)

The affection was evident over Valentine’s Day/President’s Day for Bob Marley: One Love as the biopic (despite so-so reviews) blew away forecasts with $33.6 million from Friday to Monday and $51.5 million since its Wednesday start on Valentine’s Day. That’s way beyond my respective takes of $19.2 million and $28.9 million.

Madame Web got tangled up in bad buzz and poor critical reaction and the financial figures followed suit. Dakota Johnson’s superhero tale made only $15.3 million for the four-day and $26 million since Wednesday. I was more generous at $21.5 million and $30.7 million. As mentioned, look for it to fade rapidly.

Argylle was third with $5.8 million over the long holiday compared to my $4.5 million call. The three-week total is $37 million.

The fourth and fifth place performers were holiday holdovers that I incorrectly had outside of the top five. Migration made $5.3 million to bring its haul to $116 million while Wonka added $4.6 million for $211 million overall.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4-6 was sixth with $3.9 million, not matching my $6.1 million projection. It opened on Thursday so the total is $4.7 million.

Finally, The Beekeeper was seventh at $3.7 million (I said $2.6 million) for $60 million in its coffers.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

February 16-19 Box Office Predictions

As for the trailer for prequel A Quiet Place: Day One debuted this week, multiplexes themselves were even quieter over the Super Bowl weekend. With the Valentine and President’s Day holiday hitting, studios are hoping business gets louder. We have Spider-Man Universe flick Madame Web starring Dakota Johnson and musical biopic Bob Marley: One Love looking to place 1-2 when they open on February 14th. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Madame Web Box Office Prediction
Bob Marley: One Love Box Office Prediction

The top 3 should all be newbies with faith-based The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4-6 beginning on Thursday. On the day before, Madame Web hopes to break a recent run of so-so starts for comic book adaptations. That could be a tall order. I have it opening in the low 20s over the 4-day with low30s when counting the six-day output.

Marley might be close behind with low 20s from Friday to Monday and high 20s when counting Wednesday and Thursday. If it manages to over perform (which could be tricky considering the lackluster reviews), it might contend for the top spot if Web doesn’t match its fairly meager expectations.

Episodes 1-3 of The Chosen‘s fourth season made nearly $6 million from Friday to Sunday in the first weekend of February. Grosses could be about the same even with the extra day thrown in.

Holdovers Argylle and The Beekeeper are likely to populate the remainder of the high five with last weekend’s newcomer Lisa Frankenstein dropping out altogether (more on that below).

Here’s how I think it’ll look and keep in mind that these projections are for Friday thru Monday:

1. Madame Web

Predicted Gross: $21.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate); $30.7 million (Wednesday to Monday estimate)

2. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate); $28.9 million (Wednesday to Monday estimate)

3. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

4. Argylle

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

5. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (February 9-11)

It was the weakest frame since early December 2022 as spy action comedy Argylle plummeted 64% and still managed to stay #1. It made $6.2 million and was right on target with my $6.1 million prediction. The subpar two-week take is $28 million.

Horror comedy Lisa Frankenstein was the only newcomer and it was DOA in second with a putrid $3.6 million. That’s well below my $6.8 million forecast and it should experience a hefty decline in subsequent frames.

The Beekeeper was third at $3.3 million (I said $3.5 million) as Jason Statham’s steady grosser hit $54 million after five weeks.

Holiday holdover Wonka was fourth with $3 million, a shade under my $3.4 million projection. The total is $205 million in its ninth go-round.

Finally, animated Migration rounded out the top five in weekend #8 with $2.9 million compared to my $3.2 million guesstimate. It’s up to $110 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…