My first Oscar predictions in the six major categories for the month of June sees Top Gun: Maverick rising 3 spots to #17 in the BP derby. My ten predicted nominees remain the same as do the five estimated individuals in Director, Actor, and Supporting Actor. There are changes in Actress with Cate Blanchett (Tar) in my five over Danielle Deadwyler (Till) and in Supporting Actress with Hong Chau (The Whale) being elevated over Vanessa Kirby in The Son. You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (E)
5. Women Talking (PR: 6) (+1)
6. The Son (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Bardo (PR: 7) (E)
8. She Said (PR: 9)
9. The Whale (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Empire of Light (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Rustin (PR: 11) (E)
12. Broker (PR: 12) (E)
13. Poor Things (PR: 18) (+5)
14. Amsterdam (PR: 14) (E)
15. Decision to Leave (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Tar (PR: 24) (+8)
17. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: 20) (+3)
18. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 19) (+1)
19. Thirteen Lives (PR: 16) (-3)
20. White Noise (PR: 15) (-5)
21. Elvis (PR: 17) (-4)
22. Next Goal Wins (PR: 23) (+1)
23. Aftersun (PR: 25( +2)
24. Till (PR: 22) (-2)
25. The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Armageddon Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
As May comes to a close and the Cannes Film Festival wraps up, I’m giving you a fresh update in the six major Oscar categories!
In Best Picture, I’m elevating Empire of Light from Sam Mendes into the top ten and that takes Rustin out. The Daniels from Everything Everywhere All at Once vault into Director to the detriment of Sarah Polley for Women Talking.
Empire of Light also benefits in Best Actress with Olivia Colman in over Carey Mulligan from She Said. While Actor and Supporting Actress remain unchanged, there’s two alterations in Supporting Actor with Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere…) and Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) in over John David Washington (Amsterdam) and Tom Hanks (Elvis).
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+2)
5. The Son (PR: 5) (E)
6. Women Talking (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Bardo (PR: 8) (+1)
8. She Said (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Empire of Light (PR: 16) (+7)
10. The Whale (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Rustin (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Decision to Leave (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Amsterdam (PR: 11) (-3)
15. White Noise (PR: 13) (-2)
16. Thirteen Lives (PR: 21) (+5)
17. Elvis (PR: 20) (+3)
18. Poor Things (PR: 14) (-4)
19. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 15) (-4)
20. Top Gun: Maverick (PR: Not Ranked)
21. Armageddon Time (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Till (PR: 18) (-4)
23. Next Goal Wins (PR: 25) (+2)
24. Tar (PR: 17) (-7)
25. Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Woman King
Three Thousand Years of Longing
Don’t Worry Darling
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (E)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 3) (E)
4. Dan Kwan & Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 15) (+6)
10. Hirokazu Kore’eda, Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 8) (-4)
13. David O. Russell, Amsterdam (PR: 13) (E)
14. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
George C. Wolfe, Rustin
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 2) (E)
3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (PR: 9) (+5)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (E)
9. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Laura Dern, The Son (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Viola Davis, The Woman King (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Michelle Williams, Showing Up (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Helen Mirren, Golda (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Ana de Armas, Blonde (PR: 14) (E)
15. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
Tilda Swinton, Three Thousand Years of Longing
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Hugh Jackman, The Son (PR: 1) (E)
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (PR: 2) (E)
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Colman Domingo, Rustin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Austin Butler, Elvis (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Song Kang-Ho, Broker (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Christian Bale, Amsterdam (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Adam Driver, White Noise (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Bardo (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Diego Calva, Babylon (PR: 7 (-3)
11. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Viggo Mortensen, Thirteen Lives (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans (PR: 8) (-5)
14. Paul Mescal, Aftersun (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Joaquin Phoenix, Disappointment Blvd.
Idris Elba, Three Thousand Years of Longing
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Vanessa Kirby, The Son (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Zoe Kazan, She Said (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hong Chau, The Whale (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jean Smart, Babylon (PR: 7) (E)
8. Audra McDonald, Rustin (PR: 13) (+5)
9. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Patricia Clarkson, She Said (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Whoopi Goldberg, Till (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Margot Robbie, Amsterdam (PR: 9) (-3)
13. Dakota Johnson, Cha Cha Real Smooth (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Anne Hathaway, Armageddon Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rooney Mara, Women Talking
Margaret Qualley, Poor Things
Thuso Mbedu, The Woman King
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Brad Pitt, Babylon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jesse Plemons, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 9) (+4)
My second round of Oscar predictions in the six biggest races are before you. When I update them next, we’ll be in the midst of the Cannes Film Festival where some of these hopefuls are screening.
As for category placement changes, I’ve moved Jesse Plemons in Killers of the Flower Moon to Supporting Actor from lead. It remains to be seen which contest he’s placed in. If it is supporting, we shall see if it’s him or Robert De Niro that gets the buzz. I’m betting on the latter at press time.
Let’s get into it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon (Previous Ranking: 1) (E)
2. The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Women Talking (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Son (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 8) (+2)
7. She Said (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Bardo (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Whale (PR: 9) (E)
10. Rustin (PR: 10) (E)
Other Possibilities:
11. Amsterdam (PR: 11) (E)
12. Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
13. White Noise (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Poor Things (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 17) (+2)
16. Empire of Light (PR: 16) (E)
17. Tar (PR: 14) (-3)
18. Till (PR: 15) (-3)
19. Armageddon Time (PR: 25) (+6)
20. Elvis (PR: 22) (+2)
21. Thirteen Lives (PR: 20) (-1)
22. The Woman King (PR: 23) (+1)
23. Three Thousand Years of Longing (PR: 24) (+1)
24. Don’t Worry Darling (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Next Goal Wins (PR: 19) (-6)
Dropped Out:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (PR: 4) (E)
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 6) (E)
7. Florian Zeller, The Son (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria Schrader, She Said (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (PR: 8) (-2)
11. George C. Wolfe, Rustin (PR: 10) (-1)
12. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water (PR: 12) (E)
13. David O. Russell, Amsterdam (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (PR: 11) (-3)
15. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Noah Baumbach, White Noise
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon (PR: 1) (E)
2. Regina King, Shirley (PR: 2) (E)
3. Carey Mulligan, She Said (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emma Stone, Poor Things (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (PR: 8) (E)
Welcome to the first ranked Oscar predictions of the 2022 season for the 95th Academy Awards! I’ll be doing these every few days (once a week or every two weeks) for the high-profile races of Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. In the fall (maybe earlier), this will expand to all categories covering feature lengths films.
For BP, I will list 25 possibilities with 15 hopefuls in the others. Some quick caveats that always apply – titles of the pictures will change. Just this week, David O. Russell’s Canterbury Glass became Amsterdam and Avatar 2 is now Avatar: The Way of Water.
Actors listed in lead will become supporting players and vice versa. Some movies will be pushed to 2023. And, of course, titles listed on the first day of May will become commercial and critical disappointments and drop off the list. Some pics and performances I’m not even considering at the moment will rise during festivals like Cannes, Toronto, Telluride, and Venice.
So let’s get to it, shall we?
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Babylon
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. The Fabelmans
4. The Son
5. Women Talking
6. She Said
7. Bardo
8. Everything Everywhere All at Once
9. The Whale
10. Rustin
Other Possibilities:
11. Amsterdam
12. White Noise
13. Poor Things
14. Tar
15. Till
16. Empire of Light
17. Avatar: The Way of Water
18. Don’t Worry Darling
19. Next Goal Wins
20. Thirteen Lives
21. The Banshees of Inisherin
22. Elvis
23. The Woman King
24. Three Thousand Years of Longing
25. Armageddon Time
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Damien Chazelle, Babylon
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
4. Sarah Polley, Women Talking
5. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Bardo
Other Possibilities:
6. Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
7. Florian Zeller, The Son
8. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale
9. Maria Schrader, She Said
10. George C. Wolfe, Rustin
11. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
12. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
13. Noah Baumbach, White Noise
14. David O. Russell, Amsterdam
15. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Margot Robbie, Babylon
2. Regina King, Shirley
3. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Carey Mulligan, She Said
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Other Possibilities:
6. Cate Blanchett, Tar
7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
8. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody
9. Emma Stone, Poor Things
10. Laura Dern, The Son
11. Viola Davis, The Woman King
12. Greta Gerwig, White Noise
13. Saoirse Ronan, See How They Run
14. Florence Pugh, Don’t Worry Darling
15. Tilda Swinton, Three Thousand Years of Longing
My first forecast for the major Oscar races continues with Best Actor. If you missed the posts covering the supporting categories, you can find them right here:
As I pointed out in my Supporting Actor write-up, we don’t know yet where some heavy hitters will be placed. I projected Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Brad Pitt (Babylon) in supporting, but they could end up here. On the flip side, Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) is listed under Other Possibilities for Actor. We’ll see if he remains here or goes supporting.
Here’s how I have it looking in this extremely early stage. Actress is next!
I can’t help myself. I keep doing my Oscar predictions earlier and earlier each year. Today marks the first edition of my ranked forecasts in the 8 biggest races: Picture, Director, the four acting competitions, and the two screenplay contests.
It probably stands to reason that the sooner you do projections – the more inaccurate they might be. Oh but it’s so very fun to speculate! I do like to put my initial rankings up before the Toronto, Venice, and Telluride Film Festivals make the picture more clear and we are only about a month from that. Those events will bring us early buzz on The Power of the Dog, Dune, Spencer, The Last Duel, The Humans, Parallel Mothers, Belfast, Dear Evan Hansen, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Last Night in Soho, and more.
This post comes about three weeks ahead of when I did this in 2020. That year, to say the least, was hard to figure out. In fact, many of the pictures and performers I had in my 2020 inaugural rankings were moved back to 2021 due to COVID delays. Think Dune, The French Dispatch, West Side Story, Respect, C’Mon C’Mon, Annette, and The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
So how did my first ranked predictions from 2020 pan out? My Best Picture guesstimates yielded three of the eventual nominees: winner Nomadland, Mank, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Nomadland started out of the gate at #2 (behind Mank). Three other contenders were listed under Other Possibilities – The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Minari. Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal were not mentioned.
2 of the 5 director nominees were correctly identified: winner Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) and David Fincher (Mank). None of the other hopefuls (Lee Isaac Chung for Minari, Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman, or Another Round‘s Thomas Vinterberg) were even in Other Possibilities.
In Best Actress, I initially identified 2 – winner Frances McDormand (Nomadland) and Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) were Other Possibilities while Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman didn’t score a listing.
As for Actor, winner Anthony Hopkins (The Father) and Gary Oldman (Mank) made my first cut. I incorrectly had Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) projected here instead of Supporting Actor (which he won). **This is a good time to remind you all that some of the acting contenders thought to be in lead right now will switch to supporting and vice versa. As further evidence, I had Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey) predicted in supporting, but he contended here. I did not yet have Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) or Steven Yeun (Minari) on my radar.
Two Supporting Actress players were correctly called: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) and Olivia Colman (The Father) with Amanda Seyfried (Mank) in Other Possibilities. No mention for the winner Youn Yun-jung in Minari or Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm.
Per above, Daniel Kaluuya’s work in Judas was slotted in lead, but he emerged victorious here. My Supporting Actor picks did get 2 of 5: Lakeith Stanfield in Judas and Sacha Baron Cohen for Chicago 7. The two others (Leslie Odom Jr. in One Night in Miami and Paul Raci in Sound of Metal) went unnoticed at the early stage.
Just one nominee in Original Screenplay got the initial mention – Chicago 7. I did have 3 others (winner Promising Young Woman, Judas, Minari) down for Other Possibilities while Sound of Metal wasn’t mentioned. And in Adapted Screenplay, I only rightly projected Nomadland. Winner The Father, One Night in Miami, and The White Tiger were other possibilities with no mention for Borat.
Whew. OK. I’m not going through all for 2019. However, I will say my results were better two years ago with my first picks (evidence of the uncertainty of last year). The quick rundown: I got 6 of the 9 nominees in Best Picture and identified the remaining three in other possibilities. In Director, it was 4 out of 5. For Actress – 4 for 5 with the other nominee listed sixth. Actor – 3 for 5 with the two others as possibilities. The weak spot was Supporting Actress – just 1 out of 5 with 2 others as possibilities. 2 for 5 in Supporting Actor with 2 others as possibilities. 3 for 5 initially in both screenplay races.
And now we come to 2021. Will I look back next year and be happy with the accuracy or shake my head? Hopefully a mix (that’s probably the best case scenario). In about two months, I will start predictions for all categories covering feature films and whittle BP from 25 to 15 hopefuls with all others going from a projected 15 to 10.
There already was some news from when I penned my early and unranked predictions last week. David O. Russell’s Canterbury Glass, with an all star cast led by Christian Bale and Margot Robbie, has reportedly moved to 2022. It was mentioned in numerous categories (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor – John David Washington) and it now waits its turn until next year. Same story for Taika Waititi’s Next Goal Wins and Blonde from Andrew Dominik.
Let’s get to it!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. House of Gucci
2. The Power of the Dog
3. The Tragedy of Macbeth
4. Nightmare Alley
5. Dune
6. Soggy Bottom
7. Mass
8. West Side Story
9. Belfast
10. Don’t Look Up
Other Possibilities:
11. A Hero
12. CODA
13. Flee
14. The French Dispatch
15. Spencer
16. Tick Tick… Boom!
17. Cyrano
18. The Humans
19. Blue Bayou
20. King Richard
21. The Last Duel
22. Dear Evan Hansen
23. In the Heights
24. Last Night in Soho
25. Annette
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ridley Scott, House of Gucci
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune
3. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
4. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley
5. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Soggy Bottom
7. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero
8. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
9. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
10. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
11. Fran Kranz, Mass
12. Sian Heder, CODA
13. Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Flee
14. Wes Anderson, The French Dispatch
15. Pablo Larrain, Spencer
Best Actress
1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
2. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth
3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
5. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Other Possibilities:
6. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
7. Kristen Stewart, Spencer
8. Emilia Jones, CODA
9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
10. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
11. Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
12. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
13. Jodie Comer, The Last Duel
14. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
15. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
3. Will Smith, King Richard
4. Adam Driver, House of Gucci
5. Amir Jadidi, A Hero
Other Possibilities:
6. Andrew Garfield, Tick Tick… Boom!
7. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey
8. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley
10. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
11. Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
12. Cooper Hoffman, Soggy Bottom
13. Adam Driver, Annette
14. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
15. Nicolas Cage, Pig
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ann Dowd, Mass
2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
3. Martha Plimpton, Mass
4. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
5. Marlee Matlin, CODA
Other Possibilities:
6. Ruth Negga, Passing
7. Olga Merediz, In the Heights
8. Regina King, The Harder They Fall
9. Thomasin McKenzie, The Power of the Dog
10. Toni Collette, Nightmare Alley
11. Judi Dench, Belfast
12. Anya Taylor-Joy, Last Night in Soho
13. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up
14. Audra McDonald, Respect
15. Sally Hawkins, Spencer
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Bradley Cooper, Soggy Bottom
2. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
3. Jason Isaacs, Mass
4. Richard Jenkins, The Humans
5. Idris Elba, The Harder They Fall
Other Possibilities:
6. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth
7. Richard E. Grant, Everybody’s Talking About Jamie
And now we arrive at the big one in my early Oscar predictions for this 2021 season: Best Picture. If you missed my previous posts covering Best Director and the acting derbies, they can accessed here:
In the highly fluent and unpredictable field that encompassed 2020, there were 8 eventual nominees for Picture. As you may recall, for the past 12 ceremonies, the BP contenders can fluctuate anywhere from 5-10 titles (the magic number has been 8 or 9). Starting with 2021, the number is set at 10 (thank you Academy).
Last year, my earliest predictions for this race yielded 3 of the 8 hopefuls – winner Nomadland, Mank, and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Three others (The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari) were mentioned as Other Possibilities. Two (Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal) were not initially mentioned at all.
So let’s get to it! Here are my first picks for the 10 nominees with 15 Other Possibilities.
EARLY OSCAR PREDICTIONS: BEST PICTURE
Belfast
Dune
A Hero
House of Gucci
Mass
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Soggy Bottom
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Other Possibilities:
Annette
Blue Bayou
Canterbury Glass
C’Mon C’Mon
CODA
Cyrano
Don’t Look Up
Flee
The French Dispatch
The Humans
In the Heights
Last Night in Soho
Next Goals Wins
Parallel Mothers
Spencer
Beginning late this week, I will kick off my weekly predictions in these six biggest derbies (as well as both Screenplay races) where the contenders will be ranked. Stay tuned!
As October comes to a close, the Aretha Franklin biopic elected to shift its release date to August 2021. That takes it out of contention for this Oscar season. I have had Jennifer Hudson’s performance as the iconic singer in my top five for a couple of weeks. Her departure makes way for Michelle Pfeiffer in French Exit in the predicted group in a still crowded lead Actress field.
My shifts continue as, after putting Daniel Kaluuya’s work for Judas and the Black Messiah in the supporting category, I’m putting him back in Best Actor. Hopefully Warner Bros. will clear this up soon as the pic still doesn’t have a firm release date. He enters the top five to the detriment of Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal.
His departure from Supporting Actor vaults Mark Rylance in The Trial of the Chicago 7 to first position. It’s worth mentioning that Netflix has confirmed that the sprawling cast for Aaron Sorkin’s historical drama will all be campaigned for in that race. I have also swapped out Kingsley Ben-Adir’s performance in One Night in Miami for his costar Leslie Odom, Jr. The changes continue as I’m now becoming more convinced that the late Chadwick Boseman will be a double nominee for both Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom in lead and for supporting with Da 5 Bloods.
There’s also a switch in Supporting Actress as I’m taking out Saoirse Ronan (Ammonite) and replacing her with Ellen Burstyn for Pieces of a Woman.
All these changes and more are below with my latest round of Thursday predictions!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
7. The Father (PR: 6)
8. Minari (PR: 9)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 13)
11. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
12. Soul (PR: 11)
13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 12)
14. The White Tiger (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Midnight Sky (PR: 15)
Dropped Out:
Respect
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
4. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 7)
9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: 7)
7. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 9)
9. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 4)
5. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actor)
Other Possibilities:
6. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
9. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: 8)
10. Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Stanley Tucci, Supernova
Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 5)
7. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: 9)
8. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Nicole Kidman, The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Mary J. Blige, Respect
Audra McDonald, Respect
Swankie, Nomadland
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
3. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
7. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 10)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 7)
10. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (moved to Best Actor)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. Soul (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 8)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 9)
10. The-Forty-Year-Old-Version (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Palm Springs
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 6)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
9. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
First Cow
Next Goal Wins
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Onward (PR: 4)
4. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Connected (PR: 6)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
8. Lupin III: The First (PR: 9)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Earwig and the Witch
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 1)
2. Crip Camp (PR: 3)
3. Totally Under Control (PR: 2)
4. Boys State (PR: 4)
5. The Dissident (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. Time (PR: Not Ranked)
8. 76 Days (PR: 8)
9. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 7)
10. MLK/FBI (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
I Am Greta
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. New Order (PR: 3)
3. Another Round (PR: 2)
4. The Life Ahead (PR: 7)
5. Night of the Kings (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Disciple (PR: 6)
7. My Little Sister (PR: 4)
8. Wife of a Spy (PR: 10)
9. A Sun (PR: 9)
10. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 6)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
10. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
One Night in Miami
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Death on the Nile (PR: 9)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
8. Rebecca (PR: 6)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. News of the World (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Prom
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 4)
4. News of the World (PR: 3)
5. The Father (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 9)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR 10)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
9. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 6)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Birds of Prey (PR: 2)
3. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)
4. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mank (PR: 4)
7. Mulan (PR: 7)
8. Emma (PR: 3)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Respect
The Personal History of David Copperfield
Death on the Nile
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 4)
3. News of the World (PR: 2)
4. Tenet (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 9)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
10. Ammonite (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Over the Moon
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. ” Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: 3)
3. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)
4. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
5. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 8)
8. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 9)
9. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 7)
10. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Carried Me with You” from Onward
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Mulan (PR: 4)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
4. Rebecca (PR: 7)
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 2)
7. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
8. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Emma
Death on the Nile
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 4)
3. Sound of Metal (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 5)
5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
Other Possibilities:
6. News of the World (PR: 2)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Greyhound (PR: 7)
9. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. The Invisible Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Respect
The Prom
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Mulan (PR: 4)
4. Birds of Prey (PR: 8)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Greyhound (PR: 3)
7. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)
8. The Call of the Wild (PR: 7)
9. Dolittle (PR: 9)
10. The Old Guard (PR: 10)
And this equates to the following pictures getting these numbers in terms of nominations:
11 Nominations
Mank
8 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7 Nominations
News of the World, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Mulan, Tenet
2 Nominations
Birds of Prey, Coming 2 America, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, Over the Moon, Pieces of a Woman
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Emma, French Exit, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, New Order, Night of the Kings, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Sound of Metal, Wolfwalkers
The big news of the week when it comes to Oscar forecasting unquestionably involves Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, the forthcoming Netflix feature starring Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman. The studio has confirmed that the late Mr. Boseman will contend in the lead actor race and that upends my predictions in both that category and Supporting Actor. For weeks, I have had Boseman listed in 1st position in the latter. He now moves to #2 in lead behind Anthony Hopkins in The Father.
This significant move shifts my thinking when it comes to other performers. Most notably, I am now guesstimating that Warner Bros. will campaign for Daniel Kaluuya’s work in Judas and the Black Messiah in the supporting field. To be clear, this is not confirmed and is simply speculation. However, that alteration means Kaluuya is now listed in first for Supporting Actor. This activity also means Boseman could potentially be a double nominee as Netflix is likely to mount a campaign for him with Da 5 Bloods in supporting. I have not listed him in the top ten, but it could certainly happen. The same dynamic applies to Glynn Turman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. In the coming weeks, we will see if Boseman and Turman materialize in the top ten Supporting Actor players.
While the Actor derbies see those changes (which include Bill Murray now making the cut in Supporting Actor for On the Rocks, out tomorrow on Apple TV), Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actress have remained the same.
And with that, let’s see how I have each contest shaping up!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
6. The Father (PR: 7)
7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Minari (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
11. Soul (PR: 11)
12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 13)
13. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 12)
14. Respect (PR: 14)
15. The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
5. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
8. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
9. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 3)
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 4)
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 7)
7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
9. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 6)
10. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting)
3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)
4. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: 8)
9. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: 9)
10. Michael Fassbender, Next Goal Wins (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
George Clooney, The Midnight Sky
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 7)
8. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 8)
9. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Swankie, Nomadland (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Best Actor)
2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: 3)
4. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
7. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 10)
8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
10. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – moved to Best Actor
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Soul (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Promising Young Woman (PR: 9)
9. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 10)
10. Palm Springs (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Respect
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 2)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 4)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 7)
7. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
8. First Cow (PR: 9)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Connected (PR: 6)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 7)
8. Earwig and the Witch (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Lupin III: The First (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane Cannary (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Trolls World Tour
Bombay Rose
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)
2. Totally Under Control (PR: 3)
3. Crip Camp (PR: 1)
4. Boys State (PR: 5)
5. The Dissident (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 6)
7. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 7)
8. 76 Days (PR: 8)
9. I Am Greta (PR: Not Ranked)
10. MLK/FBI (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
Welcome to Chechnya
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. Another Round (PR: 2)
3. New Order (PR: 3)
4. My Little Sister (PR: 9)
5. Night of the Kings (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Disciple (PR: 5)
7. The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 10)
9. A Sun (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wife of a Spy (PR: 6)
Dropped Out:
Atlantis
Ema
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tenet (PR: 8)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
9. One Night in Miami (PR: 10)
10. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
5. Mulan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rebecca (PR: 6)
7. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 9)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
News of the World
Ammonite
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 5)
4. Nomadland (PR: 3)
5. The Father (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
7. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
9. Tenet (PR: 10)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
2. Birds of Prey (PR: 1)
3. Emma (PR: 8)
4. Mank (PR: 2)
5. Coming 2 America (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 5)
7. Mulan (PR: 6)
8. Respect (PR: 7)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The United States vs. Billie Holiday
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
4. Mank (PR: 4)
5. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Over the Moon (PR: 10)
7. Ammonite (PR: 5)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 8)
9. The Midnight Sky (PR: 7)
10. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Tenet
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)
3. “Seen” from The Life Ahead (PR: Not Ranked)
4. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 3)
5. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 4)
8. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 9)
10. “Carry Me with You” from Onward (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
“Love Myself” from The High Note
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. Rebecca (PR: 5)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 9)
9. Emma (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Death on the Nile (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Ammonite
Hillbilly Elegy
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 2)
3. Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
4. Mank (PR: 7)
5. Soul (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 6)
7. Greyhound (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
9. Respect (PR: 9)
10. The Prom (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Midnight Sky
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Greyhound (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)
7. The Call of the Wild (PR: 8)
8. Birds of Prey (PR: 7)
9. Dolittle (PR: 9)
10. The Old Guard (PR: 10)
And that equates to these pictures getting the following number of nominations:
12 Nominations
Mank
9 Nominations
News of the World
8 Nominations
The Trial of the Chicago 7
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
6 Nominations
Nomadland
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father, One Night in Miami
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Mulan
2 Nominations
Coming 2 America, Emma, Hillbilly Elegy, Minari, Over the Moon, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Ammonite, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Dissident, Greyhound, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Life Ahead, The Midnight Sky, My Little Sister, New Order, Night of the Kings, The One and Only Ivan, On the Rocks, Onward, The Personal History of David Copperfield, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Respect, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
The weekly Oscar predictions keep coming as developments from the past 7 days have altered a couple of key races. Most prominent is Best Actress, a potentially crowded field that saw the debut of French Exit with Michelle Pfeiffer. The pic debuted to mixed reviews though critics did praise her work. That said, she moves out of the top 5 and so does Kate Winslet in Ammonite. The two new performers joining the final five: Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy and Jennifer Hudson in Respect.
Speaking of Elegy, the Netflix drama debuted its first trailer this week. Reaction was mixed, but it looks to me that Glenn Close especially solidified her status as a front runner in Supporting Actress.
In Best Actor, there’s movement as well since Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal seems to be gaining steam. He moves into the top five with Tom Hanks in News of the World dropping out. And there’s changes in Supporting Actor where we’re still waiting for category placement to be determined. I moved Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami) back to Supporting and he knocks out Yahya Abdul-Mateen II from The Trial of the Chicago 7.
Lastly, Pixar’s Soul had its review embargo lifted prior to its Christmas streaming release. Feedback is very solid with some critics proclaiming it’s in the upper echelon on the studio’s work. It could become the fourth animated feature to get a Best Picture nod. For now, I’m saying it’s definitely the heavy favorite to win Animated Feature but it could miss the cut in the biggest race of all.
And with that, the updates are below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (Previous Ranking: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
4. News of the World (PR: 4)
5. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
7. The Father (PR: 7)
8. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 8)
9. Minari (PR: 9)
Other Possibilities:
10. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 11)
11. Soul (PR: 10)
12. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 12)
13. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Respect (PR: 14)
15. Ammonite (PR: 13)
Dropped Out:
The White Tiger
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. David Fincher, Mank (PR: 1)
2. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Paul Greengrass, News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
5. Regina King, One Night in Miami (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Florian Zeller, The Father (PR: 6)
7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 7)
8. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
9. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari (PR: 9)
10. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 10)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (PR: 7)
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kate Winslet, Ammonite (PR: 4)
7. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit (PR: 5)
8. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 8)
9. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (PR: 10)
10. Meryl Streep, The Prom (PR: 9)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father (PR: 1)
2. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods (PR: 2)
3. Gary Oldman, Mank (PR: 3)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 4)
5. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal (PR: 8)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tom Hanks, News of the World (PR: 6)
7. Steven Yeun, Minari (PR: 7)
8. Tom Holland, Cherry (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Stanley Tucci, Supernova (PR: Not Ranked)
10. George Clooney, The Midnight Sky (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (moved to Supporting Actor)
Matt Damon, Stillwater
Joaquin Phoenix, C’Mon C’Mon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 1)
2. Olivia Colman, The Father (PR: 2)
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank (PR: 5)
4. Helena Zengel, News of the World (PR: 4)
5. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman (PR: 6)
7. Mary J. Blige, Respect (PR: 10)
8. Audra McDonald, Respect (PR: 7)
9. Natasha Lyonne, The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 9)
10. Swankie, Nomadland (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lily Collins, Mank
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 1)
2. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami (PR: Not Ranked)
4. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
5. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. David Strathairn, Nomadland (PR: 7)
7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks (PR: 6)
8. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
9. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
10. Charles Dance, Mank (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Tom Pelphrey, Mank
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 2)
3. Minari (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
5. Soul (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
7. On the Rocks (PR: 7)
8. Respect (PR: 9)
9. Promising Young Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
Stillwater
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Nomadland (PR: 1)
2. One Night in Miami (PR: 4)
3. The Father (PR: 3)
4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
5. News of the World (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 6)
7. I’m Thinking of Ending Things (PR: 9)
8. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 7)
9. First Cow (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Next Goal Wins (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
French Exit
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 1)
2. Wolfwalkers (PR: 2)
3. Over the Moon (PR: 3)
4. Onward (PR: 4)
5. The Croods: A New Age (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Connected (PR: 7)
7. The Willoughbys (PR: 6)
8. Trolls World Tour (PR: 9)
9. Bombay Rose (PR: 8)
10. Calamity, a Childhood of Martha Jane (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Earwig and the Witch
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Crip Camp (PR: 1)
2. Dick Johnson Is Dead (PR: 2)
3. Totally Under Control (PR: 7)
4. The Dissident (PR: 5)
5. Boys State (PR: 3)
Other Possibilities:
6. All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 4)
7. The Truffle Hunters (PR: 6)
8. 76 Days (PR: 8)
9. MLK/FBI (PR: 9)
10. Welcome to Chechnya (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Notturno
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Quo Vadis, Aida? (PR: 1)
2. Another Round (PR: 2)
3. New Order (PR: 3)
4. Night of the Kings (PR: 4)
5. The Disciple (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wife of a Spy (PR: 7)
7. Atlantis (PR: 9)
8. Ema (PR: Not Ranked)
9. My Little Sister (PR: 6)
10. Never Gonna Snow Again (PR: 8)
Dropped Out:
A Sun
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Nomadland (PR: 2)
3. News of the World (PR: 3)
4. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
5. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 7)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
8. Tenet (PR: 6)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 10)
10. One Night in Miami (PR: 9)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
3. Emma (PR: 3)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 8)
5. Mulan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rebecca (PR: Not Ranked)
7. News of the World (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
9. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: 7)
10. Ammonite (PR: 10)
Dropped Out:
Death on the Nile
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 2)
3. Nomadland (PR: 3)
4. The Father (PR: 7)
5. News of the World (PR: 4)
Other Possibilities:
6. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
7. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 5)
8. Judas and the Black Messiah (PR: 8)
9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 9)
10. Tenet (PR: 10)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Birds of Prey (PR: 1)
2. Mank (PR: 3)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 2)
4. Coming 2 America (PR: 5)
5. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mulan (PR: 4)
7. Respect (PR: 6)
8. Emma (PR: 9)
9. The United States vs. Billie Holiday (PR: 10)
10. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 8)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Soul (PR: 2)
2. News of the World (PR: 3)
3. Da 5 Bloods (PR: 4)
4. Mank (PR: 1)
5. Ammonite (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 5)
7. The Midnight Sky (PR: 8)
8. One Night in Miami (PR: 6)
9. Tenet (PR: 9)
10. Over the Moon (PR: 7)
Dropped Out:
Minari
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Speak Now” from One Night in Miami (PR: 1)
2. “Rocket to the Moon” from Over the Moon (PR: 2)
3. “Turntables” from All In: The Fight for Democracy (PR: 3)
4. “Never Break” from Giving Voice (PR: 4)
5. “Free” from The One and Only Ivan (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 6)
7. “Only the Young” from Miss Americana (PR: 7)
8. “Love Myself” from The High Note (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga (PR: 8)
10. “Carried Me with You” from Onward (PR: 9)
Dropped Out:
“Seen” from The Life Ahead
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mank (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 2)
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 5)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. Rebecca (PR: 7)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 3)
7. Ammonite (PR: 8)
8. The Personal History of David Copperfield (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Judas and and the Black Messiah (PR: 6)
10. Hillbilly Elegy (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Death on the Nile
The Midnight Sky
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. News of the World (PR: 3)
3. Soul (PR: 2)
4. Greyhound (PR: 6)
5. Sound of Metal (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (PR: 8)
7. Mank (PR: 4)
8. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (PR: 7)
9. Respect (PR: 9)
10. The Midnight Sky (PR: 10)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Tenet (PR: 1)
2. The Midnight Sky (PR: 2)
3. Greyhound (PR: 3)
4. Mulan (PR: 4)
5. The Invisible Man (PR: 5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sonic the Hedgehog (PR: 6)
7. Birds of Prey (PR: 8)
8. The Call of the Wild (PR: 7)
9. Dolittle (PR: 10)
10. The Old Guard (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Free Guy
And that means I am estimating the following movies end up with these numbers:
11 Nominations
Mank
9 Nominations
News of the World
7 Nominations
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Trial of the Chicago 7
6 Nominations
Nomadland, One Night in Miami
5 Nominations
Da 5 Bloods, The Father
4 Nominations
Soul
3 Nominations
Hillbilly Elegy, Mulan
2 Nominations
Ammonite, Coming 2 America, Greyhound, Minari, Over the Moon, Sound of Metal, Tenet
1 Nomination
All In: The Fight for Democracy, Another Round, Birds of Prey, Boys State, Crip Camp, The Croods: A New Age, Dick Johnson Is Dead, The Disciple, The Dissident, Emma, Giving Voice, The Invisible Man, Judas and the Black Messiah, The Midnight Sky, New Order, Night of the Kings, The One and Only Ivan, Onward, Pieces of a Woman, Quo Vadis, Aida?, Rebecca, Respect, Totally Under Control, Wolfwalkers
