A trio of new films open this weekend against the second weekend of the massive Marvel hit Captain America: The Winter Soldier. They are the animated sequel Rio 2, horror pic Oculus, and sports themed comedy/drama Draft Day. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/06/rio-2-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/06/draft-day-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/06/oculus-box-office-prediction/
There is no question that Rio 2 stands the greatest chance at taking the top spot over Captain. However, while I believe it should be a close race, I think Steve Rogers and company will maintain their #1 ranking. As for Draft Day and Oculus, there are some box office prognosticators who have each opening higher than my estimates, but I’m predicting they’ll both post lackluster results. Darren Aronofksy’s Noah should round out the top five in weekend #3.
And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
Predicted Gross: $45.3 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. Rio 2
Predicted Gross: $41.7 million
3. Draft Day
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Oculus
Predicted Gross: $11 million
5. Noah
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 56%)
Box Office Results (April 4-6)
As mentioned, Captain America: The Winter Soldier got off to a fantastic debut with $95 million, surpassing my $86.3M projection. This represents the best April opening of all time, beating out Fast Five from three years back. The opening continues the trend of Marvel Studios entries opening higher than their predecessors post Avengers.
In weekend number two, Noah fell a bit further than I figured with $17 million, below my $19.6M estimate. With a precipitous 61% fall, the mediocre word of mouth clearly affected the epic in its sophomore frame. Taking third in weekend #3 was Divergent with $12.9 million, right on track with my $12.8M prediction. I incorrectly had the Christian themed hit God’s Not Dead out of the top six, but it dipped only 12% for a fourth place showing at $7.7 million. Muppets Most Wanted was fifth with $6.2 million, slightly below my $7.1M estimate. Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel was sixth with $6.1 million. My prediction? $6.1 million! Gold star! Finally, Mr. Peabody and Sherman was seventh with $5.1 million, under my $6.3M projection.
That’s all for now, readers! Be sure to check back Monday to see how smart or not smart I am!
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