Unbroken: Path to Redemption Box Office Prediction

This weekend, Harold Cronk (director of God’s Not Dead and its first sequel) has the faith-based war drama God Bless the Broken Road opening in theaters. Next weekend, the busy filmmaker releases Unbroken: Path to Redemption. It is deemed a “spiritual sequel” to 2014’s Unbroken. Pure Flix Entertainment is the distributor and I have a feeling we are about to see one of the largest opening weekend disparities from predecessor to follow-up.

Four years ago, Angelina Jolie made the first entry. It opened on Christmas Day and took in $46 million over the holiday weekend with an eventual domestic haul of $115 million. None of the principles behind that hit are back. Samuel Hunt takes over the lead role that Jack O’Connell played and the supporting cast includes Merritt Patterson, Vanessa Bell Calloway (most known as Eddie Murphy’s arranged wife 30 years ago in Coming to America), Bob Gunton, Gary Cole and evangelist Will Graham (who plays his late grandfather Billy).

I’m not so sure moviegoers are even aware of this sequel’s existence. Redemption is currently slated to premiere on a rather low 1200 screens. I have this weekend’s Harold Cronk movie (Broken Road) estimated at $2.1 million. I’ll bump this one a tad bit more, but not by much.

Unbroken: Path to Redemption opening weekend prediction: $2.5 million

For my The Predator prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/05/the-predator-box-office-prediction/

For my A Simple Favor prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/05/a-simple-favor-box-office-prediction/

For my White Boy Rick prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/06/white-boy-rick-box-office-prediction/

God Bless the Broken Road Box Office Prediction

This Friday, the faith-based military drama God Bless the Broken Road parks in approximately 1200 theaters. To say the pic has an eclectic mix of participants is an understatement. Harold Cronk directs and he’s responsible for distributor Freestyle Releasing largest hit God’s Not Dead and its sequel. It’s based on a song made known by country band Rascal Flatts (which automatically causes me to point out that they hail from my home of Columbus, Ohio). And the cast includes Lindsay Pulsipher, Jordin Sparks, Robin Givens, and former NFL superstar LaDainian Tomlinson.

Quite the grouping, huh? The low number of theaters certainly limits its prospects. That said, pics geared toward Christian audiences can often surprise. We all saw a huge example of that earlier this year when I Can Only Imagine (also based on a song) demolished all expectations.

I don’t see this happening. I think the road for this ends with $3 million as a likely ceiling and I’ll go under that.

God Bless the Broken Road opening weekend prediction: $2.1 million

For my The Nun prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/28/the-nun-box-office-prediction/

For my Peppermint prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/28/peppermint-box-office-prediction/

God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness Box Office Prediction

This Easter weekend, God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness debuts in theaters. It is the third Christian themed drama in a franchise that began four years ago. Michael Mason directs a cast that includes David A.R. White, John Corbett, Shane Harper, Ted McGinley, Jennifer Taylor, Tatum O’Neal, rapper Shwayze, and Cissy Houston (mother of Whitney).

The Pure Flix release finds itself in direct competition with some similar genre fare. This is the third faith-based release in as many weeks. I Can Only Imagine will be in its third weekend and Paul, Apostle of Christ in its second. In 2014, God’s Not Dead premiered to $9.2 million and legged out splendidly to a $60 million domestic gross. Two years later, God’s Not Dead 2 couldn’t match it with a $7.6 million debut and only a $20 million overall total.

Even with the advantage of the Easter opening, the competition and dwindling fortune of part 2 could hinder this. I’ll predict it continues that downward trajectory.

God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million

For my Ready Player One prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/20/ready-player-one-box-office-prediction/

For my Acrimony prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/21/acrimony-box-office-prediction/

The Case for Christ Box Office Prediction

This Friday, The Case for Christ will attempt to capitalize on the upcoming Easter holiday by bringing in faith-based audiences. Pictures in this genre have over performed in the past. Christ focuses on proving the existence of Jesus with a cast that includes Mike Vogel, Erika Christensen, Robert Forster, and Faye Dunaway (last seen accidentally proclaiming La La Land as Best Picture instead of Moonlight).

The pic comes from Pure Flix Entertainment and they specialize in these Christian themed dramas. Their biggest success was 2014’s God’s Not Dead, which surprised prognosticators with a $9 million opening and $60 million eventual domestic gross. Christ is slated to premiere on around 1100 screens, which isn’t a huge number.

I don’t believe this will enter the territory of the studio’s largest success. Instead, I could see a gross similar to their 2015 effort Do You Believe?, which made $3.5 million out of the gate on a similar (1320 screens) number of venues.

The Case for Christ opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million

For my Smurfs: The Lost Village prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/29/smurfs-the-lost-village-box-office-prediction/

For my Going in Style prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/29/going-in-style-box-office-prediction/

God’s Not Dead 2 Box Office Prediction

Two years ago, the faith based drama God’s Not Dead turned into quite the sleeper hit. After opening with a surprisingly robust $9.2 million, it held firmly in subsequent weekends to the tune of a $60 million overall gross.

Now we have a sequel opening next weekend and God’s Not Dead 2 has plenty of similarities to the original. For one – a rather eclectic cast. Part one boasted both TV’s Hercules (Kevin Sorvo) and Superman (Dean Cain). The sequel has Melissa Joan Hart of “Sabrina, the Teeange Witch” fame, “Desperate Housewives” alum Jesse Metcalfe, the late Tennesse Senator and actor Fred Thompson, Mike Tyson’s ex Robin Givens, and fourth Ghostbuster Ernie Hudson. I wasn’t kidding, folks!

The original was made on a reported $2 million budget and while I couldn’t find a reported price tag for this, it’s probably not much and it shouldn’t have much trouble turning a profit. However, that doesn’t mean it’ll earn as much as its predecessor. There has been a bunch of similar genre pics in recent weeks (Miracles from Heaven, Risen, The Young Messiah) and that could have some effect.

I look for this to open in the same range as the first and perhaps just above it, but it may not have the legs to get to an eventual $60M domestic tally.

God’s Not Dead 2 opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million

For my Meet the Blacks prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2016/03/28/meet-the-blacks-box-office-prediction/

Do You Believe? Box Office Prediction

From the filmmakers who brought you God’s Not Dead one year ago comes Do You Believe?, out this Friday. 2014 was a banner year for faith based pictures and Believe looks to continue the trend. The eclectic cast includes Sean Astin, Mira Sorvino, Ted McGinley, Cybill Shepherd, and Brian Bosworth. Wait… Brian Bosworth??

These faith based features have an ability to get congregations out to view them and that has assisted in most of them opening higher than anticipated. God’s Not Dead premiered to just over $9 million a year ago and on far less screens than Believe is slated to. One month later, Heaven is for Real debuted to $22 million. Movies like this are more or less critic proof, so that shouldn’t be a factor.

I do believe that Do You Believe? will open to low double digits, but it could go higher.

Do You Believe? opening weekend prediction: $12.3 million

For my Insurgent prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/14/insurgent-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Gunman, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/03/14/the-gunman-box-office-prediction/

 

Box Office Predictions: April 11-13

A trio of new films open this weekend against the second weekend of the massive Marvel hit Captain America: The Winter Soldier. They are the animated sequel Rio 2, horror pic Oculus, and sports themed comedy/drama Draft Day. You can find my detailed individual prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/06/rio-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/06/draft-day-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/04/06/oculus-box-office-prediction/

There is no question that Rio 2 stands the greatest chance at taking the top spot over Captain. However, while I believe it should be a close race, I think Steve Rogers and company will maintain their #1 ranking. As for Draft Day and Oculus, there are some box office prognosticators who have each opening higher than my estimates, but I’m predicting they’ll both post lackluster results. Darren Aronofksy’s Noah should round out the top five in weekend #3.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Predicted Gross: $45.3 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. Rio 2

Predicted Gross: $41.7 million

3. Draft Day

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Oculus

Predicted Gross: $11 million

5. Noah

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 56%)

Box Office Results (April 4-6)

As mentioned, Captain America: The Winter Soldier got off to a fantastic debut with $95 million, surpassing my $86.3M projection. This represents the best April opening of all time, beating out Fast Five from three years back. The opening continues the trend of Marvel Studios entries opening higher than their predecessors post Avengers.

In weekend number two, Noah fell a bit further than I figured with $17 million, below my $19.6M estimate. With a precipitous 61% fall, the mediocre word of mouth clearly affected the epic in its sophomore frame. Taking third in weekend #3 was Divergent with $12.9 million, right on track with my $12.8M prediction. I incorrectly had the Christian themed hit God’s Not Dead out of the top six, but it dipped only 12% for a fourth place showing at $7.7 million. Muppets Most Wanted was fifth with $6.2 million, slightly below my $7.1M estimate. Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel was sixth with $6.1 million. My prediction? $6.1 million! Gold star! Finally, Mr. Peabody and Sherman was seventh with $5.1 million, under my $6.3M projection.

That’s all for now, readers! Be sure to check back Monday to see how smart or not smart I am!