Tag: Box Office Results

Box Office Predictions: October 16-18

It’s a very bustling weekend at the box office as four new titles make their debuts: Steven Spielberg’s Cold War thriller Bridge of Spies with Tom Hanks, family friendly Goosebumps, Guillermo del Toro’s gothic horror offering Crimson Peak and faith based football drama Woodlawn. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/bridge-of-spies-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/goosebumps-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/08/crimson-peak-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/12/woodlawn-box-office-prediction/

Even with the slew of high profile premieres, they all could fall behind Ridley Scott’s critically acclaimed and audience pleasing The Martian, which looks to three peat. After a great second weekend, the pic is likely to only lose about a third of its audience once again. As I see it, only Bridge of Spies and or Goosebumps could dethrone it, but I’m doubtful.

As for other holdovers, Hotel Transylvania 2 should continue its stellar run in week #4 while box office bomb Pan will probably lose over half its audience, leaving it flailing in sixth place.

And with that, my top 6 projections for what promises to be a fascinating weekend:

  1. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $24.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)

2. Bridge of Spies

Predicted Gross: $21.2 million

3. Goosebumps

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

4. Hotel Transylvania 2

Predicted Gross: $16 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. Crimson Peak

Predicted Gross: $15.8 million

6. Pan

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 55%)

My prediction for Woodlawn, opening on a relatively low 1500 screens, is $4.3 million and that probably puts it in ninth place.

BOX OFFICE RESULTS (OCTOBER 9-11)

As expected, The Martian kept rolling along with its impressive numbers while new entries to the weekend all failed to gain an audience. The Ridley Scott/Matt Damon sci fi blockbuster added $37 million to its coffers, right on pace with my $36.8M estimate to bring its total to $108 million (matching its reported budget).

Hotel Transylvania 2 remained in runner up position with $20.4 million, in line with my $21.7M projection for a three week haul of $116 million.

Another family offering, Peter Pan origin tale Pan, stumbled badly to the tune of a $15.3 million start. This is below my $17.6M prediction. With a rumored budget of $150 million, this represents a massive bomb for Warner Bros and it will struggle to even earn a third of that budget domestically. Ouch.

Holdovers populated spots 4-6: The Intern with $8.6 million compared to my $8M estimate to bring its total to $49 million; Sicario with $7.5 million compared to my $6.9M estimate to bring its total to nearly $27 million; and Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials with $5.3 million for a $70 million overall gross. I incorrectly had Maze outside the top six.

That’s because I gave far too much credit to Robert Zemeckis’s The Walk, which expanded nationwide and posted a paltry seventh place showing of only $3.7 million. I predicted $11.9M. Oops. This easily gave the Oscar winning director of Forrest Gump the worst opening of his long career and pretty much snuffed out any chance of the critically respected effort garnering Academy Awards attention.

Finally, the Andrew Garfield/Michael Shannon thriller 99 Homes opened in limited fashion. I said it’d eek out a $1.8 million gross, but it managed just $647,000.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: October 9-11

October rolls along at the box office as family friendly Pan debuts while The Walk expands and critically approved thriller 99 Homes opens in more limited fashion. You can read my detailed prediction posts on Pan and The Walk right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/01/pan-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/02/the-walk-box-office-prediction/

Pan has been the subject of many negative reviews and it doesn’t help that Hotel Transylvania 2 should still be playing quite well with its intended audience in weekend #3. That leads me to predict that the Peter Pan story will only manage a third place showing out of the gate. The Walk actually had a fairly disappointing roll out in its limited IMAX release and I have it doing low double digits for a fourth place premiere. 99 Homes with Andrew Garfield and Michael Shannon is only opening on approximately 500 screens. It’s flying under the radar and I have it pegged for a gross of $1.8 million, far outside the top five (and maybe even top ten).

As for holdovers, Ridley Scott’s The Martian with Matt Damon blasted off to a terrific debut and word of mouth is strong. I don’t believe its drop will be very big and it should easily repeat at #1, with Hotel Transylvania 2 continuing its impressive haul in the runner up spot. The Intern and Sicario should battle for the five spot.

And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:

  1. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $36.8 million (representing a drop of 32%)

2. Hotel Transylvania 2

Predicted Gross: $21.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)

3. Pan

Predicted Gross: $17.6 milion

4. The Walk

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million

5. The Intern

Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 32%)

6. Sicario

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 43%)

Box Office Results (October 2-4)

As mentioned, The Martian exceeded expectations, capitalizing on stellar reviews for a $54.3 million opening (well beyond my $40.3M estimate). That’s good for the second biggest October premiere of all time, just behind Gravity from 2013. It’s also Matt Damon’s second highest debut after The Bourne Ultimatum. 

Adam Sandler’s animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 2 held up better than my prognostication with $32.9 million in its sophomore frame, compared to my $26.2M forecast. It’s made $90 million so far.

Border thriller Sicario had a pretty sturdy wide release with $12 million, not quite matching my $13M prediction. Strong reviews helped and it hopes to experience fairly small declines in subsequent weekends.

In its second weekend, The Intern with Anne Hathaway and Robert De Niro held up well with $11.6 million compared to my $10.5M estimate and its two week total stands at $36 million.

Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials was fifth with $7.8 million, in line with my $8.2M forecast to bring its gross to $63 million. Sixth place belonged to Black Mass with $5.8 million ($52M total). I incorrectly had it outside the top six because I predicted Everest would be in the spot. It was seventh with $5.6 million (below my $7.7M estimate) to brings its underwhelming total to $33 million.

And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: October 2-4

Two new adult themed titles compete against the second weekend of the record setting animated pic Hotel Transylvania 2. They are the Ridley Scott sci fi pic The Martian with Matt Damon and border crime thriller Sicario, which has earned great reviews and expands nationwide after a stellar limited release. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/26/the-martian-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/27/sicario-box-office-prediction/

The Martian shouldn’t have much trouble opening #1, though my prediction is a bit below what some other prognosticators have it pegged at. I don’t believe it’ll reach the September record that the Transylvania sequel just set, but you never know (more on that below).

Meanwhile, the aforementioned Transylvania 2 should drop to second with all other holdovers dipping in the low to mid 40s range. That could mean a close competition for the five spot between Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Everest while the Anne Hathaway/Robert De Niro comedy The Intern should have fourth to itself.

That means I’m predicting Sicario will open third in its expanded roll out.

And with that, a top six predictions for this weekend:

  1. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $40.3 million

2. Hotel Transylvania 2 

Predicted Gross: $26.2 million (representing a drop of 45%)

3. Sicario

Predicted Gross: $13 million

4. The Intern

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 40%)

5. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 44%)

6. Everest

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 42%)

Box Office Results (September 25-27)

As mentioned, the Adam Sandler animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 2 beat its own predecessor’s record for the biggest September debut in box office history. I incorrectly had it grossing less out of the gate than the original three years ago, but it took in a terrific $47.5 million, blasting past my $34.1M estimate.

The Intern had a stellar debut with $17.7 million, a bit under my $19 million prediction and represents a nice mid size hit for Ms. Hathaway and Mr. De Niro.

Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials dipped to third in its second weekend with $14.2 million, a little under my $16.1M prediction and the YA sequel stands at $51 million.

The mountain climbing action thriller Everest expanded nationally and posted results that were less than expected. It earned $13.2 million, below my $17.6M estimate.

Johnny Depp’s Black Mass rounded out the top five in weekend #2 with $11 million, under my $13.5M forecast. Its two week total is at $42 million.

Finally, Eli Roth’s long delayed horror flick The Green Inferno opened in ninth place with just $3.5 million – though it did exceed my $2.5M prediction.

And that’s all for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 25-27

It could be a highly unpredictable weekend at the box office as three new releases come out and another expands wide. We have Adam Sandler’s animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 2, the Anne Hathaway/Robert De Niro comedy The Intern, and long delayed Eli Roth horror pic The Green Inferno. Additionally, Everest expands wide after its impressive roll out on a few hundred IMAX screens this past week. You can find my detailed prediction posts on the three newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/18/hotel-transylvania-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/19/the-intern-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/19/the-green-inferno-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Transylvania should really have no trouble winning the weekend, though I have it pegged to gross less than its predecessor did three years ago. I also look for The Intern to have a healthy debut just under the $20M range.

The big question mark is Everest. I think the range of grosses for its wide release premiere could be as low as $12 million to as high as the mid-20s range. Ultimately I think it reaches a gross somewhere in the high teens for a third place showing.

The Green Inferno looks like a flop and my $2.5 million estimate for it leaves it well outside the top five.

As for holdovers, current champ Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials should lose close to half its opening audience while Johnny Depp’s Black Mass may not fall quite that far.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. Hotel Transylvania 2

Predicted Gross: $34.1 million

2. The Intern

Predicted Gross: $19 million

3. Everest

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

4. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 47%)

5. Black Mass

Predicted Gross: $13.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)

Box Office Results (September 18-20)

YA sequel Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials got off to a commendable start while not reaching the level its predecessor managed a year. Trials earned $30.3 million, a bit below my $33.8M estimate.

Johnny Depp’s acclaimed Whitney Bulger biopic Black Mass (which is earning Oscar buzz for its star) made $22.6 million out of the gate, below my $27.9M prediction. This is still a nice start and I look for it to continue doing well in subsequent weekends.

M. Night Shyamalan’s The Visit was third in weekend two with $11.5 million, higher than my $9.7M prognostication. The low budget horror title has taken in $42 million so far.

Last weekend’s champ The Perfect Guy dropped to the four spot with $9.6 million, in line with my $10.2M estimate and its two week total stands at $41 million.

The aforementioned Everest was fifth on an IMAX only limited release with $7.2 million, a tad under my $8.6M forecast. Still, its future is looking pretty bright.

Finally, the faith based thriller Captive with David Oyelowo and Kate Mara stalled even worse than I predicted with just $1.3 million for 11th place. I estimated $2.3 million.

And that’ll do it for now, my friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 18-20

Two promising box office prospects hit the multiplexes Friday as YA sequel Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Johnny Depp gangster flick Black Mass roll out. On a more limited number of screens, the hostage drama Captive with David Oyelowo and Kate Mara will also debut. You can find my individual prediction posts on all three here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/10/maze-runner-the-scorch-trials-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/10/black-mass-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/11/captive-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Maze Runner should debut on top but I think the race could be closer than anticipated. In fact, my prediction on Scorch Trials is a bit lower than some of my fellow prognosticators. I look for Mass to have a healthy start with its positive buzz that includes Oscar nomination talk for Depp. As for Captive, my $2.3 million prediction on it should leave outside the top five.

As for holdovers, both The Perfect Guy and The Visit premiered to impressive results (more on that below). Look for both to experience hefty declines in weekend two, but they’ve both already proven to be huge hits for their studios.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

**Blogger’s note: I have altered my predictions as of Tuesday, September 15th due to my predicted gross of Everest, which debuts on approximately 500 screens IMAX screens only Friday. I feel that’ll be enough to get it in the top five. My full prediction post on Everest will be posted on blog Tuesday evening.

  1. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trails

Predicted Gross: $33.8 million

2. Black Mass

Predicted Gross: $27.9 million

3. The Perfect Guy

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 60%)

4. The Visit

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (representing a drop of 61%)

5. Everest

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

Box Office Results (September 11-13)

Thriller The Perfect Guy got off to a great start with $25.8 million over the weekend, outpacing my $21.9M prediction. With a tiny $12 million budget, it managed to double its budget in three days.

M. Night Shyamalan found himself in the position of having a hit once again as The Visit followed closely behind in second with $25.4 million, topping my $17M estimate. With an even tinier budget of $5M budget, it quintupled its meager budget and gave its director his first huge hit since The Village over a decade ago.

Faith based drama War Room dropped to third with $7.7 million, a bit shy of my $8.9M prediction. Its three week total stands at a strong $39M.

A Walk in the Woods dropped to fourth with $4.7 million, falling further my $7.7M forecast and it’s made $20M so far.

I incorrectly didn’t list Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation in my estimates but it took fifth place with $4.1 million to bring its cume to $188M.

That’s because I mistakenly believed another faith based pic, 90 Minutes in Heaven, would perform much stronger than it did. While I had it opening third with $10.5 million, it flopped with just $2 million for a weak ninth place showing. Oops.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 11-13

As the fall box office season gets underway, three new titles open Friday: romantic thriller The Perfect Guy, low budget M. Night Shyamalan horror pic The Visit and faith based drama 90 Minutes in Heaven. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions post on each here:

The Perfect Guy Box Office Prediction

The Visit Box Office Prediction

90 Minutes in Heaven Box Office Prediction

I believe the new releases stand a decent chance at filling the top three slots this weekend. As I see it, The Perfect Guy should take the top spot unless The Visit over performs. I could also see The Visit not doing very well and it remains a large question mark. On a far less number of screens than its competitors, 90 Minutes should have a sturdy start but might be a little hindered by the continuing solid performance of the similarly themed War Room.

Speaking of War Room, I believe it and A Walk in the Woods should both experience smallish declines (par for the course on the post Labor Day weekend) and round out the top five. And with that, my predictions:

  1. The Perfect Guy

Predicted Gross: $21.9 million

2. The Visit

Predicted Gross: $17 million

3. 90 Minutes in Heaven

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million

4. War Room

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 33%)

5. A Walk in the Woods

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

Box Office Results (September 4-7)

As expected, the Labor Day weekend was sluggish but there were surprises to be had… particularly in the top two spots. War Room expanded on its screen count and therefore its numbers and unexpectedly took the #1 spot away from three peat champ Straight Outta Compton. Over the four day holiday, it took in $13.3 million to bring its two week tally to $28 million. I only had it earning $7.7 million. Oops

The other pic doing better than expected business: the Robert Redford travel flick A Walk in the Woods which took second with $10.9 million over the weekend and $12.8 million since its Wednesday bow. It greatly surpassed my respective projections of just $4.3 and $5.8 million. Oops again.

Dipping to third was Straight Outta Compton with $10.8 million, under my $14.3 million estimate. Its terrific four week total stands at $149 million. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation was fourth with $9.4 million (I said $9.9M) for an overall $182 million total.

The Transporter: Refueled opened with a whimper at $9 million, a bit under my $10.2M prediction. The Owen Wilson thriller No Escape was sixth with $7 million (just ahead of my $6M estimate) for a $20M take.

And that’s all for now! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: September 4-7

Unlike most holiday weekend frames, Labor Day isn’t exactly known for studios bringing out heavy hitters and that remains unchanged in 2015. There are two new releases finding their way to theaters over the long weekend: franchise reboot The Transporter: Refueled and Robert Redford led A Walk in the Woods (which opens Wednesday). You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/28/the-transporter-refueled-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/29/a-walk-in-the-woods-box-office-prediction/

I don’t expect much from either. While Transporter has a reasonable shot at debuting #1, a lot of summer holdovers end up doing more Labor Day weekend than they did the previous weekend. If that holds true for Straight Outta Compton, as I believe it will, that means it will be #1 for the fourth straight weekend. As I see it, Transporter could be second or third depending on how well Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation increases its gross. The Christian themed War Room got off to a much better than anticipated start, but I actually see it losing close to a third of its opening weekend audience while No Escape (which also debuted above expectations) may lose about a fourth. That would leave Mr. Redford and his Woods in sixth place.

And with that, my predictions for the four day Labor Day weekend top six:

  1. Straight Outta Compton

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing an increase of 9%)

2. The Transporter: Refueled

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing an increase of 23%)

4. War Room

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)

5. No Escape

Predicted Gross: $6 million

6. A Walk in the Woods

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (Friday to Monday), $5.8 million (Wednesday to Monday)

Box Office Results (August 28-30)

The NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton made it a three peat this weekend with $13.1 million (just above my $12.5M estimate) to bring its impressive total to $134 million. While I pretty much got that right, I stumbled when it came to predicting the weekend’s newcomers.

The aforementioned War Room easily beat expectations with a terrific $11.3 million for second place (surging above my $5.7M prediction). Considering its reported $3M budget, this is a wonderful beginning for it.

Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation took third with $8.1 million, just beyond my $7.4M projection for a total of $170M.

Just behind Mission was the Owen Wilson/Pierce Brosnan thriller No Escape which also made $8.1 million over the traditional weekend and $10.1 million since its Wednesday debut. This outshines my respective predictions of $4.7M and $6.3M and is a better start than most anticipated.

Rounding out the top five was Sinister 2 in its sophomore frame with $4.6 million. I incorrectly had it outside the top five and its two week total is an unimpressive $18M.

Where I really went wrong was with the Zac Efron flick We Are Your Friends, which had an absolutely putrid $1.7 million start for only 13th place. I had it second with $10.9M… oops! Clearly audiences had zero interest in Friends and it managed only an embarrassing $770 per screen average.

And that’s all for now, friends! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 28-30

BLOGGER’S NOTE (Thursday, August 27) – I am revising my top five predictions and accounting for the Christian themed drama War Room (opening on approximately 1100 screens). I believe it will manage to snag the #4 spot.

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/27/war-room-box-office-prediction/

The last weekend of August should bring forth some serious box office doldrums as it usually does this time of year. There are two new entries out: the Zac Efron DJ drama We Are Your Friends and Owen Wilson action thriller No Escape. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/20/we-are-your-friends-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/21/no-escape-box-office-prediction/

I frankly don’t expect much from either, but Friends stands the better chance of over performing and possibly even nabbing the #1 spot. I don’t think it’ll quite get there though and that means Straight Outta Compton should manage to stay #1 for the third weekend in a row. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation should drop from 2nd to 3rd.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

  1. Straight Outta Compton

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. We Are Your Friends

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 37%)

4. War Room

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

5. No Escape

Predicted Gross: $4.7 million (Friday to Sunday), $6.3 million (Wednesday to Sunday prediction)

Box Office Results (August 21-23)

The N.W.A. biopic continued to rule the charts as Straight Outta Compton took in $26.3 million in its sophomore frame, just above my $24.6M estimate. The acclaimed pic has amassed an impressive $111 million in ten days.

Staying in the runner-up spot was Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation which added $11.4 million to its coffers, just ahead of my $10.4M projection. Its total stands at $157M.

Horror sequel Sinister 2 sputtered with just $10.5 million, well below my $16.2M prediction and well under the $18 million earned by the original for its start. Hitman: Agent 47 debuted in fourth with an unremarkable $8.3 million, though it did top my $6M estimate.

The Man from U.N.C.L.E. dropped to fifth in weekend #2 with $7.3 million, in line with my $7.1M prediction. Its sleepy two week total is at $26M. Finally, the Jesse Eisenberg/Kristen Stewart action comedy American Ultra tanked in sixth place with just $5.4 million, falling below my $9.8M estimate.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 21-23

As we enter the doldrums of late August at the box office, we have three new entries populating the multiplexes: horror sequel Sinister 2, Jesse Eisenberg/Kristen Stewart action comedy American Ultra, and video game inspired Hitman: Agent 47. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/13/sinister-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/13/american-ultra-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/13/hitman-agent-47-box-office-prediction/

I don’t expect any of them to outdo the second weekend of current champ Straight Outta Compton, which made a boatload of cash this weekend (more on that below). Sinister 2 seems to be the only one with a shot, as horror films do often over perform. I expect both Ultra and Hitman to premiere under double digits.

Compton should actually drop precipitously in its sophomore frame considering many moviegoers likely wanted to rush out and see it. For comparison sake, Eminem’s 8 Mile dipped 62% in its second weekend and Compton could drop close to that (which is nothing against it considering it made way more out of the gate than anybody figured it would).

As for other holdovers, I look for Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation to eek out a third place showing over Ultra and The Man from U.N.C.L.E. taking the five spot in weekend #2 after its disappointing opening.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top six:

  1. Straight Outta Compton

Predicted Gross: $24.6 million (representing a drop of 59%)

2. Sinister 2

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. American Ultra

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

5. The Man from U.N.C.L.E.

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 47%)

6. Hitman: Agent 47

Predicted Gross: $6 million

Box Office Results (August 14-16)

As mentioned, the NWA biopic Straight Outta Compton capitalized on its great reviews, music, and word of mouth and had a massive opening that exceeded all expectations. The film grossed an astonishing $60.2 million, blasting past my $39.3M estimate. With a reported budget of just $29 million, Compton represents another blockbuster for Universal Pictures in 2015.

Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation dropped to second in weekend #3 with $17.1 million, a bit above my $14.9M projection. The hit fifth entry in Tom Cruise’s franchise stands at $138M so far.

The news was not good for The Man from U.N.C.L.E., which stalled with just a $13.4 million opening, under my $18.6M prediction. Audience attention was clearly elsewhere over the weekend and this planned franchise will likely end here.

Speaking of possibly dead franchises, the news kept getting worse for last weekend’s bomb Fantastic Four. It dropped a dramatic 68% in weekend #2 with just $8.1 million, under my predicted $11.1M. The Fox property has taken in an embarrassing $42M in ten days.

Finally, the Jason Bateman/Joel Edgerton suspense pic The Gift took in $6.5 million in its second weekend, right in line with my $6.3M estimate. The critically applauded film has made a respectable $23M.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: August 14-16

Two high profile releases open up this weekend as the N.W.A. biopic Straight Outta Compton and Guy Ritchie spy thriller The Man from U.N.C.L.E. debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/06/straight-outta-compton-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/08/06/the-man-from-u-n-c-l-e-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, these two newbies should take the top two spots on the charts. I look for Compton to dominate with U.N.C.L.E. having a rather lackluster premiere in the runner-up position.

When it comes to holdovers, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation should drop to third after two weekends in the #1 spot. I look for Fantastic Four to fall hard after its disastrous opening this past weekend (more on that below). The Gift should round out the top five in its sophomore frame.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. Straight Outta Compton

Predicted Gross: $39.3 million

2. The Man from U.N.C.L.E.

Predicted Gross: $18.6 million

3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)

4. Fantastic Four

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)

5. The Gift

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 46%)

Box Office Results (August 7-9)

Let’s get what I got right out of the way. Though I didn’t have it at #1, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation managed to stay on top with $28.5 million, on pace with my $28.1M prediction. In ten days, the Tom Cruise sequel has taken in $107 million.

Now… to the Fantastic Four. Wow. 20th Century Fox’s reboot hoped to start a new franchise but the critically drubbed comic book pic landed with a thud at $25.6 million, way below my $47.7M estimate. This is a truly horrible opening for its genre and its dismal C- Cinemascore average marks the worst ever for a superhero flick. Most of its publicity was negative, including creative differences with the studio and director Josh Trank. That coupled with possible superhero pic fatigue doomed this project and it’s hard to envision a Fantastic Four 2 coming out ever… or at least anytime in the near future until the studio assesses what went so very wrong.

Thriller The Gift debuted third with a reasonable $11.8 million. I incorrectly had it performing better with $16.8M, but this is still a sturdy opening for a low-budget flick with no big box office draws. Solid reviews likely helped.

Holdovers populated the four and five spots and I incorrectly had them both outside the top five. Vacation was fourth in weekend two with $8.9 million for a $37M total so far and Marvel’s Ant-Man was fifth with $7.9 million for a $147M haul.

Two other newcomers fell considerably below my projections. Meryl Streep’s Ricki and the Flash sputtered with just $6.6 million for a seventh place start (I predicted $11.4M). The stop motion animated pic Shaun the Sheep Movie fared worse with only $4 million for an 11th place showing (I said $8.2M).

And that’ll for now, folks! Until next time…