Box Office Predictions: October 23-25

It’s an extremely busy weekend at the box office as five new titles open up: the wide release of the acclaimed Steve Jobs, Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter, sixth franchise entry Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension, Bill Murray comedy Rock the Kasbah, and 80s cartoon live-action adaptation Jem and the Holograms. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

With the quintet of newbies premiering, it’s creating some real unpredictability as to what will come out on top, especially considering the fact that current champ Goosebumps could see a minimal decline in its second weekend due to the Halloween frame.

I’m going with Steve Jobs and its hot Oscar buzz coming out on top, but it could certainly debut a little lower than my estimate with meager drop-offs in subsequent weekends. The Last Witch Hunter could certainly over perform, though it appears unlikely Paranormal Activity has any shot at the top of the charts due to its lower theater count (my individual post on it explains further). Kasbah and Jem seem likely for single digit debuts outside the top five.

As for other holdovers, look for Bridge of Spies to have the tiniest decline of all unless Goosebumps holds up even better than my forecast. Guillermo del Toro’s Crimson Peak is likely to have the worst sophomore decline after its lackluster opening.

And with that, on a supremely unpredictable weekend, my estimates for the top ten:

  1. Steve Jobs

Predicted Gross: $19.6 million

2. Goosebumps

Predicted Gross: $17.8 million (representing a drop of 25%)

3. The Last Witch Hunter

Predicted Gross: $15.8 million

4. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)

5. Bridge of Spies

Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 22%)

6. Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million

7. Rock the Kasbah

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

8. Hotel Transylvania 2

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)

9. Crimson Peak

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 53%)

10. Jem and the Holograms

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

Box Office Results (October 16-18)

Kid friendly Goosebumps managed to knock The Martian off its two week perch on top as it grossed a solid $23.6 million, beyond my $19.4M projection. As mentioned, this should hold up well in weekend #2.

The Martian slipped to second with $21.3 million, a bit under my $24.6M forecast for a terrific three week total of $143M.

Landing in third was Steven Spielberg’s acclaimed Bridge of Spies, posting an OK $15.3 million (compared to my $21.2M estimate). The good news is that Spies should perform well throughout the fall with its own Academy Award buzz going for it.

Crimson Peak flopped in fourth place with just $13.1 million compared to my $15.8M prediction. This one more or less got lost in the shuffle and represents a disappointment for director Guillermo del Toro.

Hotel Transylvania 2 was fifth with $12.6 million, lower than my $16M projection and its total is at $136M.

Languishing in sixth is the bomb Pan with $5.8 million in its second weekend (I said $6.8M). Its embarrassing two week haul is at $25M.

Finally, faith based football drama Woodlawn debuted in ninth (as I predicted) with $4 million, right in line with my $4.3M estimate.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…


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