Box Office Predictions: October 2-4

Two new adult themed titles compete against the second weekend of the record setting animated pic Hotel Transylvania 2. They are the Ridley Scott sci fi pic The Martian with Matt Damon and border crime thriller Sicario, which has earned great reviews and expands nationwide after a stellar limited release. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/26/the-martian-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/27/sicario-box-office-prediction/

The Martian shouldn’t have much trouble opening #1, though my prediction is a bit below what some other prognosticators have it pegged at. I don’t believe it’ll reach the September record that the Transylvania sequel just set, but you never know (more on that below).

Meanwhile, the aforementioned Transylvania 2 should drop to second with all other holdovers dipping in the low to mid 40s range. That could mean a close competition for the five spot between Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Everest while the Anne Hathaway/Robert De Niro comedy The Intern should have fourth to itself.

That means I’m predicting Sicario will open third in its expanded roll out.

And with that, a top six predictions for this weekend:

  1. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $40.3 million

2. Hotel Transylvania 2 

Predicted Gross: $26.2 million (representing a drop of 45%)

3. Sicario

Predicted Gross: $13 million

4. The Intern

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 40%)

5. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 44%)

6. Everest

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 42%)

Box Office Results (September 25-27)

As mentioned, the Adam Sandler animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 2 beat its own predecessor’s record for the biggest September debut in box office history. I incorrectly had it grossing less out of the gate than the original three years ago, but it took in a terrific $47.5 million, blasting past my $34.1M estimate.

The Intern had a stellar debut with $17.7 million, a bit under my $19 million prediction and represents a nice mid size hit for Ms. Hathaway and Mr. De Niro.

Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials dipped to third in its second weekend with $14.2 million, a little under my $16.1M prediction and the YA sequel stands at $51 million.

The mountain climbing action thriller Everest expanded nationally and posted results that were less than expected. It earned $13.2 million, below my $17.6M estimate.

Johnny Depp’s Black Mass rounded out the top five in weekend #2 with $11 million, under my $13.5M forecast. Its two week total is at $42 million.

Finally, Eli Roth’s long delayed horror flick The Green Inferno opened in ninth place with just $3.5 million – though it did exceed my $2.5M prediction.

And that’s all for now, friends! Until next time…

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