Box Office Predictions: September 18-20

Two promising box office prospects hit the multiplexes Friday as YA sequel Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Johnny Depp gangster flick Black Mass roll out. On a more limited number of screens, the hostage drama Captive with David Oyelowo and Kate Mara will also debut. You can find my individual prediction posts on all three here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/10/maze-runner-the-scorch-trials-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/10/black-mass-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/09/11/captive-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Maze Runner should debut on top but I think the race could be closer than anticipated. In fact, my prediction on Scorch Trials is a bit lower than some of my fellow prognosticators. I look for Mass to have a healthy start with its positive buzz that includes Oscar nomination talk for Depp. As for Captive, my $2.3 million prediction on it should leave outside the top five.

As for holdovers, both The Perfect Guy and The Visit premiered to impressive results (more on that below). Look for both to experience hefty declines in weekend two, but they’ve both already proven to be huge hits for their studios.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

**Blogger’s note: I have altered my predictions as of Tuesday, September 15th due to my predicted gross of Everest, which debuts on approximately 500 screens IMAX screens only Friday. I feel that’ll be enough to get it in the top five. My full prediction post on Everest will be posted on blog Tuesday evening.

  1. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trails

Predicted Gross: $33.8 million

2. Black Mass

Predicted Gross: $27.9 million

3. The Perfect Guy

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 60%)

4. The Visit

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (representing a drop of 61%)

5. Everest

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

Box Office Results (September 11-13)

Thriller The Perfect Guy got off to a great start with $25.8 million over the weekend, outpacing my $21.9M prediction. With a tiny $12 million budget, it managed to double its budget in three days.

M. Night Shyamalan found himself in the position of having a hit once again as The Visit followed closely behind in second with $25.4 million, topping my $17M estimate. With an even tinier budget of $5M budget, it quintupled its meager budget and gave its director his first huge hit since The Village over a decade ago.

Faith based drama War Room dropped to third with $7.7 million, a bit shy of my $8.9M prediction. Its three week total stands at a strong $39M.

A Walk in the Woods dropped to fourth with $4.7 million, falling further my $7.7M forecast and it’s made $20M so far.

I incorrectly didn’t list Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation in my estimates but it took fifth place with $4.1 million to bring its cume to $188M.

That’s because I mistakenly believed another faith based pic, 90 Minutes in Heaven, would perform much stronger than it did. While I had it opening third with $10.5 million, it flopped with just $2 million for a weak ninth place showing. Oops.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

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