Box Office Predictions: November 6-8

The box office doldrums over the past couple of weeks should thankfully come to an end with November’s arrival and the release of two very high profile releases: 24th James Bond pic Spectre and Charlie Brown and company returning in the 3D animated The Peanuts Movie. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/29/spectre-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/10/29/the-peanuts-movie-box-office-prediction/

As you’ll see, I have Spectre actually debuting slightly bigger than previous entry Skyfall, though it’s worth noting that some prognosticators have it earning a bit less. We shall see.

The Peanuts Movie should also get off to a sterling start and I expect it to play well into the Thanksgiving season.

The remainder of the top five should be filled with holdover table scraps as the two newbies should dominate the frame.

And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. Spectre

Predicted Gross: $91.3 million

2. The Peanuts Movie

Predicted Gross: $43.4 million

3. The Martian

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. Goosebumps

Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 39%)

5. Bridge of Spies

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 31%)

Box Office Results (October 30-November 1)

In a very quiet Halloween weekend at the multiplexes, The Martian retained its #1 spot for the fourth weekend in five frames with $11.7 million (in range with my $10.8M projection) for a total of $183M. The Ridley Scott/Matt Damon collaboration is just the third movie of 2015 to manage a first place showing for 4 weeks (joining American Sniper and Furious 7). Its impressive reign will certainly come to an end with 007 and Snoopy coming in.

Staying in second was Goosebumps with $9.8 million (a bit under my $11.2M estimate) for a solid three week tally of $56M.

Bridge of Spies continued to hold up well from week to week with $8.3 million, on target with my $8.9M projection and its total stands at $45M.

Spots four and five belonged to holdovers that I incorrectly had outside the top five. Hotel Transylvania 2 was fourth with $5.8 million ($156M total gross) and Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter was fifth with $5.1 million for a weak two weekend total of just $19M.

That’s because the three newcomers that opened all posted less than expected results. Bradley Cooper’s Burnt was sixth with just $5 million, below my $8.9M estimate and represents two flops in a row for the actor after this summer’s Aloha.

Sandra Bullock’s critically panned Our Brand Is Crisis gave the actress the worst wide opening of her career with $3.2 million for eighth place, well below my $7.8M prediction.

And, finally, Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse was dead on arrival for a 12th place showing of $1.8 million, under my $4.2M forecast.

This trio of newcomers represents more October flops in a month full of them, including Steve Jobs, The Last Witch Hunter, Pan, Jem and the Holograms, Rock the Kasbah, Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension, and Crimson Peak.

And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…

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3 thoughts on “Box Office Predictions: November 6-8

  1. Great analysis. Really in depth too.

    Is Bridge of Spies surprising you too? It latched on where Burnt, Steve Jobs, and Crisis couldn’t. I guess Spielberg’s name is the best marketing around.

    I’m going to stay tuned to your weekly column. Great stuff! Hop by taleoftwodans.com sometimes. I do predictions too, with a fellow movie nerd. We do it from 2 generations point of view. Gen X vs Millienial. I hope you like it. You’re inspiring me to do more homework, buddy 😉

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