Box Office Predictions: February 24-26

It’s a weekend where the bulk of movie lovers attention may be focused on Sunday’s Oscar ceremony and not what’s playing in the multiplex itself. There are three releases going wide: Jordan Peele’s race themed horror pic Get Out, animated musical comedy Rock Dog, and Felicity Jones led action thriller Collide. You can peruse my detailed individual predictions on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/15/get-out-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/15/rock-dog-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/02/15/collide-box-office-prediction/

The real question in this last weekend of February, as I see it, is how the critically acclaimed Get Out performs. I have it in the mid teens, which almost certainly means a second place showing to The Lego Batman Movie in its third frame. However, the horror flick certainly has breakout potential and could go higher (61% of my blog readers believe my estimate is too low).

Both Rock Dog and Collide appear headed for dismal showings. My respective predictions of $4.4 million and $2.1 million have them outside of the top five.

And with that, the top 5 predictions for what should be a rather slow weekend:

1. The Lego Batman Movie

Predicted Gross: $22.1 million (representing a drop of 32%)

2. Get Out

Predicted Gross: $16.3 million

3. Fifty Shades Darker

Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of $51%)

4. John Wick: Chapter 2 

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 48%)

5. The Great Wall

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 55%)

Box Office Results (February 17-20)

It was a rather ho-hum Presidents Day Weekend as three newcomers all failed to connect with audiences. The Lego Batman Movie easily maintained the top spot with $42.7 million over the four-day holiday, under my $49.4M estimate. Its total has built up to $107M.

Fifty Shades Darker stayed in second with $22.6 million, in line with my $21.3M prognosis for an overall $91M gross.

Matt Damon’s expensive action epic The Great Wall debuted at a disappointing third with $21.5 million, shy of my $25.6M prediction. With mediocre reviews, look for it to crumble quickly.

John Wick: Chapter 2 was fourth with $18.9 million (I said $21.5M) for a two-week tally of $61M.

The Ice Cube/Charlie Day Fist Fight was punched out by audiences with only a $14.1 opening in fifth, well under my generous $25.1M guesstimate.

Finally, the Gore Verbinski directed A Cure for Wellness was DOA in 11th place with just $5 million (less than half my $10.2M forecast).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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