Tag: Box Office Results

Box Office Predictions: June 15-17

Pixar should easily rule the weekend and it may do so in record-breaking fashion as Incredibles 2 debuts. We also have the openings of comedy Tag and action remake Superfly. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the three of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/05/incredibles-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/05/tag-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/07/superfly-box-office-prediction/

The computer animated superhero sequel arrives nearly 14 years ago after The Incredibles, but anticipation appears sky-high as part 2 looks to set a personal best for the massively successful studio. In order to accomplish that, Incredibles 2 would need to outdo the $135 million achieved out of the gate by Finding Dory two summers ago. My estimate gets it there by just over $3 million.

Tag could potentially serve as decent counter programming, but I’m not quite sold that it breaks out in a significant way. My lower teens projection places it firmly in third behind the sophomore weekend of Ocean’s 8 (which I see losing close to half its audience in weekend #2).

The 4-7 slots could be interesting to watch. One question mark is how Hereditary performs. The horror pic was a hit with critics and easily set an opening weekend record for studio A24. However, its Cinemascore audience grade was a dismal D+. That could mean a hefty sophomore decline. On the other hand, A24’s The Witch was saddled with a C- Cinemascore score and dropped just 42% in its second outing. I have Hereditary dropping over 50% and that should put it in 6th and that would be ahead of Superfly (as my prediction for it has steadily declined since my original post last week). As a reminder, Superfly debuts on Wednesday. That means the 4-5 spots should belong to Solo and Deadpool 2 (and it could be a dead heat between them).

And with that, let’s make it a top 7 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Incredibles 2

Predicted Gross: $138.1 million

2. Ocean’s 8

Predicted Gross: $21.2 million

3. Tag

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

4. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

5. Deadpool 2

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

6. Hereditary

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

7. Superfly

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (Friday to Sunday), $7.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (June 8-10)

Ocean’s 8 got off to a healthy start and came in right in line with most expectations. The female led heist caper achieved the best debut of the franchise with $41.6 million. I was close with $42.6 million.

Solo: A Star Wars Story dropped to second with $15.7 million compared to my $14.3 million estimate. The three-week total is $176 million.

Deadpool 2 was third with $14.1 million (I said $13.2 million) to bring its four-week tally to $279 million.

Hereditary opened on the higher end of expectations in fourth with $13.5 million, topping my $10.2 million estimate. As mentioned, its negative audience reaction could serve as a hindrance for long-term viability.

Avengers: Infinity War rounded out the top 5 with $7.2 million (I said $6.7 million). The Marvel juggernaut is up to $655 million.

Adrift was sixth with $5.2 million and I was a touch higher at $6.1 million. The Shailene Woodley sailing drama has made $21 million in two weeks.

Finally, Hotel Artemis failed to generate many check-ins, opening in 8th place with $3.2 million (below my take of $5 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 8-10

A trio of new titles open wide at the box office this weekend as the unremarkable two-week reign of Solo: A Star Wars Story looks to close. They are the reboot of heist caper franchise Ocean’s 8 with Sandra Bullock and other notable actresses, critically acclaimed horror pic Hereditary, and crime thriller Hotel Artemis. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/30/oceans-8-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/30/hereditary-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/30/hotel-artemis-box-office-prediction/

My low 40s opening for Ocean’s 8 easily puts it in the #1 spot. That estimate gives it the largest debut for the franchise that’s been dormant for over a decade when George Clooney, Matt Damon, Brad Pitt, and others had their trilogy.

The biggest question mark of the weekend to me is undoubtedly Hereditary. Reviews have been terrific, but critical praise doesn’t always equate to major dollars for this genre. Two similarly heralded entries from the same studio – The Witch and It Comes at Night – made less than $10 million out of the gate. Hereditary could potentially suffer the same fate, but I’ve got it pegged to manage low double digits. If the pic over performs, it could nab the #2 spot. If it hits in the range I’m projecting, it would be fourth behind Solo and Deadpool 2. 

Adrift premiered right in line with my expectations and it may find itself in a close race with Avengers: Infinity War for the fifth slot. I’m giving the superheroes an edge.

As for Hotel Artemis, I’m not expecting much and my forecast has gone from $7.7 million to now $5 million over the course of the last week. That number puts it outside the top five.

And with that, my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Ocean’s 8

Predicted Gross: $42.6 million

2. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million

3. Deadpool 2

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Hereditary

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

5. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

6. Adrift

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

Box Office Results (June 1-3) 

All eyes were on how Solo: A Star Wars Story would perform in its second weekend after a majorly lackluster premiere. The verdict? Not good. The Star Wars stand-alone fell a precipitous 65% to $29.3 million, well behind my $37.3 million estimate. The two-week tally stands at $148 million.

Deadpool 2 was second with $23.1 million in weekend #3, topping my $20.9 million projection for $254 million total.

Newcomer Adrift was right in line with my take – placing third at $11.6 million (I said $11.7 million).

Avengers: Infinity War was fourth with $10.5 million, ahead of my $8.6 million projection for $643 million in its considerable coffers.

Book Club rounded out the top five and I didn’t have it in there. It earned $7 million and sits at $47 million overall.

Blumhouse’s Upgrade exceeded my prediction with $4.6 million. I was lower at $2.8 million. The well reviewed sci-fi horror flick’s number is pretty decent considering its meager budget and low 1400 plus theater count.

Last and indeed least, Johnny Knoxville’s Action Point was a complete dud coming in at 9th place with a measly $2.3 million (well below my $6.6 million guesstimate). I wrote about its failure yesterday here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/06/02/the-fade-of-a-jackass/

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: June 1-3

The post Memorial Day weekend gives us a trio of vowel led titles as romantic disaster drama Adrift with Shailene Woodley, Johnny Knoxville comedy Action Point, and Blumhouse horror pic Upgrade all debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/24/adrift-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/23/action-point-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/24/upgrade-box-office-prediction/

I don’t expect any of the newbies to exactly set the box office ablaze, but have Adrift getting over Action Point (if for nothing else than the higher theater count). My meager $2.8 estimate for Upgrade leaves it far outside the top 5.

The top two (and perhaps 3) should remain unchanged, but the real story of the weekend may be how far Solo: A Star Wars Story drops. It shouldn’t have trouble remaining #1, but as discussed in my post from last night, it came in considerably below expectations:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/28/solo-a-star-wars-letdown/

Press chatter since the undeniably disappointing premiere of Solo has solely focused on just that and it could cause the film to take a hefty dip in its sophomore frame. In addition, tent pole features opening over the Memorial weekend typically experience large declines anyway. Last year’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales fell 64%. I believe a better comp might be Indiana Jones and the Crystal Skull from 10 years ago. It made $100 million over the three-day portion of the holiday weekend and dipped 55% in weekend #2. That seems more feasible for Solo, however if it fell over 60% it wouldn’t exactly be shocking.

Deadpool 2 should remain in second place while Avengers: Infinity War could find itself locked in battle for third with Adrift or possibly Action Point. I’m giving Adrift an edge.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the beginning of June:

1. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $37.3 million

2. Deadpool 2

Predicted Gross: $20.9 million

3. Adrift

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million

4. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

5. Action Point

Predicted Gross: $6.6 million

Box Office Results (May 25-28)

As discussed already, Solo: A Star Wars Story came in far below expectations with $103 million over the four-day weekend. That’s, ahem, a bit under my forecast of $151.3 million. Just days ago, the stand-alone Star Wars entry was a strong candidate to break the previous $139 million Memorial Day record held by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End. It ended up as only the 7th highest holiday haul.

Deadpool 2 dropped to second with $53.8 million, in line with my $55.2 million prediction for a two-week total of $218 million.

Avengers: Infinity War was third at $22.4 million (I was right there at $22.5 million) for $627 million overall.

Book Club was fourth with $13.1 million in its second weekend, topping my $11.7 million projection for $35 million total. The comedy is scoring with a female and older audience and turning into a nice midsize summer performer.

Life of the Party rounded out the top five with $6.8 million, topping my $5.3 million prediction. It’s made $40 million total.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 25-28

It’s Memorial Day weekend at the box office and Solo: A Star Wars Story is the solo new release as it looks to dominate the holiday charts. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/15/solo-a-star-wars-story-box-office-prediction/

I believe Solo will manage to just top $150 million for the four-day frame and that would make it the largest Memorial Day opening of all time (topping the $139 million earned by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End in 2007).

The holiday weekend often means small declines for holdovers and I believe that will hold true such titles as Avengers: Infinity War, Book Club, and Life of the Party. That may not apply to Deadpool 2, which will certainly be in second place. The Ryan Reynolds sequel seems likely to lose over 50% of its opening crowd – perhaps even 55% or so.

And with that, my take on the weekend’s top five (keep in mind these are Friday to Monday estimates):

1. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Predicted Gross: $151.3 million

2. Deadpool 2

Predicted Gross: $55.2 million

3. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $22.5 million

4. Book Club

Predicted Gross: $11.7 million

5. Life of the Party

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (May 18-20)

Deadpool 2 easily dominated the weekend, but did so with a little less dollars than most projections include mine. The superhero sequel earned $125.5 million, under my $137.4 million prediction. That’s good for the second biggest R rated debut of all time behind… Deadpool from 2016. Considering its reported $110 million budget, that’s still a hefty haul even though many figured it might manage to just top the original.

Avengers: Infinity War dropped to second after three weeks at #1 with $29.4 million (in line with my $30.8 million projection) for $595 million overall.

Book Club experienced a nice debut in third with $13.5 million, ahead of my $10.3 million estimate. I look for this to have perhaps the smallest drop of any feature over Memorial Day.

Life of the Party was fourth with $7.6 million (I said $8.4 million) for $30 million total.

Breaking In rounded out the top five at $6.8 million (I said $7.2 million) for $29 million in its two weeks.

Finally, family feature Show Dogs failed to bring in its audience with just $6 million. I was higher at $7.9 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

 

Box Office Predictions: May 18-20

Four titles enter the marketplace this weekend with the big-ticket item being Deadpool 2. It should easily achieve the third highest opening so far in 2018 (behind MCU juggernauts Avengers: Infinity War and Black Panther) and knock Infinity from its three-week perch atop the charts. We also have comedy Book Club, family pic Show Dogs, and documentary Pope Francis: A Man of His Word debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/09/deadpool-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/09/book-club-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/10/show-dogs-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/13/pope-francis-a-man-of-his-word-box-office-prediction/

As stated, the return of Ryan Reynolds and his very R-rated superhero should dominate. I have the sequel to the 2016 mega-hit performing slightly over its predecessor, which stormed out of the gate with $132 million in February of 2016. Avengers should drop to second and lose around 50% of its audience.

Book Club, if it manages to reach my high single digits forecast, could place third if Life of the Party loses 50% or more of its audience (which I believe it will). Show Dogs has some sleeper potential, but my projection puts it in a potential dogfight with the second weekend of Breaking In. 

The Pope documentary is debuting on a low 350 screens. While it should have a solid per screen average, my $2.3 estimate puts it towards the lower end of the top ten. And with that, here are my top 6 projections for the weekend:

1. Deadpool 2

Predicted Gross: $137.4 million

2. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $30.8 million

3. Book Club

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

4. Life of the Party

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million

5. Show Dogs

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

6. Breaking In

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

Box Office Results (May 11-13)

Avengers: Infinity War continued its domination in weekend #3 with $62 million (a bit more than my $59.7 million prediction) to bring its gargantuan tally to $548 million. That’s the fourth highest third frame of all time (behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Avatar, and Black Panther). The MCU phenomenon is in 8th place already on the all-time domestic earners list.

Melissa McCarthy experienced a box office disappointment as Life of the Party was second with $17.8 million, under my $19.4 million forecast. It’s her lowest opener so far for a starring vehicle ever since she broke out in 2011 with Bridesmaids. 

The Gabrielle Union thriller Breaking In performed well, debuting in third with $17.6 million. My prediction? $17.6 million! The pic is likely to experience a pretty hefty drop this weekend.

Overboard held up quite impressively in its sophomore frame (perhaps thanks to a Mother’s Day bump) with $9.8 million, easily outpacing my $6.2 million projection. The comedy has earned $30 million so far.

A Quiet Place rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I was a tad lower at $5.3 million) to bring its total gross to $169 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 11-13

Two new titles look to place second and third this weekend as Avengers: Infinity War should continue to dominate the charts. They are the Melissa McCarthy back to college comedy Life of the Party and Gabrielle Union thriller Breaking In. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that pair here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/02/life-of-the-party-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/02/breaking-in-box-office-prediction/

My high teens estimate for Party indeed puts it in the runner-up position with Breaking in mid to high teens for third. I’ve got Avengers grossing just under $60 million in its third frame to easily stay #1 with holdovers Overboard and A Quiet Place rounding out the top five.

And with that, my estimates for the weekend ahead:

1. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $59.7 million

2. Life of the Party

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

3. Breaking In

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

4. Overboard

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million

5. A Quiet Place

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million

Box Office Results (May 4–6)

Avengers: Infinity War continued its chart domination by scoring the second best second weekend ever at $114.7 million, a bit under my $118.1 million forecast. The Marvel juggernaut has amassed $453 million thus far.

Overboard had a healthy opening in second with $14.7 million, topping my $11.8 million estimate. I look for the comedy to have a rather hefty drop this coming weekend.

A Quiet Place was third at $7.7 million (I said $7.3 million) to bring its tally to $160 million.

I Feel Pretty was fourth with $5 million (I was close at $5.2 million) for $37 million overall.

Rampage was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the top 5. It grossed $4.6 million and has made $84 million total.

Tully with Charlize Theron opened meekly in sixth with $3.2 million. I gave it a bit too much credit and had it at $5 million.

Finally, Bad Samaritan bombed in 11th place with just $1.7 million, a tad below my $2.1 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: May 4-6

It’s gonna by May at the box office and there’s a trio of newcomers hitting screens: rom com remake Overboard with Eugenio Derbez and Anna Faris, critically acclaimed comedic drama Tully with Charlize Theron, and horror thriller Bad Samaritan. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

Overboard Box Office Prediction

Tully Box Office Prediction

Bad Samaritan Box Office Prediction

I have none of the trio of newcomers even breaking $10 million. Overboard should lead the pack and is likely to place second. Tully could get a 4th or 5th place showing, coming in behind A Quiet Place or a bit ahead or slightly behind I Feel Pretty. My $2.1 million estimate for Bad Samaritan leaves it outside the top 5.

This weekend will once again be all about the superheroes as Avengers: Infinity War enters its sophomore frame after its record shattering debut (more on that below). So how will Iron Man, Captain America, Thor, and so many others hold up in weekend #2? 2012’s The Avengers dropped 50% in its sophomore outing with 2015’s Avengers: Age of Ultron falling 59%. I have this dropping somewhere in between. Let’s put it at 54%. That would be #2 as far as all-time second weekends (vaulting over Black Panther), but not as high as the $149 million achieved by Force Awakens (which had the benefit of its follow-up frame falling over the Christmas holiday).

**If you’d like to read my review of Infinity War (spoiler free), it can be found here:

Avengers: Infinity War Movie Review

And with that, here’s my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $118.1 million

2. Overboard

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

3. A Quiet Place

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million

4. I Feel Pretty

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

5. Tully

Predicted Gross: $5 million

Box Office Results (April 27-29)

Avengers: Infinity War made history at the box office this weekend. Not only did the Marvel gathering of its heroes have the biggest domestic debut of all time – it did so rather easily. War amassed $257.6 million, besting the previous high mark set by 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens at $247.9 million. It blasted past my projection of $240.2 million. Will the fourth Avengers title coming in one year top this one? Time shall tell. One thing is for sure – Marvel/Disney is having an unbelievable year with this and Black Panther. 

A Quiet Place took the runner-up spot with $11 million, in line with my $11.8 million prediction for $148 million overall.

I Feel Pretty stayed in third place in weekend #2 with $8.1 million (I was close with $7.6 million) for a $29 million tally.

Rampage placed fourth with $7.2 million, below my $9.1 million forecast for a total of $78 million.

I gave Super Troopers 2 too much credit and had it in the top 5 at $5.6 million. It came in lower with $3.7 million for sixth place and has made $22 million thus far.

The aforementioned Black Panther ended up rounding out the top five with $4.7 million to bring its gross to $688 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 27-29

We are in the midst of the spring season currently, but in Hollywood it becomes summer this weekend as Avengers: Infinity War blasts into theaters. The Disney/Marvel property brings together the MCU superheroes of the past decade and looks to break numerous records. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/17/avengers-infinity-war-box-office-prediction/

As my estimate outlines, I anticipate Infinity falling just short (about $7 million) of the all-time opening record achieved by Star Wars: The Force Awakens in December of 2015. That easily gives it the #2 premiere (well above the $220 million that Star Wars: The Last Jedi made this past December).

All of the oxygen in this late April frame should be sucked up by Iron Man, Captain America, Black Panther, the Guardians of the Galaxy, Thor, and more. This means holdovers may experience some rather rough declines, including Rampage. I also have a feeling Super Troopers 2 (after an opening that exceeded all expectations) is an example of a front-loaded gross and its sophomore fall could be significant. A Quiet Place should drop to second while Amy Schumer’s I Feel Pretty may lose around half of its middling debut audience.

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. Avengers: Infinity War

Predicted Gross: $240.2 million

2. A Quiet Place

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

3. Rampage

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

4. I Feel Pretty

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

5. Super Troopers 2

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

Box Office Results (April 20-22)

A Quiet Place crept back up into the top spot as the acclaimed horror pic took in $20.9 million, on pace with my $21.6 million projection. Its three-week total stands at a terrific $131 million.

Rampage dropped to second and held up better than I figured in weekend #2 with $20 million compared to my $17 million forecast. The Dwayne Johnson adventure has made $65 million thus far. As mentioned, it could be in for a healthier drop this weekend considering the competition.

Amy Schumer’s I Feel Pretty debuted in third with a just OK $16 million, in line with my $16.2 million prediction. This is lower than the comedian’s previous outings, Trainwreck and Snatched.

While Pretty was a comedy that opened on the lower end of estimates, Super Troopers 2 was fourth and blew away most prognostications. The sequel to the 2002 cult hit made a strong $15.1 million, nearly tripling my $5.2 million estimate.

Truth or Dare rounded out the top five in its sophomore frame with $7.7 million. I was close at $7.9 million. The low-budget Blumhouse horror offering sits at $30 million in its first two weekends.

Due to my low ball take on Troopers, I incorrectly had Blockers fifth. It came in seventh with $6.8 million (I said $5.9 million) for $48 million overall. Ready Player One was sixth with $7.4 million and it’s up to $126 million.

Finally, the Paula Patton thriller Traffik opened in ninth with $3.9 million – a bit above my $3 million take.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 20-22

It’s the calm before the Marvel storm at the box office this weekend as three new titles debut: Amy Schumer’s I Feel Pretty, comedy sequel Super Troopers 2, and Paula Patton/Omar Epps thriller Traffik. You can peruse my detailed predictions on that trio here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/10/i-feel-pretty-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/13/super-troopers-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/14/traffik-box-office-prediction/

As we await the potentially record-breaking premiere of Avengers: Infinity War next weekend (my estimate for it will be on the blog tomorrow), there is some excitement to ponder with this frame. There could be a three-way battle for first place as current #1 Rampage is likely to suffer a heftier drop than A Quiet Place. If Pretty beats my forecast, it could vie for the top slot as well.

My $5.2 million Super Troopers 2 prediction and $3 million projection for Traffik leave them both outside my top 5.

Truth or Dare should drop to fourth with Ready Player One and Blockers battling for fifth position. I’ll note I have Player right behind Blockers in sixth with $5.8 million.

So while Captain America, Iron Man, Black Panther, the Guardians of the Galaxy and more superheroes await, here’s my take on this weekend’s high five:

1. A Quiet Place

Predicted Gross: $21.6 million

2. Rampage

Predicted Gross: $17 million

3. I Feel Pretty

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million

4. Truth or Dare

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

5. Blockers

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

Box Office Results (April 13–15)

Rampage took first as Dwayne Johnson’s adventure with a slew of CG creatures met expectations with $35.7 million, in line with my $36.6 million estimate. As you can see above, I expect it to lose more than half its opening audience and cede the pole position to the third frame of horror smash A Quiet Place.

Speaking of, A Quiet Place held strongly in second with $32.9 million. I was close on that projection too with $31.8 million. The acclaimed pic has amassed $100 million in just ten days.

Blumhouse continued its trend of turning low-budget fright fests into hits as Truth or Dare was third with $18.6 million, just topping my $16.7 million forecast. While I look for it to drop fast, it’s already a big success considering its budget is reportedly under $5 million.

Other holdovers experienced larger declines that my projections. Ready Player One was fourth with $11.5 million compared to my $13.9 million estimate for $114 million total. Blockers was fifth with $10.7 million (I said $13.3 million) for $37 million overall.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Box Office Predictions: April 13-15

Dwayne Johnson and Blumhouse Productions are hoping that Friday the 13th is a lucky opening day for them as Rampage and Truth or Dare debut this weekend. The former teams Johnson in an adventure with a host of CG animals and the latter is the latest from the studio that has seen a number of low-budget horror hits. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/03/rampage-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/04/03/truth-or-dare-box-office-prediction/

The battle for #1 got a bit more interesting this weekend due to the incredible debut of A Quiet Place. If Rampage were to not meet expectations (and I have it meeting them), it could create a close race between the two. That said, my mid 30s projection for The Rock and the giant gorillas and wolves puts it in first with Quiet not too far behind.

Underestimating Blumhouse is usually not a wise course of action and I have Truth or Dare in third (even with the considerable competition of A Quiet Place‘s sophomore frame). That means Ready Player One and Blockers (which opened very well itself over the weekend) should be awfully close in the race for fourth. I give Player the slight edge.

There’s also the nationwide expansion of Wes Anderson’s Isle of Dogs, which has been performing splendidly in limited release. I don’t have a theater count for it yet, but I don’t see it reaching the top 5. If it hits around 1500 theaters, I would probably say it gets around $7.5 million to $8 million. We also have the animated Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero and tennis drama Borg vs. McEnroe apparently both opening in wide (or wide-ish) release. Once again, I’ve yet to witness a screen count and there’s really no chance either of them sniff the top 5 anyway.

And with that, my projections for the weekend:

1. Rampage

Predicted Gross: $36.6 million

2. A Quiet Place

Predicted Gross: $31.8 million

3. Truth or Dare

Predicted Gross: $16.7 million

4. Ready Player One

Predicted Gross: $13.9 million

5. Blockers

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

Box Office Results (April 6-8)

As mentioned, it was a loud and massive opening for John Krasinski’s A Quiet Place as the critically acclaimed horror pic took in $50.2 million (way beyond my $31.2 million estimate). That’s the second largest opening of 2018 behind Black Panther as it nearly tripled its meager $17 million budget in just three days. With great word-of-mouth, expect it to play well over the coming weekends.

Pretty much everything made more than my predictions in this first full April weekend. Ready Player One held solidly in weekend #2 with $24.6 million (ahead of my $21.8 million prediction) for $96 million overall.

Well reviewed comedy Blockers had a sturdy debut in third with $20.5 million, besting my $15.2 million projection. Look for the John Cena/Leslie Mann laugh fest to experience minimal declines in coming weekends, similar to what Game Night recently accomplished.

Black Panther took in $8.7 million for fourth (topping my take of $7.2 million) and it once again made some box office history. The Marvel behemoth became the third largest domestic grosser of all time (surpassing Titanic). It will likely stay at that spot behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avatar. The current gross is $665 million.

Acrimony was fifth with $8.3 million (I said $6.5 million). Its two-week tally is $31 million.

Chappaquiddick didn’t make the top 5, but it did considerably better than what I figured. The Kennedy drama was 7th with $5.7 million. I was much lower at $2.3 million.

The inspirational sports drama The Miracle Season was 11th with $3.9 million, serving up close to my $3.8 million prediction.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…