Tag: Box Office Results

December 20-22 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (12/19): Just hours before its premiere, I am revising my Skywalker estimate from $206.4M to $191.4M.

Hollywood looks for the force to be strong at the box office this weekend as Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker rolls into the galaxy. We also have the cinematic version of the famed Broadway musical Cats and the nationwide expansion of the Fox News harassment story Bombshell. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/12/10/star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalker-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/12/11/cats-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/12/11/bombshell-box-office-prediction/

The big question with Skywalker is whether it can match the $220 million earned out of the gate by predecessor The Last Jedi in 2017. Most signs are pointing to no and some prognosticators have it earning under $200 million. I’m giving this franchise the benefit of the doubt and putting it just over that.

Cats is a question mark. Much of the buzz about the Tom Hooper adaptation has been negative. That said, there’s high familiarity with the source material and having Taylor Swift in the cast can’t hurt, right? I’m projecting a low teens beginning and we shall see where the buzz takes it from there over the holidays.

Bombshell is coming off a better than expected performance with SAG Award nominations and an impressive limited release rollout. Yet it’s not uncommon for these Oscar bait titles to start slowly and perform well over subsequent weekends. I expect that should be the case here.

As for holdovers, Jumanji: The Next Level exceeded guesstimates (including my own) and proved that this franchise is still vibrant. With the Star Wars competition, a drop of 50% is likely. Look for a sturdy rebound over Christmas. Frozen II should fall in the mid 40s and stay in double digits.

And with that, my take on the top five:

1. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Predicted Gross: $191.4 million

2. Jumanji: The Next Level

Predicted Gross: $26.8 million

3. Cats

Predicted Gross: $14.5 million

4. Frozen II

Predicted Gross $11 million

5. Bombshell

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million

Box Office Results (December 13-15)

It was a lucky weekend for Jumanji: The Next Level as the video game centric family adventure made $59.2 million, easily exceeding my $48.7 million prediction. As mentioned, that puts the Sony series on the absolute highest end of estimates and we can certainly expect a third pairing of Dwayne Johnson, Kevin Hart, Jack Black, and company.

Frozen II dropped to second after three weeks on top with $19 million, right in line with my $18.9 million forecast. The Disney sequel is up to $366 million.

Knives Out was third with $9.1 million, on target with my $8.8 million projection. Total is $78 million after three weeks.

The weekend’s other newbies had very unlucky frames. Clint Eastwood’s Richard Jewell was a massive flop. Earning just $4.6 million (way under my $11 million take), it marks a troubling low for director Clint Eastwood. The “A” Cinemascore grade could cushion drops in coming weekends, but with a $45 million budget, there’s no way to salvage this.

Black Christmas was a giant lump of coal with just $4.2 million. I was considerably higher at $12.1 million. Horror fans simply didn’t turn out. The saving grace is a reported $5 million budget. The small number of moviegoers who did see it gave it a dismal D+ Cinemascore.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

December 13-15 Box Office Predictions

The holiday titles begin to roll in this weekend as family adventure sequel Jumanji: The Next Level, horror remake Black Christmas, and Clint Eastwood’s true life drama Richard Jewell debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio here:

Jumanji: The Next Level Box Office Prediction

Black Christmas Box Office Prediction

Richard Jewell Box Office Prediction

There’s no doubt that Jumanji will end the three-week reign of Frozen II atop the charts. The 2017 predecessor became a phenomenon for Sony and eventually legged out to become the studio’s highest domestic earner of all time. Estimates have the inevitable sequel making between $40-$50 million out of the gate and I have it on the higher end of that range. Level hopes to earn a nice chunk of cash right away with Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker on deck next weekend.

As for the other newbies, Christmas and Jewell could be in a close race for #3. Horror titles always have the opportunity to exceed expectations, but I’ll give Christmas low teens and Eastwood’s latest just under that.

With a mid 40s dip, Frozen II should fall to second with Knives Out rounding out the top five.

And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Jumanji: The Next Level

Predicted Gross: $48.7 million

2. Frozen II

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million

3. Black Christmas

Predicted Gross: $12.1 million

4. Richard Jewell

Predicted Gross: $11 million

5. Knives Out

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

Box Office Results (December 6-8)

Per usual, it was a rather quiet post Thanksgiving frame as Frozen II easily held the top spot for the third time. The Disney sequel took in $35.1 million, falling a bit more than my $41.3 million projection. Its tally is up to $338 million.

Knives Out stayed put in second with $14.2 million, not matching my $16.4 million estimate for a two-week take of $63 million.

Ford v Ferrari was third with $6.6 million (I said $7.5 million) as it nears the century mark with $91 million.

Queen & Slim also made $6.6 million (I said $6.7 million) in its sophomore frame for a $27 million total.

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood was fifth and it’s not experiencing the minor declines that many (myself included) anticipated. It made $5.2 million compared to my $7.2 million forecast for an unimpressive $43 million.

The Mark Ruffalo drama Dark Waters expanded wide and was sixth with $3.9 million, on pace with my $3.7 million prediction. Total is $5 million.

Last and most certainly least, critically drubbed animated effort Playmobil: The Movie was an absolute disaster. Opening in 14th place, it made $656,000. I was far more generous at $2.8 million. For those keeping score, that’s a $281 per theater average.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

December 6-8 Box Office Predictions

Hollywood had reason to be thankful over the holiday weekend as the box office saw a much needed rebound. More importantly, two original films (that’s right – not based on comics or bestsellers) aimed at adults exceeded expectations.

For this first full weekend of December, the studios are holding back as they wait closer to Christmas to unleash their blockbusters like Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and Jumanji: The Next Level. The only new wide release is the animated Playmobil: The Movie and you can peruse my prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/11/27/playmobil-the-movie-box-office-prediction/

I don’t expect much from Playmobil, which has generated scant buzz and has Frozen II in its third frame as direct competition. My $2.8 million estimate leaves it outside of the top five.

There is also the expansion of the Mark Ruffalo drama Dark Waters, which had a so-so limited release this past weekend. My $3.7 million projection also leaves it beyond the high five.

That top five should remain the same pictures with perhaps some movement in the numbers placement. Frozen II may lose a bit more than half its Thanksgiving audience and it should have zero trouble getting a three-peat.

I expect all other titles to drop in the high 30s to mid 40s with the smallest drops going to Knives Out after its terrific debut and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Here’s how I have it all playing out:

1. Frozen II

Predicted Gross: $41.3 million

2. Knives Out

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

3. Ford v Ferrari

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

5. Queen & Slim

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

Box Office Results (November 29-December 1)

As mentioned, it was a bountiful Turkey Day weekend for Tinsel Town as Frozen II dominated the charts in its sophomore frame with $85.9 million, just over my $84.4 million take. The Disney sequel has amassed a cool $288 million thus far.

Rian Johnson’s acclaimed murder mystery Knives Out got off to a sharp start with $26.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $41.4 million since its Wednesday beginning. Those figures easily eclipse my respective predictions of $18.5 million and $27.7 million.

Ford v Ferrari was third with $13.1 million, in line with my $12.8 million estimate for $81 million total.

Queen & Slim was the other impressive debut as the romantic crime drama grossed $11.8 million for the traditional weekend and $16 million since Wednesday. That’s well over my projections of $6.9 million and $10.1 million.

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood rounded out the top five with $11.7 million (I said $11 million) for a two-week tally of $34 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 29-December 1 Box Office Predictions

Turkey Day weekend is upon us at the box office with two new pictures attempting to harvest some cash while Frozen II should gobble up the bulk of the bucks. We have Rian Johnson’s comedic murder mystery Knives Out and the romantic crime thriller Queen & Slim both rolling out on Wednesday. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/11/20/knives-out-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/11/21/queen-slim-box-office-prediction/

Knives is aiming for a second place showing behind the Disney juggernaut and it should get there. With solid reviews in its corner, I could foresee this topping my high teens Friday to Sunday and mid to high 20s five-day estimate. However, I believe it’s just as likely that this legs out well in subsequent weekends.

As for Queen, it too has critics in its corner. However, a lack of awards chatter and a smallish theater count of around 1500 could mean low double digits for its Wednesday through Sunday tally. That should mean a #5 premiere.

Holdovers Ford v Ferrari and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood appear poised for the kind of minor declines we often find over this holiday frame. That is especially welcome news for Neighborhood, which came in at the low end of its anticipated range this past weekend. I’m calling for mid teens drops for each.

Frozen II is a toughie. There simply aren’t many comps for how this should perform in its sophomore weekend. Most November blockbusters from the Mouse Factory open over Thanksgiving and not the weekend before. I’ll project a mid 30s dip for the Friday to Sunday portion. In all honesty, this is a bit of guesswork.

Here’s how I foresee the weekend playing out:

1. Frozen II

Predicted Gross: $84.4 million

2. Knives Out

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million (Friday to Sunday); $27.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Ford v Ferrari

Predicted Gross: $12.8 million

4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Predicted Gross: $11 million

5. Queen & Slim

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $10.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (November 22-24)

Frozen II provided the scorching earnings that the month of November desperately needed. In doing so, it achieved the best traditionally animated (read: not Pixar) Disney start ever and highest ever November animated haul. The sequel took in $130.2 million, just over my $126.7 million projection.

Ford v Ferrari slid to second with $15.7 million with a larger than expected 50% drop. I predicted $18.2 million. It’s at $57 million through 10 days.

As mentioned, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood was third with a so-so beginning at $13.2 million, well under my $18.6 million forecast. Its A Cinemscore rating should keep it humming for the next few weeks, however.

The Chadwick Boseman action thriller 21 Bridges underwhelmed with $9.2 million in fourth, on pace with my take of $9.8 million. It could hold decently over the holiday, but it should fade quickly after that.

Midway rounded out the top five and I incorrectly had it on the outside. The World War II pic made $4.6 million for $43 million overall.

Playing with Fire was sixth with $4.5 million (I said $4.9 million) for $31 million at press time.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 22-24 Box Office Predictions

There’s no doubt that Disney will rule the box office in this pre Thanksgiving frame as Frozen II blasts into theaters along with Tom Hanks as Mister Rogers in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Chadwick Boseman in the action thriller 21 Bridges. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/11/12/frozen-ii-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/11/13/a-beautiful-day-in-the-neighborhood-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/11/15/21-bridges-box-office-prediction/

For the sequel to the 2013 billion dollar plus phenomenon, it’s all about the number and how high I’m willing to let it go (my apologies). Estimates are all over the map with some in the $150 million plus range. That wouldn’t exactly be a shock, but I’m a bit skeptical it reaches that vicinity. Some families may wait until the long holiday weekend. My forecast puts it about $6 million ahead of what Toy Story 4 accomplished over the summer.

The real battle could be for #2 between Neighborhood and the second frame of Ford v Ferrari. The latter debuted at the top of its anticipated range and scored a scorching A+ Cinemascore grade. The second weekend drop could be minimal and put it in the high teens range. That’s just where I expect the neighborhood for Beautiful to be and I’ll give it the slight edge.

Bridges is lacking buzz despite the presence of Black Panther and my high single digits projection puts it in fourth with Playing with Fire rounding out the top five in its third weekend.

Here’s my take on how I see it playing out:

1. Frozen II

Predicted Gross: $126.7 million

2. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 

Predicted Gross: $18.6 million

3. Ford v Ferrari 

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

4. 21 Bridges 

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

5. Playing with Fire 

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (November 15-17)

As mentioned, Ford v Ferrari had a rock solid showing and gave Disney its first #1 opening for a Fox owned property. The Oscar hopeful zoomed off with $31.4 million, ahead of my $24.4 million prediction. Expect sturdy holds in the weeks ahead.

An unexpected pileup happened for second place as Midway edged competitors out with $8.5 million. It didn’t reach my $10.2 million forecast and has taken in $34 million in two weeks.

Third place went to perhaps the story of the weekend as Charlie’s Angels absolutely tanked with a paltry $8.3 million, well under my projection of $14.2 million. It’s yet another example of serious 2019 franchise fatigue.

Playing with Fire was fourth and it also made $8.3 million. My guess? $8.3 million! Hey, I got something right! It’s at $25 million after ten days.

Last Christmas was fifth with $6.4 million (I said $7 million) for $22 million overall.

Finally, newcomer The Good Liar was seventh with just $5.6 million, in range with my take of $6 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 15-17 Box Office Predictions

It’s been a distressingly sluggish November at the box office thus far and it might take Frozen II to heat it back up. That doesn’t come out until weekend. For this frame, we have the racing pic and Oscar hopeful Ford v Ferrari with Matt Damon and Christian Bale, the reboot of the Charlie’s Angels franchise with Kristen Stewart, and the Ian McKellen/Helen Mirren thriller The Good Liar. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/11/05/ford-v-ferrari-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/11/06/charlies-angels-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/11/07/the-good-liar-box-office-prediction/

Some estimates have Ford zooming to the top spot with $30 million plus. I’m skeptical. While it should have no trouble hitting #1, I believe mid 20s is the more likely scenario as it hopes to flex strong leg muscle over the holiday season.

Audiences have shown a distaste with unasked for reboots all year and I expect that to continue with Angels, which has failed to generate significant buzz. My low teens projection would guarantee no more editions of this series into the future.

As for Liar, solid reviews and Oscar chatter would’ve helped and it hasn’t achieved either. My $6 million take leaves it outside of the top five.

When it comes to holdovers, Midway was a surprise #1 due to the massive underperforming of Doctor Sleep (more on that below). A dip in the early to mid 40s should put it in fifth.

I expect Playing with Fire and Last Christmas to have the best holds in their sophomore weekends in the 30s region, while Sleep should plummet in the mid 50s or more. This means Sleep may find its way below the high five. I anticipate that being the case and here’s how I envision the weekend:

1. Ford v Ferrari 

Predicted Gross: $24.4 million

2. Charlie’s Angels 

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

3. Midway

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

4. Playing with Fire 

Predicted Gross: $8.3 million

5. Last Christmas 

Predicted Gross: $7 million

Box Office Results (November 8-10)

It isn’t often that the film you pick to be at #4 tops the charts, but it happened this weekend as Midway led a sleepy frame with $17.8 million. That’s above my $13 million prediction. With a reported budget of $100 million, Lionsgate might not be popping champagne corks. Yet they do have bragging rights.

That World War II pic has Doctor Sleep to thank for its relative success. The Shining sequel was a massive failure with just $14.1 million for second place. That’s considerably under my $24.8 million projection. Warner Bros is fortunate to still be counting that Joker cash because there’s absolutely zero positive way to spin this.

John Cena’s family comedy Playing with Fire surpassed expectations in third with $12.7 million, well above my $7.9 million take. It looks poised for a healthy holiday run.

Speaking of the Yuletide season, rom com Last Christmas opened fourth with $11.4 million. That’s under its anticipated numbers and I had it at $16.9 million. However, with a smallish price tag of $30 million, it too looks for meager declines ahead.

Terminator: Dark Fate plummeted to fifth with $10.8 million compared to my guesstimate of $13.2 million. The highly disappointing two-week tally is $48 million and the $100 million mark domestically appears out of reach.

Joker was sixth with $9.2 million, on pace with my $9.1 million prediction for $313 million overall.

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil was seventh at $8.4 million (I said $7.2 million) as it nears the century figure at $97 million.

Harriet was eighth in its sophomore outing with $7.4 million (I went with $7.7 million) for $23 million total.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 8-10 Box Office Predictions

It’s a busy weekend at the box office as four new titles enter the marketplace: Shining sequel Doctor Sleep, Paul Feig directed rom com Last Christmas, Roland Emmerich made WWII action pic Midway, and John Cena led family comedy Playing with Fire. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them all here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/29/doctor-sleep-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/30/last-christmas-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/31/midway-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/31/playing-with-fire-box-office-prediction/

Barring a rather major over performance from Christmas, the #1 spot this weekend should go to Doctor Sleep. I’m putting right in its expected range of mid 20s. Reviews are solid though not spectacular and the horror pic may have trouble finding the youth audience that the genre typically depends on. The crowd is likely to skew a bit older due to the classic 1980 Kubrick film it’s following.

There is certainly a shot that Christmas celebrates a higher start than my mid teens projection, but the best hope could be for small drops in the weekends ahead.

Those two newbies seemed destined to hold the 1-2 positions as Terminator: Dark Fate had a dim start last weekend. While I don’t see it dropping in the plus 60s range like Godzilla: King of the Monsters and Men in Black International did over the summer, a mid 50s fall is feasible. That could put it in a close race for third with Midway in the low teens.

Harriet came in on the plus side of its expectations and I foresee a dip in the low to mid 30s. That could put it close to where I expect final newcomer Fire to hit and where the Maleficent: Mistress of Evil earnings are.

With all this activity, let’s expand that top five to eight, shall we?

1. Doctor Sleep 

Predicted Gross: $24.8 million

2. Last Christmas 

Predicted Gross: $16.9 million

3. Terminator: Dark Fate 

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Midway 

Predicted Gross: $13 million

5. Joker

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million

6. Playing with Fire 

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million

7. Harriet 

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

8. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

Box Office Results (November 1-3)

The reunification of Arnold Schwarzenegger and Linda Hamilton hit #1 as expected, but its premiere was a major disappointment. Dark Fate took in $29 million, well below forecasts (including my $38.1 million take). While that doesn’t quite mark the previous franchise low of 2015’s Genisys at $27 million (which actually hit low 40s in a five-day holiday rollout), it’s clear that the fate of this will be as a big financial loser domestically.

Joker was second with $13.5 million, a touch more than my $12.2 million prediction. Its total is an incredible $299 million.

Maleficent: Mistress of Evil was close behind in third with $13 million, reaching beyond my $10.2 million projection for an $85 million tally.

As mentioned, Harriet hit its mark (and might have saved Cynthia Erivo’s Oscar chances) with $11.6 million. I was lower at $8.2 million. Look for this to have smallish declines as it achieved an A+ Cinemascore grade.

The Addams Family rounded out the top five at $8.2 million (I said $7 million) for a snappy haul of $85 million.

The weekend’s other newbies both struggled at the bottom of the top ten. Motherless Brooklyn was ninth at just $3.5 million, in line with my $3.2 million prediction. The animated Arctic Dogs was a bad, bad performer in tenth with $2.9 million (less than my $4.5 million projection).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

November 1-3 Box Office Predictions

The November box office kicks off with Arnold Schwarzenegger’s signature character back in theaters and three other newcomers vying for attention. In addition to Terminator: Dark Fate, we have the historical biopic Harriet, animated comedy Arctic Dogs, and Edward Norton’s period piece crime drama Motherless Brooklyn. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/22/terminator-dark-fate-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/26/harriet-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/23/arctic-dogs-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/23/motherless-brooklyn-box-office-prediction/

I’ll begin with the low hanging fruit that I don’t expect to place in the top five. Dogs comes from the upstart Entertainment Studios, which has no track record with family fare. My $4.5 million forecast reflects its lack of visibility among kiddos and their parents. Brooklyn was looked at as a potential awards contender before festival screenings and its mixed reaction killed that notion. Premiering in a smallish 1250 theaters, I’m projecting a meager $3.2 million.

There is little doubt that Dark Fate (reuniting the former California Governor with his Terminator 2: Judgment Day costars Linda Hamilton and Edward Furlong) will top the charts, but its range of possibility is the real question mark. My high 30s estimate gives it a so-so start that outdoes 2015 predecessor Genisys.

It was a photo finish last weekend between Maleficent: Mistress of Evil and Joker. However, even though Arnold serves as more direct competition for the latter, I expect Joker will experience a lower decline than Evil and maintain its #2 standing for the third frame in a row.

Like Brooklyn, Harriet also lost its hoped for Oscar luster once reviews came out. My mid single digits projection gives it a slight edge in fourth over The Addams Family.

And with that, my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Terminator: Dark Fate 

Predicted Gross: $38.1 million

2. Joker

Predicted Gross: $12.2 million

3. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million

4. Harriet 

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million

5. The Addams Family 

Predicted Gross: $7 million

Box Office Results (October 25-27)

It doesn’t get much closer than this as Disney edged out Warner Bros for supremacy with Maleficent: Mistress of Evil clinging to #1 at $19.3 million, just under my $20.4 million prediction. The underperforming sequel stands at $66 million.

The supremely over performing Joker was second with $19.2 million, just over my $18.6 million projection for a tally of $277 million.

The Addams Family held up well and placed third with $12 million (I said $11.2 million). Total is $73 million.

Just behind in fourth and dropping hard in weekend #2 was Zombieland: Double Tap with $11.8 million. I went higher at $13.8 million. The two week earnings are $47 million.

The weekend’s highest newcomer was horror pic Countdown, rounding out the top five with $8.8 million (not hitting my $10.3 million take).

Black and Blue was sixth, premiering with $8.3 million. I didn’t give it enough credit with my $4.8 million estimate.

Finally, the long delayed The Current War was ninth with a dim $2.6 million. It did manage to build upon my $1.7 million projection.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time… I’ll be back!

October 25-27 Box Office Predictions

The end of October at the box office looks to be a rather quiet one as holdovers should dominate. There are three newcomers to consider: techie horror pic Countdown, action thriller Black and Blue, and long delayed historical drama The Current War. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/16/countdown-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/17/black-and-blue-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/20/the-current-war-box-office-prediction/

Let’s get Current out of the way first, shall we? Theater count is still uncertain and that might change my estimate, but my measly $1.7 million prediction leaves the former Weinstein Company property well outside of the top five.

Same goes for Blue with my $4.8 million projection as I don’t see much buzz for it either. Countdown should have no trouble being the largest grossing newcomer, but my barely double digits forecast has it rounding out the top five.

I whiffed on predicting that Joker would hold onto the top position for the third frame in a row over Maleficent: Mistress of Evil. While Disney claimed the #1 spot, it did so in an unimpressive fashion (more on that below). I do think Evil and Joker will be closer this weekend, but I’ll give Angelina a slight edge over Joaquin this time around.

Zombieland should stay third with The Addams Family in fourth. Due to the upcoming Halloween frame, the latter may experience the smallest decline of the bunch.

And with that, my vision of the weekend ahead:

1. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 

Predicted Gross: $20.4 million

2. Joker

Predicted Gross: $18.6 million

3. Zombieland: Double Tap 

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

4. The Addams Family

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

5. Countdown 

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

Box Office Results (October 18-20)

Disney’s streak of live action renderings of their animated catalog topping the charts didn’t end this weekend as Maleficent: Mistress of Evil was first with results that weren’t magical. It grossed $36.9 million and while that did exceed my $32.3 million prediction, that’s way under the $69 million achieved by its 2014 predecessor.

Joker slipped to second and lost more volume than I anticipated with $29.2 million compared to my $34.2 million forecast. It’s up to an astonishing $247 million and is already #9 on the list of biggest R rated earners.

Zombieland: Double Tap matched most expectations in third with $26.8 million, shooting past my $23.7 million projection. That’s a slight improvement over the near $25 million that its 2009 predecessor made, but not really when accounting for inflation.

The Addams Family was fourth with $16.3 million (I said $18.4 million) for a two-week tally of $57 million.

Will Smith’s flop Gemini Man was fifth and tumbled nearly 60% in its sophomore frame to $8.3 million, just below my $9.4 million take. Total is $36 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

October 18-20 Box Office Predictions

Two high profile sequels look to displace Joker from its two-week perch atop the charts. Disney’s Maleficent: Mistress of Evil with Angelina Jolie and Zombieland: Double Tap, reuniting Woody Harrelson, Emma Stone, Bill Murray, and others after a decade are the contenders. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/08/maleficent-mistress-of-evil-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/10/09/zombieland-double-tap-box-office-prediction/

My estimate for Maleficent puts it considerably behind the $69 million earned by its 2014 predecessor. It can be dubious to bet against Disney, but I just don’t see the excitement for this particular follow-up. There’s also family competition from the second weekend of The Addams Family, which performed well out of the gate.

I have Double Tap coming in a million dollars behind 2009’s part one. This sequel does stand a shot at rising above my projection, but a solid third frame for Joker could eat into its potential.

Speaking of, Joker continued its record setting October pace with easily the largest sophomore haul of the month in history. If it drops in the mid to high 30s, I believe it edges Mistress for top billing.

Will Smith’s Gemini Man flopped and a drop of over 50% appears likely. That would place it in high single digits for fifth place.

Here’s my take on the weekend ahead:

1. Joker

Predicted Gross: $34.2 million

2. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 

Predicted Gross: $32.3 million

3. Zombieland: Double Tap 

Predicted Gross: $23.7 million

4. The Addams Family 

Predicted Gross: $18.4 million

5. Gemini Man 

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million

Box Office Results (October 11-13)

As mentioned, Joker dominated the weekend, dipping a meager 41% for $55.8 million (towering over my $44.8 million forecast). That brings its tally to $193 million with over $300 million in its sights.

The animated version of The Addams Family was strong in second with $30.3 million, ahead of my $27 million take. With Halloween around the corner, expect sturdy holds throughout the month.

Gemini Man fell victim to mostly poor reviews in third with $20.5 million, a bit under my $22.8 million prediction. I expect both versions of Will Smith to fade quickly from theaters.

Abominable was fourth with $6 million (I said $7 million). It’s earned a so-so $47 million.

Downton Abbey rounded out the top five at $4.8 million compared to my $4.4 million projection for $82 million total.

Lastly, the panned Adam DeVine comedy Jexi languished in ninth with only $3.1 million (I went with $3.5 million).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…