January 24-26 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (01/22): Revising my The Turning estimate down from to $12.2 million to $9 million

Two new titles open wide this weekend, but the Bad Boys ain’t going nowhere from the #1 spot after a scorching debut. We have the supernatural horror pic The Turning and Guy Ritchie comedic crime caper The Gentlemen with Matthew McConaughey premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/16/the-turning-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2020/01/16/the-gentlemen-box-office-prediction/

I question whether either newcomer can hit the teens. I have The Turning almost getting there and placing fourth just behind the second weekend of Dolittle. As for The Gentlemen, I’m forecasting that it struggles to reach double digits and that should put it in the five spot.

Bad Boys for Life should lose about half its Friday to Sunday opening weekend haul and that would put it in the low 30s and far ahead of the pack. As for potential Best Picture winner 1917, look for it to jump up a spot to second as its drop shouldn’t be as pronounced as the Dolittle one.

And with that, my top 5 take on the weekend:

1. Bad Boys for Life

Predicted Gross: $31.1 million

2. 1917

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

3. Dolittle

Predicted Gross: $12.4 million

4. The Gentlemen

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million

5. The Turning

Predicted Gross: $9 million

Box Office Results (January 17-20)

Sporting the second best MLK long weekend gross of all time, sequelitis certainly was no issue for the return of Will Smith and Martin Lawrence in Bad Boys for Life. The action comedy exploded beyond expectations (with good reviews to boot) for $73 million over the four-day frame. That dwarfs my measly $45.6 million projection. Surprise surprise! A fourth edition has already been announced.

Don’t expect to see Dolittle 2. The Robert Downey Jr. family adventure made $28.3 million and that did top my $22.3 million estimate. However, with poor critical reaction and a bloated $175 million budget, it’s still a subpar result.

1917 dropped to third with $26.9 million, under my $34.4 million forecast. The Oscar hopeful is up to $81 million and it should hit the century club by this weekend.

Jumanji: The Next Level was fourth with $12.6 million (I said $11.8 million) for $273 million overall.

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker rounded out the top five with $10.5 million compared to my $9.6 million prediction. Total is $494 million.

I incorrectly had Little Women outside of my top six projections, but it was 6th with $8.2 million. The Best Picture nominee is at $86 million.

Finally, I had Just Mercy holding better in its second weekend of wide release. It earned $7.5 million, below my $10.2 million take for a middling $21 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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