Tag: box office predictions

Box Office Predictions: July 25-27

Three new titles open Friday to challenge current two week champ Dawn of the Planet of the Apes for box office dominance. They are the Scarlett Johannson action pic Lucy, The Rock led Hercules, and the Michael Douglas/Diane Keaton rom com And So It Goes. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/lucy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/hercules-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/and-so-it-goes-box-office-prediction/

As I see it, Lucy and Hercules may fight it out for the #1 position. If both underwhelm, there is an outside chance for Dawn to three-peat. As for other holdovers, current #2 The Purge: Anarchy is likely to suffer the typically big decline that horror titles do, though I’m not predicting it’ll drop as precipitously as the original fell (75%) last summer. The animated Planes: Fire & Rescue should have the smallest decline of all titles in its sophomore weekend while And So It Goes may have to settle for a sixth place debut.

And with that – my predictions for this coming weekend’s top 6:

1. Lucy

Predicted Gross: $28.1 million

2. Hercules

Predicted Gross: $21.4 million

3. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million (representing a drop of 46%)

4. Planes: Fire & Rescue

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 36%)

5. The Purge: Anarchy

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million (representing a drop of 65%)

6. And So It Goes

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million

Box Office Results (July 18-20)

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes remained #1 for the second week in a row with $36.2 million, just above my $34.6M projection. The well-reviewed sequel has earned $139 million in ten days and a gross north of $200 million seems in the cards.

I far underestimated The Purge: Anarchy, which debuted strongly at second with $29.8 million – way beyond my $15.5M prediction. I incorrectly surmised that audience’s dislike of the original would hurt this. It didn’t. Expect a part 3 next year.

Disney’s Planes: Fire & Rescue opened third with a decent $17.5 million, under my generous $25.4M estimate. It couldn’t match the $22 million that its predecessor accomplished last summer, but it should hold well in future weekends.

The bomb of the weekend was undoubtedly the Cameron Diaz comedy Sex Tape, which stumbled out of the gate with $14.6 million – about half of my $29.1M projection. Oops. There’s no doubt that highly negative reviews hurt this and this will go down as one of the season’s biggest flops.

In fifth was holdover Transformers: Age of Extinction with $9.8 million in its fourth weekend, above my $7.7M estimate. It’s taken in $227 million so far and should get to $250 million, which will most likely allow it to be summer’s highest domestic grosser.

That’s all for now, everyone!

 

And So It Goes Box Office Prediction

Director Rob Reiner attempts a summer movie season counterprogramming move with And So It Goes, opening Friday. The romantic comedy stars Michael Douglas and Diane Keaton and the pic will try to bring in an adult audience burnt out on would-be blockbusters populating the marketplace.

I’m not so sure it’ll succeed. Early reviews have been mixed and the advertising campaign has been low-key. And So It Goes would love to bring in the numbers of Hope Springs with Meryl Streep and Tommy Lee Jones, which opened two summers ago to a $14 million opening weekend gross. I don’t believe this will reach those heights. Premiering on a relatively low 1800 screens, I’m forecasting that this won’t quite reach double digits and should be available for home viewing in the near future.

And So It Goes opening weekend prediction: $9.3 million

For my Lucy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/lucy-box-office-prediction/

For my Hercules prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/hercules-box-office-prediction/

Hercules Box Office Prediction

This Friday, audiences are treated to their second Hercules themed film of 2014. This would considered the higher profile one as The Legend of Hercules bombed in January with an abysmal $18 million domestic gross. Expectations are understandably bigger for this one – as it stars Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson and is directed by Brett Ratner. It’s likely to gross more in its first weekend than Legend did in its whole domestic run.

Having said that, I’m anticipating a fairly muted opening for Hercules. The trailers and TV sports aren’t bad, but they’re rather unimpressive. There’s also Lucy, the Scarlett Johannson action thriller that seems to have more buzz around it and could be more successful in attracting a female audience. As I see it, Hercules will need to do solid business internationally to justify its reported $110 million budget because I don’t see it reaching very close to that stateside.

Hercules opening weekend prediction: $21.4 million

For my Lucy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/lucy-box-office-prediction/

For my And So It Goes prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/and-so-it-goes-box-office-prediction/

Lucy Box Office Prediction

This Friday, Scarlett Johannson enters Angelina Jolie territory as she headlines the action thriller Lucy, from director Luc Besson. Costarring the Narrator in Chief Morgan Freeman, Universal Studios has shown confidence in the project by moving it from its original August time slot to late July. The marketing campaign has been strong and the trailers and TV spots are effective.

The big question is whether Lucy will be negatively affected by its competition, Hercules featuring The Rock. Both pictures could cause the other to lose out on their full box office potential. What Lucy has that Hercules may not is the chance to bring more females into the fold. Audiences are used to seeing Johannson in action mode following her appearances in Iron Man 2, The Avengers, and Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which is still 2014’s highest grosser.

Add that up and Lucy has a real chance to be a sleeper summer hit and nab the #1 spot over its competitors.

Lucy opening weekend prediction: $28.1 million

For my Hercules prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/hercules-box-office-prediction/

For my And So It Goes prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/20/and-so-it-goes-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: July 18-20

We’ve got three new titles populating theaters this coming Friday: the Cameron Diaz/Jason Segel comedy Sex Tape, the horror sequel The Purge: Anarchy and Disney’s animated sequel Planes: Fire & Rescue. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/13/sex-tape-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/13/planes-fire-rescue-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/13/the-purge-anarchy-box-office-prediction/

These newbies could create a legitimate three-way race for the #1 spot. The main question is whether Sex Tape or Planes could exceed my expectations and knock current champ Dawn of the Planet of the Apes from its perch? It’s certainly possible. Some could make the argument that the Purge sequel could over perform and compete, but I just don’t see that happening.

Ultimately I’m predicting the Apes will keep their considerable monkey business at #1 with the new entries coming in second through fourth. The well-reviewed Apes flick is likely to lose 45-55% of its audience in its sophomore frame. Transformers: Age of Extinction should fall to fifth.

And with that, my top five predictions for the upcoming weekend:

1. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $34.6 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. Sex Tape

Predicted Gross: $29.1 million

3. Planes: Fire & Rescue

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

4. The Purge: Anarchy

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million

5. Transformers: Age of Extinction

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 53%)

Box Office Results (July 11-13)

As expected, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes dominated the weekend with a very solid $72.6 million haul – though it did fall a little short of my $77.2M projection. This is a great start for it and pretty much guarantees more franchise entrees in the near future.

Falling to second in weekend #3 was Transformers: Age of Extinction with $16.3 million, right in range with my $16.8M prediction. The fourth film in the Michael Bay series has earned $208 million so far. It will likely top out around $250 million and will easily be the lowest domestic grosser of the franchise.

Melissa McCarthy’s critically panned Tammy held up a bit better than I figured, placing third with $12.5 million – above my $10.7M estimate. The comedy has earned $56 million in two weeks.

In fourth was 22 Jump Street with $6.5 million, just outshining my $5.6M prediction. The sequel has earned $171 million. In fifth was How to Train Your Dragon 2 with $6 million. My prediction? $6 million! The animated sequel has earned a less than expected $152 million. Finally, Earth to Echo was sixth in weekend #2 with $5.4 million, in line with my $5.2M projection. Its taken in $24 million in two weeks.

And that’s all for now, friends!

 

The Purge: Anarchy Box Office Prediction

Last summer The Purge came out of nowhere and earned $64 million domestically against a tiny budget of only $3 million. Naturally, a sequel quickly got the green light from Universal Pictures and writer/director James DeMonaco is back in charge with Frank Grillo and Carmen Ejogo starring.

So it would stand to reason that the horror/thriller sequel should keep the gravy train rolling, right? Well… not so fast. When the original debuted in early June 2013, it started strongly out of the gate with a $34 million opening. That means it earned over half of its domestic gross in its first three days. What does that mean? It received a dismal “C” Cinemascore grade. So audiences didn’t like what they saw and they certainly weren’t telling their friends to check it out.

The Purge: Anarchy faces an uphill battle to come close to competing with its predecessor. The lackluster reaction to last year’s entry doesn’t bode well. If something like Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones could only manage an opening just north of $18 million in January, it’s hard to see this earning more in a much more competitive time frame.

As I see it, Anarchy is primed for a mediocre premiere and I don’t believe it’ll even start with half of what the first hauled in a year ago.

The Purge: Anarchy opening weekend prediction: $15.5 million

For my Sex Tape prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/13/sex-tape-box-office-prediction/

For my Planes: Fire & Rescue prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/13/planes-fire-rescue-box-office-prediction/

Sex Tape Box Office Prediction

Three summers ago, Bad Teacher performed well with audiences to the tune of a $100 million domestic gross. On Friday, that film’s director Jake Kasdan and its stars Cameron Diaz and Jason Segel reunite for Sex Tape. The raunchy comedy’s concept is simple: bored married couple makes sex tape to spice things up and it accidentally goes viral. Costars include Rob Corddry, Ellie Kemper, and Rob Lowe.

Diaz, especially, has proven herself to be a valuable commodity in these types of pictures. Just this spring, The Other Woman got off to a $24 million debut on its way to an $83M domestic haul. And Sex Tape could be more successful in bringing in a male audience as Woman was geared more towards… well, women. Similar types of movies such as No Strings Attached or Friends with Benefits both opened to just shy of $20 million, but this should outdo them.

The most fair comparison for how Sex Tape plays is likely Bad Teacher itself. It opened to $31 million in June 2011 and it’s certainly possible that this could open in the same range. Ultimately I’m predicting it falls just short of that for a solid opening.

Sex Tape opening weekend prediction: $29.1 million

For my The Purge: Anarchy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/13/the-purge-anarchy-box-office-prediction/

For my Planes: Fire & Rescue prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/13/planes-fire-rescue-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: July 11-13

This coming weekend, there’s bound to be lots of monkey business at the box office as Dawn of the Planet of the Apes opens. It looks on course to absolutely dominate the weekend and you can find my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/07/06/dawn-of-the-planet-of-the-apes-box-office-prediction/

As I will talk about in just a minute, the Fourth of July holiday box office was unimpressive and that’s being kind. Dawn is the only new entry coming and all the holdovers should have drops ranging from high 30s to mid 50s. Current #1 and #2 Transformers: Age of Extinction and Tammy should suffer the largest drops.

And with that, I’ll predict the top six for the weekend:

1. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Predicted Gross: $77.2 million

2. Transformers: Age of Extinction

Predicted Gross: $16.8 million (representing a drop of 54%)

3. Tammy

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million (representing a drop of 50%)

4. How to Train Your Dragon 2

Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. 22 Jump Street

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)

6. Earth to Echo

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million (representing a drop of 39%)

Box Office Results (July 4-6)

As mentioned, this was a bad Fourth of July at the movies. How bad? Adjusted for inflation, it’s the poorest performance in 27 summers. Ouch. Summer 2014 is currently running 20% behind last summer. Transformers: Age of Extinction held onto the top spot with $37 million, but it’s 63% drop is troubling and Extinction will certainly be the lowest domestic grosser of the franchise. It couldn’t match my $42.2M estimate. The robot extravaganza has earned $175 million so far.

Melissa McCarthy’s Tammy got off to a middling start with $21.5 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $33.3 million since its Wednesday debut. This is below my respective estimates of $27.3M and $42.9M. Bad reviews and negative audience reaction (a troubling C+ on CinemaScore) likely contributed to its so-so premiere and it shouldn’t have the strong legs that many summer comedies develop.

In third was 22 Jump Street in its fourth weekend with $9.8 million, just above my $8.9M prediction. The blockbuster sequel stands at $159 million.

Landing with disappointing results in fourth was the horror flick Deliver Us from Evil with just $9.7 million over the traditional weekend and $15.2 million since Wednesday. It fell short of my respective estimates of $13.1M and $20.6M. Like most titles in its genre, expect this one to fall fast next weekend.

How to Train Your Dragon 2 made $8.9 million in weekend #4 for firth place, above my $7.8M projection. The animated sequel has brought in lackluster results and stands at $140 million so far, well below expectations.

Another kiddie pic debuted in sixth as I predicted with Earth to Echo earning a muted $8.3 million over the weekend and $13.5 million since Wednesday. This is just slightly higher than my estimates of $8M and $12.3M, respectively.

That’s all for now!

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes Box Office Prediction

This Friday brings us Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, the eighth picture in a franchise over 45 years old and the direct sequel to 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes. There have been a number of changes in the past three years with Clovefield director Matt Reeves behind the camera in place of Rise‘s Rupert Wyatt. We also have a new cast of human actors that includes Gary Oldman, Jason Clarke, and Keri Russell. Andy Serkis does return with his acclaimed motion capture performance of ape leader Caesar.

Three  summers back, Rise was a pleasant surprise to both critics and audiences. It got off to a strong $54 million opening weekend in August 2011 on its way to a $176 million domestic take. This time around, expectations are even higher. And it also seems that critics are even more enthusiastic about Dawn. It currently holds a terrific 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. Nearly all tent pole summer 2014 entries from The Amazing Spider-Man 2 to Godzilla to X-Men: Days of Future Past to How to Train Your Dragon 2 to Transformers: Age of Extinction have either just met expectations or grossed under them. Dawn is in a unique position of following a well-received original franchise entry and having critics gushing about it. This could mean big things for it and I believe it has a fair chance of possibly becoming the season’s largest hit, which I wrote about last week here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/29/will-the-apes-rule-summer-2014/

As for its opening weekend gross, it should have no problem whatsoever surpassing the $54 million that its predecessor grossed out of the gate. While I don’t see it earning a low to mid 90s haul like Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, or X-Men did, it’s within the realm of possibility. I think a better bet is that it grosses in the mid to high 70s and may develop strong legs in subsequent weekends.

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes opening weekend prediction: $77.2 million

Box Office Predictions: July 4-6

Most years on the Fourth of July holiday weekend, we see a massive tent pole picture making its debut, but this year it’s different. Three new pictures – the Melissa McCarthy comedy Tammy, horror flick Deliver Us from Evil, and kiddie pic Earth to Echo all debut on Wednesday and will each attempt to compete with the sophomore weekend of Transformers: Age of Extinction. You can read my detailed predictions on the holiday newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/29/tammy-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/29/deliver-us-from-evil-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/29/earth-to-echo-box-office-prediction/

While I’m predicting solid results for Tammy, OK results for Evil, and disappointing returns for Echo, it’s highly unlikely anything will manage to dislodge Transformers from the top spot. Therefore the Michael Bay robofest should be the first summer 2014 picture to stay #1 for two weeks straight.

And with that, my estimated top six for the fireworks frame (with five-day predictions for the new entries included):

1. Transformers: Age of Extinction

Predicted Gross: $42.2 million (representing a drop of 57%)

2. Tammy

Predicted Gross: $27.3 million ($42.9 million prediction from Wednesday to Sunday)

3. Deliver Us from Evil

Predicted Gross: $13.1 million ($20.6 million prediction from Wednesday to Sunday)

4. 22 Jump Street

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 44%)

5. Earth to Echo

Predicted Gross: $8 million ($12.3 million prediction from Wednesday to Sunday)

6. How To Train Your Dragon 2

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)

Box Office Results (June 27-29)

Transformers: Age of Extinction was able to reach the biggest opening weekend so far in 2014 with exactly $100 million (leading some rival studios to question the accuracy of that number). This was right in the range of $98.6 million projection. While this is certainly a fine opening, there is a very good chance Extinction could end up being the lowest domestic grosser of the series thus far.

Staying in the #2 spot was 22 Jump Street with $15.8 million (above my $14.2M prediction) and the comedy hit’s three-week total stands at $140 million. Animated sequel How to Train Your Dragon 2 was third in its third weekend with $13.2 million, right in line with my $13M estimate. The disappointing family flick has earned nearly $122 million and will fall far short of its predecessor’s $217M haul. Keeping with the sequel frenzy, Kevin Hart’s Think Like a Man Too dropped from first to fourth with a hefty 64% plunge and a gross $10.3 million (below my $13.8M prediction). Rounding out the top six were holdovers Maleficent with $8.3 million (I said $8.2M) and Jersey Boys with $7.7 million (I said $7.8M).

Until next time, my friends!