Tag: box office predictions

Dumb and Dumber To Box Office Prediction

One of the most beloved comedic duos returns as Harry (Jeff Daniels) and Lloyd (Jim Carrey) blast back in theaters in Dumb and Dumber To, out Friday. The Farrelly Brothers are back in the director chairs as this sequel is released nearly 20 years after the original earned $127 million domestically. Kathleen Turner, Laurie Holden, and Rob Riggle are in the supporting cast.

A lot has changed in those two decades. At the time, Carrey was a box office force as Ace Ventura: Pet Detective, The Mask, and the first Dumber all were huge hits in 1994. In the last decade or so, Carrey’s power has waned. His last traditional comedic release, 2008’s Yes Man, couldn’t break the $100M dollar mark. We’re a long ways away from even 2003 when his Bruce Almighty could debut to $67 million. And it’s important to remember that to a young generation of moviegoers, a high-profile Carrey release is something they’re not accustomed to rushing out to the multiplex to see.

Having said that, 1994’s Dumb and Dumber is arguably the actor’s most fondly remembered release with its constant rotation on cable TV and the great work of Jeff Daniels is part of the reason as well. The most fair comparison to how Dumb To could perform may well be last year’s Anchorman sequel (another cherished comedy) which got off to a $28M traditional Friday to Sunday start.

Rolling out in approximately 3000 theaters, the Anchorman number is just about where I see this premiering. It could certainly reach past $30M, but I’ll put it just under that.

Dumb and Dumber To opening weekend prediction: $29.2 million

For my Beyond the Lights prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/09/beyond-the-lights-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: November 7-9

After a sleepy Halloween weekend at the box office, November will bring some much needed fireworks to the multiplex as two eagerly awaited release debut Friday. They are Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi epic Interstellar and Disney’s animated Big Hero 6. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/01/interstellar-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/01/big-hero-6-box-office-prediction/

The big question is: which one will open #1? I have Interstellar just outdoing what Gravity accomplished last year, while putting Big Hero 6 roughly in the middle of the opening weekends of Wreck-It Ralph and Frozen. That means I’m predicting Hero will edge out Interstellar for the top spot, though other prognosticators feel differently.

As for the remainder of the top five, there should be a grouping of pics that all make in the $5M range jockeying for position. I’ll predict current #1 Ouija and #3 Fury drop out.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Big Hero 6

Predicted Gross: $61.4 million

2. Interstellar

Predicted Gross: $57.2 million

3. Nightcrawler

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. Gone Girl

Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. The Book of Life

Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 31%)

Box Office Results (October 31-November 2)

As mentioned, it was a quiet weekend at the box office as Ouija managed to stay #1. The critically reviled horror flick took in $10.7 million in weekend #2, ahead of my $8.8M estimate. It’s taken in $46 million so far, which is terrific considering its tiny budget.

The critically acclaimed Jake Gyllenhall thriller Nightcrawler debuted in second with a decent $10.4 million, above my $8.1M projection. While reviewers dug it, its weak B- Cinemascore indicates a rather tough road ahead.

Other holdovers all managed to outpace my predictions for the weekend. Fury was third with $8.8 million (I predicted $7.7M). It’s taken in $60 million so far. Gone Girl was fourth with $8.4 million – compared to my $7.4M estimate. It’s up to $136M domestically and has become David Fincher’s highest grossing film stateside. The Book of Life was fifth with $8.2 million, compared to my $7.1M projection (it stands at $40M).

In weekend two, Keanu Reeves’s action pic John Wick was sixth at $7.9 million, in line with my $7.3M prediction. Its two week total is at $27M. Bill Murray’s St. Vincent help up considerably better than my $4.6M estimate as it earned $7.2 million. The comedy/drama has made $19M. In eighth was Alexander and his long title of a bad day with $6.5 million, ahead of my $4.4M projection. It’s earned $53M.

On the other hand, when it came to newbies – I vastly gave two of them too much credit. The Nicole Kidman/Colin Firth thriller Before I Go to Sleep stumbled with only $1.8 million for a 15th place debut. I predicted $3.5M. And the 10th anniversary re-release of Saw gained no traction with a pathetic $650,000 for a 20th place opening. I thought it would manage $4.1M. Oops.

That’s all for now, friends!

Big Hero 6 Box Office Prediction

In case you didn’t know, Disney and animation seem to go pretty well together most of the time and this Friday, the studio rolls out Big Hero 6. Based on a Marvel comic, the superhero comedy will attempt to debut at #1 amid strong competition from Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi epic Interstellar. 

It’s got a very good shot. Disney animation has been on a massive hot streak lately and their 2013 fall entry, Frozen, took in $400 million domestically. Big Hero 6 is getting solid reviews from critics and it currently sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. The $150 million budgeted feature seems unlikely to gross the $67 million that Frozen managed last November, though it’s certainly not out of the question. I do, however, feel it should have no problem topping the $49 million earned by Wreck-It Ralph in 2012.

My prediction reflects a belief that Big Hero 6 should manage a healthy debut with a long and prosperous run ahead. And I do believe it will open #1, just over Interstellar.

Big Hero 6 opening weekend prediction: $61.4 million

For my prediction on Interstellar, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/01/interstellar-box-office-prediction/

Interstellar Box Office Prediction

One of the most eagerly awaited titles of the year arrives Friday when Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar blasts into theaters. The science fiction epic stars recently minted Oscar winner Matthew McConaughey, Anne Hathaway, Jessica Chastain, and Nolan mainstay Michael Caine, among others.

Nolan, of course, is best known for his massive Dark Knight trilogy. He is one of the few directors around whose name sells tickets. Of course, Interstellar is not expected to come near the box office grosses of his Batman flicks. A more fair benchmark may well be 2010’s Inception, which opened to $62 million on its way to a $292 million domestic haul.

The picture currently sits at a respectable though unspectacular 74% on Rotten Tomatoes. The TV ads and trailers certainly succeed at marketing Interstellar as an “event movie” while maintaining Nolan’s desired secrecy prior to release. Reaching the Inception take of above $60M is certainly a major possibility, but my gut feeling reflects a belief that its debut will be more in line with Gravity last year. That film opened with $55.7 million in October of 2013. There could be a real battle for #1 next weekend with Disney’s Big Hero 6 premiering as well and I believe it’ll likely edge out Interstellar. Still – Nolan’s pic should enjoy a very solid roll out.

Interstellar opening weekend prediction: $57.2 million

For my Big Hero 6 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/11/01/big-hero-6-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: October 31-November 2

The Halloween weekend is shaping up to be a tepid yet unpredictable one at the box office. There are three new entries: the Jake Gyllenhall crime pic Nightcrawler, Nicole Kidman/Colin Firth thriller Before I Go to Sleep, and the 10th anniversary re-release of Saw. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/nightcrawler-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/before-i-go-to-sleep-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/saw-10th-anniversary-box-office-prediction/

None of these newbies is expected to scare up much business. Added to the misery: all holdovers should dip below double digits, assuming current champ Ouija suffers the typical horror flick big drop. That means that my estimates reflect the #1 movie for this weekend will fail to reach past $10M for the first time since September 2012 when horror pic The Possession managed to open first with just over $9 million. Simply put, this is a dull weekend at the multiplex until November heavy hitters Interstellar, Big Hero 6, Dumb and Dumber To, and Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 open.

Depending on what happens, it could be a free for all for the #1 position as the difference between my #1 and #6 are a mere $1.7M apart. For this weekend, I’ll do a rare top ten predictions and we’ll see how it all shakes out:

1. Ouija

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 56%)

2. Nightcrawler

Predicted Gross: $8.1 million

3. Fury

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 42%)

4. Gone Girl

Predicted Gross: $7.4 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. John Wick

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)

6. The Book of Life

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 38%)

7. St. Vincent

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)

8. Alexander and the Horrible, Terrible, No Good, Very Bad Day

Predicted Gross: $4.4 million (representing a drop of 38%)

9. Saw 10th Anniversary

Predicted Gross: $4.1 million

10. Before I Go to Sleep 

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

Box Office Results (October 24-26)

As expected, the pre-Halloween weekend allowed critically reviled Ouija took open #1 with $19.8 million, under my $24.9M projection. With a tiny budget, however, this will reap a nice cash flow for its studio.

Keanu Reeves saw a better than expected opening for his critically acclaimed actioner John Wick, which debuted second with $14.4 million (above my $11M estimate). The lackluster Cinemascore grade of B, though, portends it probably will fade rather quickly.

Brad Pitt’s Fury dropped to third with $13.3 million in weekend two, under my $14.8M estimate. It’s earned $46M in 10 days.

Gone Girl was fourth in its fourth weekend with $11 million, in line with my $11.6M projection. The hit has earned $124M so far.

The animated feature The Book of Life was fifth in its sophomore frame with $10 million, just below my $11.3M prediction. It’s two week total stands at $30M.

Finally, Bill Murray’s St. Vincent expanded nationwide and took in a respectable $7.7 million, not matching my $8.6M estimate.

That’s all for now!

Saw 10th Anniversary Box Office Prediction

It’s been ten years since Saw became a major cult hit that spawned six sequels and kick started the directorial career of James Wan. He would move onto The Conjuring and will soon helm the seventh Fast and Furious picture. Lionsgate is celebrating this milestone by re-releasing the original Saw in theaters for Halloween and hoping audiences make a return trip to the theater to watch Cary Elwes, Danny Glover, and Tobin Bell as Jigsaw.

There’s no doubt that the Halloween timing could help, but I’m rather skeptical crowds will turn out for a film they can easily cue up on cable or on their DVD/Blu Ray player. There is also horror competition with Ouija in its second weekend, even though that title is likely to suffer a large drop.

Rolling out on approximately 1850 screens, I’ll predict Saw fails to gross over $5M in its re-release and that many genre fans will stay at home.

Saw 10th Anniversary opening weekend prediction: $4.1 million

For my Nightcrawler prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/nightcrawler-box-office-prediction/

For my Before I Go to Sleep prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/before-i-go-to-sleep-box-office-prediction/

Before I Go to Sleep Box Office Prediction

It may star a pair of Oscar winners in Nicole Kidman and Colin Firth, but the thriller Before I Go to Sleep seems likely to be a snoozer at the box office when it opens Friday.

The pic is receiving mixed reviews, but more importantly, it’s received little TV advertisement at all stateside. I’m frankly a little surprised this didn’t go direct to VOD instead of a 1700 screen theatrical debut. If this managed to make over $5 million out of the gate, its production company should consider that a small victory. I’ll predict it doesn’t even get that far.

Before I Go to Sleep opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million

For my Nightcrawler prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/nightcrawler-box-office-prediction/

For my Saw 10th Anniversary prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/saw-10th-anniversary-box-office-prediction/

Nightcrawler Box Office Prediction

It may be destined to become a cult classic based on its early reviews as Jake Gyllenhall plays a journalist in the L.A. crime underground in Nightcrawler, out Friday.

Dan Gilroy directs the picture which costars Rene Russo, Riz Ahmed, and Bill Paxton. Critical buzz is quite positive after it screened at film festivals and this continues Gyllenhall’s trend of picking less commercial and more artistically relevant material. However, that doesn’t mean you should expect much for its opening weekend. After all, “cult film” usually indicates it won’t make much in its initial run.

To me, the question is whether or not Nightcrawler manages double digits and I’ll predict it falls short of the mark.

Nightcrawler opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million

For my Before I Go to Sleep prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/before-i-go-to-sleep-box-office-prediction/

For my Saw 10th Anniversary prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/26/saw-10th-anniversary-box-office-prediction/

St. Vincent Box Office Prediction

Well, Thursday is considerably later than I do most of my box office predictions (Sunday is the day), but we need to make an exception this week. It wasn’t until this afternoon that the theater count was released for St. Vincent, out tomorrow. The comedy/drama stars the incomparable Mr. Bill Murray with a supporting cast featuring Melissa McCarthy, Naomi Watts, and Chris O’Dowd.

St. Vincent played the film fest circuit earlier this fall and is said to be an audience pleaser. It’s been in limited release in major cities for the last two weeks. Critics have been mostly kind and it holds a respectable 74% on Rotten Tomatoes. The announcement of the screen count was a bit of a surprise: 2,282 which certainly classifies it as a wide release. This could serve as effective counter programming to this week’s other newbies, horror flick Ouija and Keanu Reeves actioner John Wick. Females could end up being a large percentage of its opening weekend audience, in addition to die-hard Murray aficionados.

That said, I still don’t believe this manages to crack the top five. An opening in double digits is certainly possible, but I believe it’ll fall under that for a sixth place debut.

St. Vincent opening weekend prediction: $8.6 million

Box Office Predictions: October 24-26

Horror and action fans have newbies to feast on this weekend as Ouija and John Wick open Friday, attempting to displace Fury from its perch atop the box office. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/19/ouija-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/10/19/john-wick-box-office-prediction/

I believe the Halloween season should allow Ouija to make it to #1, though my estimate is slightly higher than others I’ve seen. Being that it’s a horror flick, it could also surpass my expectations. If only there was a board game I could ask about it…

As far as John Wick, I’m not expecting much out of it as I don’t think it’s been marketed well enough to make it a must see among action fans.

Fury may experience a smallish decline next weekend and I anticipate the same for both Gone Girl and The Book of Life. 

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. Ouija

Predicted Gross: $24.9 million

2. Fury

Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (representing a drop of 37%)

3. Gone Girl

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. The Book of Life

Predicted Gross: $11.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

5. John Wick

Predicted Gross: $11 million

Box Office Results (October 17-19)

As expected, Brad Pitt’s Fury opened in first place with a respectable though unspectacular $23.7 million, a bit below my $26.4M projection. With decent reviews and an A- Cinemascore grade, it should hold up reasonably well in subsequent weekends.

Megahit Gone Girl slipped to second in its third weekend with $17.5 million, right on par with my $17.6M estimate. The David Fincher pic has amassed $106M so far.

The animated feature The Book of Life opened in third with a solid $17 million, slightly above my $15.6M prediction. Like most kiddie pics, it should hold up well for the foreseeable future (at least until Big Hero 6 opens).

Alexander and the Horrible, Terrible, No Good, Very Bad Day was fourth in its sophomore weekend with $11.4 million, just below my $12.5M estimate. It’s taken in $36 million in ten days and may reach around $65M domestic.

Opening with a thud in fifth was the Nicholas Sparks adaptation The Best of Me with just $10 million, well under my generous $17.8M projection. The poorly reviewed romantic drama marks the worst opening ever for a Sparks adapted novel. Perhaps opening it in February would’ve been smarter.

Slipping from second to sixth was Dracula Untold with $9.9 million, close to my $10.7M prediction. The Universal monster pic has taken in $40 million in two weeks and should finish with about $60M.

That’s all for now, my friends!