Tag: box office predictions

Will The Apes Rule Summer 2014?

Early reviews have been released for Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, out on Friday, July 11 and they are something to behold. The critic from Hollywood Reporter has compared it to The Empire Strikes Back while Variety says it bests its predecessor in every way. Drew McWeeny at Hitfix says it’s one of the year’s best films.

The box office prospects for Dawn looked bright before this rapturous word-of-mouth began and this only greatly accentuates it. 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes was released in August and quickly became one of the summer’s pleasant surprises. It received solid reviews and took in an impressive $176 million domestically.

Three years later – Apes could be in a legitimate position to claim the thrown of summer 2014’s largest grosser. This is due to a combination of certain pictures not meeting expectations. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and How to Train Your Dragon 2 immediately come to mind. X-Men: Days of Future Past performed solidly, but should top out at around $235 million while Disney’s Maleficent may earn just under that.

The picture to beat (unsurprisingly) is Transformers: Age of Extinction, which got off to an estimated $100 million start this weekend. Still, that opening means a probable gross of between $250-$275 million and $300 million is a stretch.

Dawn‘s fawning reviews could lead to it being seen as a must-see event picture. We have seen examples of tent pole flick sequels outshining their predecessors in recent years. 2000’s X-Men earned $157 million while its better reviewed sequel X2 made $214 million, a $57 million improvement. 2002’s The Bourne Identity made $121 million while The Bourne Supremacy hauled in $176 million two years later… a $55 million improvement. 2011’s Captain America made $176 million (coincidentally Rise‘s gross) while its sequel The Winter Soldier will top out at over $260 million… about an $85 million upgrade.

And then there’s the largest example by a mile. 2005’s Batman Begins grossed $206 million domestically while The Dark Knight three years later earned an astonishing $534 million. While Dawn will get nowhere near that figure, it’s reasonable now to see a path close to $300 million, which would make it the season’s top dog… or ape.

Having said all that, the bots of Transformers could still end up on top. And as far as the full year’s top grosser – that crown should belong to The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part I when it debuts this fall. Regardless, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes has become a real contender in summer 2014 and we will see just how much monkey business it manages very soon.

Earth to Echo Box Office Prediction

Relativity Media in conjunction with Disney Studios have teamed up for Earth to Echo, a kiddie pic which opens over the July 4th holiday weekend. Unless I’m missing something, this tale of four children who befriend an alien has been very under promoted and its box office prospects seem shaky at best.

The best hope that Earth to Echo has is capturing a family audience looking for anything to watch during the long weekend. There’s a case to be made: How to Train Your Dragon 2 has disappointed with its results and left a void. Having said that, many parents might be taking their kids to Transformers second weekend. And, truth be told, Dragon 2 and May’s Legends of Oz have proven that family audiences won’t automatically flock to a family film just because it is one.

Add all that up and I see a muted opening for Echo.

Earth to Echo opening weekend prediction: $8 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $12.3 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my Tammy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/29/tammy-box-office-prediction/

For my Deliver Us from Evil prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/29/deliver-us-from-evil-box-office-prediction/

Deliver Us from Evil Box Office Prediction

Horror flicks have not performed well as of yet in 2014 with failures such as Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, Oculus, and Devil’s Due all failing to make an impact with audiences. This Fourth of July weekend, Jerry Bruckheimer’s production company attempts to reverse that trend with Deliver Us from Evil.

Scott Derrickson, who made well-received horror pics The Exorcism of Emily Rose and Sinister, directs this tale of a New York cop (Eric Bana) who investigates demonic possession activities in the city. Edgar Ramirez, Olivia Munn, and Joel McHale (!) costar.

Horror films are historically tricky to predict. Some can make way more in their opening weekends that prognosticators like myself believe, but Evil seems to be flying somewhat under the radar. There’s also the fact that in the summer season – there’s a whole lot of competition out there. Transformers should still rule the box office over the holiday weekend. Ironically, Mark Wahlberg was originally attached to this project before dropping out, allowing Bana to come on board. Over the five-day weekend, it’s prospects of topping $20 million seem decent, though I wouldn’t be shocked if it falls even below that.

Deliver Us from Evil opening weekend prediction: $13.1 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $20.6 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my Tammy prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/29/tammy-box-office-prediction/

For my Earth to Echo prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/29/earth-to-echo-box-office-prediction/

Tammy Box Office Prediction

The Fourth of July holiday weekend will inform us as to whether or not Melissa McCarthy’s box office hot streak keeps rolling along with Tammy. Three summers ago, her supporting role in Bridesmaids earned her accolades and even an Oscar nomination. In 2013, Identity Thief with Jason Bateman opened to $34.5 million and The Heat with Sandra Bullock debuted to $39.1 million.

Tammy, more than any other McCarthy pic yet, rests on her shoulders. It is co-written and directed by her husband Ben Falcone and costars familiar faces like Susan Sarandon, Kathy Bates, Toni Collette, Allison Janney, and Dan Aykroyd. Yet there’s no doubt the trailers and TV spots are focused on its star. McCarthy is one of the few comedic performers who can open a feature… or at least probably do so. Reviews aren’t out yet and it wouldn’t be surprising if they were mixed or negative. However, that didn’t hurt Identity Thief one bit and it likely won’t affect this.

This opens over the Fourth of July weekend so I’ll predict its traditional Friday-to-Sunday haul and its five-day take from its debut on Wednesday, July 2. Ultimately I believe Tammy will manage to earn in five days just over what The Heat did last summer. That should put it comfortably at #2 over the holiday after Transformers sophomore weekend.

Tammy box office prediction: $27.3 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $42.9 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my Deliver Us from Evil prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/29/deliver-us-from-evil-box-office-prediction/

For my Earth to Echo prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/29/earth-to-echo-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: June 27-29

There’s just one newcomer entering the multiplex this weekend – but it’s a big one. Transformers: Age of Extinction is expected by many (including this blogger) to post the heftiest opening weekend of 2014 so far. You can read my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/22/transformers-age-of-extinction-box-office-prediction/

My estimate for Extinction is actually a big lower than that of others so we’ll see how I do come Monday of next week. As for holdovers, I’m expecting the current #1 Think Like a Man Too to drop over 50% in its second weekend while 22 Jump Street might not quite lose half its audience in weekend 3. That could definitely mean 22 Jump Street remains second while Man Too drops to third.

DreamWorks animated financial letdown How to Train Your Dragon 2 should be 4th in its third weekend while a battle for fifth could ensue between the second weekend of Jersey Boys and fifth weekend of Maleficent.

And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top six:

1. Transformers: Age of Extinction

Predicted Gross: $98.6 million

2. 22 Jump Street

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (representing a drop of 48%)

3. Think Like a Man Too

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million (representing a drop of 53%)

4. How to Train Your Dragon 2

Predicted Gross: $13 million (representing a drop of 47%)

5. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 36%)

6. Jersey Boys

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 41%)

Box Office Results (June 20-22)

As predicted, Kevin Hart’s Think Like a Man Too topped the box office charts out of the gate, but it didn’t match my expectation. It took in $29.4 million, below my $38.2M estimate. The sequel couldn’t match the $33 million opening of its predecessor which was a bit of a surprise. Still, with a meager reported budget of $24 million, Man Too is quite a success.

22 Jump Street dipped to second with $27.4 million, right in line with my $27.3M projection. The Jonah Hill/Channing Tatum comedy sequel has amassed an impressive $109 million in just ten days.

How to Train Your Dragon 2 continued to underperform with $24.7 million in weekend #2, well below my $32 million estimate. The animated flick has not met expectations with $94 million so far. It will probably not match the performance of its predecessor’s $217 million. Most prognosticators figured it would easily surpass that number.

Clint Eastwood’s Jersey Boys had a muted debut at fourth with $13.3 million – below my generous $18.9M prediction. While the pic received mostly decent reviews, adult audiences treated the Four Seasons biopic with ambivalence. Disney’s Maleficent held up well in its fourth weekend with $12.9 million, outpacing my $10.4M prediction. The Angelina Jolie flick has earned $185 million so far and should blast past $200M shortly.

That’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Transformers: Age of Extinction Box Office Prediction

This Friday, Transformers: Age of Extinction will attempt to score the biggest opening weekend of 2014 and its chances are pretty darn solid. That title is currently held by Captain America: The Winter Soldier, which scored $95 million in its debut.

Director Michael Bay is back behind the camera just as he was for the first three installments. However, have an entirely new cast that includes Mark Wahlberg, Stanley Tucci, and Kelsey Grammer. The trilogy’s star Shia LaBeouf is nowhere to be seen… and he’s probably off doing something really weird somewhere.

Comparing the Age of Extinction‘s predicted gross to the other franchise entrees is a tricky proposition. That’s because the other films opened on Tuesdays or Wednesdays with some on Fourth of July holiday weekends. The third flick Dark of the Moon took in a whopping $180 million over a six-day period. The second Revenge of the Fallen grossed $200.1 million over five days while the original made $155.4 million over five days in 2007.

The premiere of Extinction is unlikely to reach those levels since it will only be for its traditional weekend haul (plus Thursday night grosses). It’s also a legitimate question as to whether the franchise has lost a bit of steam. As I see it, the big question is if this clears $100 million out of the gate. I’m not totally confident that it will. The range of how this opens could be $120 million on the high end. Anything below $90 million would be considered low, especially considering the openings of the first three pictures.

Ultimately, I believe the dinobots and decepticons and autobots will claim the title of #1 opening so far in 2014, but not by much.

Transformers: Age of Extinction opening weekend prediction: $98.6 million

Box Office Predictions: June 20-22

Two new pictures enter the marketplace this Friday with the Kevin Hart led sequel Think Like a Man Too and the Clint Eastwood directed adaptation of the Broadway smash Jersey Boys. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/think-like-a-man-too-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/jersey-boys-box-office-prediction/

Depending on the percentage drops of sequels 22 Jump Street and How To Train Your Dragon 2, there could be a legitimate three-way race for the top spot among those “part two’s” and the second Think Like a Man. My prediction for Man is on the higher end of expectations and I’m estimating Jump Street loses about half its audience and Dragon only loses around one-third of its debut gross.

This should leave Jersey Boys opening in the four spot with Maleficent rounding out the top five.

And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Think Like a Man Too

Predicted Gross: $38.2 million

2. How To Train Your Dragon 2

Predicted Gross: $32 million (representing a drop of 35%)

3. 22 Jump Street

Predicted Gross: $27.3 million (representing a drop of 52%)

4. Jersey Boys

Predicted Gross: $18.9 million

5. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 44%)

Box Office Results (June 13-15)

Well it’s not often that I miss a prediction by nearly $40 million dollars, but I’m embarrassed to report it happened this weekend. Simply put, How To Train Your Dragon 2 didn’t come anywhere close to what I believed to be its potential. Many insiders had pegged this as a candidate for summer 2014’s biggest grosser and I bought into it. It earned a just OK $49.4 million compared to my $88.7 million prediction. Ouch.

This allowed 22 Jump Street to post a terrific #1 opening with $57 million, just above my $53.1M projection. The goodwill left over from the 2012 original and rock solid reviews clearly contributed to its success.

Maleficent took the #3 spot in its third weekend with $18.5 million, barely outpacing my $17.4M estimate. The Disney hit had taken in $163M so far and looks to surpass $200 million when all is said and done.

Tom Cruise’s Edge of Tomorrow held up better in weekend #2 than I thought it would with $16.5 million for fourth, ahead of my $13.8M estimate. It’s taken in $57 million in ten days and has a shot of getting to $100 million.

This means last weekend’s #1 The Fault in Our Stars dipped further than my estimate with $14.7 million in its sophomore frame. I predicted $17.9 million. The John Green adapted weepie fell a steep 67%, but it’s already made $80 million in ten days and had a meager $12 million budget.

That’s all for now, folks. Until next time!

 

Jersey Boys Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros Pictures attempts a summer counterprogramming move with Jersey Boys, Clint Eastwood’s adaptation of the hugely successful Broadway musical. The pic tells the story of Frankie Valli and the Four Seasons group and the studio is hopeful that adults will turn their attention to this after a healthy heaping of comic book flicks, comedies, and action spectacles over the last few weeks.

With a cast of mostly unknowns save for Christopher Walken, Jersey Boys is mostly relying on its built-in audience who’ve seen the Broadway hit. We’ve certainly seen our share of pictures based on Broadway musicals that have been successful over recent years, including Chicago, Dreamgirls, Mamma Mia, and Les Miserables. On the other hand, Rock of Ages bombed two summers ago with only $38 million domestic.

The ceiling for Jersey Boys is around $25 million as I see it. If it gets beyond that, it would be quite a surprise. This type of adult fare is likely to succeed or fail based on how audiences like it and whether or not it receives small declines in subsequent weekends. I believe the likely scenario is for Jersey Boys to grow in the high teens or low 20s out of the gate.

Jersey Boys opening weekend prediction: $18.9 million

For my Think Like a Man Too prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/think-like-a-man-too-box-office-prediction/

Think Like a Man Too Box Office Prediction

This Friday we will see if Kevin Hart’s terrific 2014 continues with Think Like a Man Too, the sequel to his surprise 2012 near blockbuster. The original got off to an impressive $33 million opening two years ago on its way to a $91M domestic gross. This is especially strong considering it cost a reported $12 million to produce. Since that time, Hart’s drawing power at the multiplex has only increased as this January’s Ride Along debuted to $41 million and the ensemble piece About Last Night made $25 million out of the gate in February.

With a supporting cast including Michael Ealy, Jerry Ferrera, Gabrielle Union, Regina Hall, Meagan Good, and Taraji P. Henson – Think Like a Man Too should succeed in bringing in African-American audiences and particularly females who made up 63% of the original’s opening weekend gross. There is one difference between this and the original and Ride Along – there is much more competition with its summer release. In particular, the second weekend of 22 Jump Street will still be bringing in the comedy crowds.

I believe Man Too should outshine the premiere gross of its predecessor but won’t quite reach Ride Along‘s level. It could surpass my expectations and a gross of $45 million wouldn’t shock me, but I’m going with high 30s for my prediction.

Think Like a Man Too opening weekend prediction: $38.2 million

For my Jersey Boys prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/15/jersey-boys-box-office-prediction/

 

 

 

 

 

Box Office Predictions: June 13-15

Two very different sequels debut Friday and both are expected to inject a shot of adrenaline to the summer box office. DreamWorks animated How to Train Your  Dragon 2 and the R rated Jonah Hill/Channing Tatum comedy 22 Jump Street are the newbies and you can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/08/how-to-train-your-dragon-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/08/22-jump-street-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I expect both sequels to open north of what their predecessors accomplished and I’m estimating this will be the first (and probably only) summer 2014 weekend that sees two pictures open above $50M.

The Fault in Our Stars is the current champ and it got off to a terrific start. However, it’s likely to suffer a big decline in weekend #2 due to many of its fans rushing to see it out of the gate. Maleficent in its third weekend should lose around half its audience and the same bodes for Tom Cruise’s Edge of Tomorrow.

If Fault drops as far as I’m predicting, it could create a real race for #3 with Maleficent.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2

Predicted Gross: $88.7 million

2. 22 Jump Street

Predicted Gross: $53.1 million

3. The Fault in Our Stars

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million (representing a drop of 62%)

4. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Edge of Tomorrow

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

Box Office Results (June 6-8)

While I was right on point with this past weekend’s holdovers, I didn’t give either of the new entries quite enough credit.

The Fault in Our Stars dominated with a terrific $48 million debut – beyond my $43.1M projection. The book’s fans came out in droves and the pic managed to quadruple its meager budget in its initial weekend. As mentioned above, it’s likely to suffer a precipitous drop in weekend #2, but even if it does – Fault is unquestionably one of the season’s major sleepers.

Maleficent held up decently in its sophomore frame with $34.2 million – right on pace with my $34M estimate. The Disney feature has earned $128M so far and a $200M domestic gross is within reach.

Edge of Tomorrow couldn’t quite capitalize on its rock solid reviews and the Tom Cruise sci-fi actioner opened with a so-so $28.7 million. It did manage to top my $23.7M prediction, but considering its $178M massive budget – this is a letdown.

At fourth in its third weekend was X-Men: Days of Future Past with $15.1 million, on pace with my $14.9M estimate. The flick has made $189 million so far. In fifth was the Seth MacFarlane bomb A Million Ways to Die in the West with $7.3 million in weekend two, on par with my $7.1M projection. West has made only $30 million in ten days and it struggle to reach $50M.

That’s all for now, folks!