Box Office Predictions: December 19-21

It’s a busy pre-Christmas box office weekend as The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, and Annie all make their debuts. Additionally, the Reese Witherspoon drama Wild expands its theater count to approximately 850 screens. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each at the following links:

As you can see, The Hobbit should easily rule the weekend, however its Wednesday unveiling (unlike its two predecessors) should give it the lowest three day start of the franchise.

I expect Night at the Museum to open lower than its two predecessors, while Annie should see a lackluster beginning. Opening on less than a third of its competitors, Wild should manage a respectable sixth place debut.

As for holdovers, this weekend’s champ Exodus: Gods and Kings underwhelmed out of the gate and its drubbing from critics and moviegoers (a troubling B- Cinemascore) means it should suffer a hefty fall. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1 should round out the top five.

With that, my top six predictions for the weekend:

1. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Predicted Gross: $67.1 million (Friday to Sunday), $93.6 million (Wednesday to Sunday)

2. Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb

Predicted Gross: $25.4 million

3. Annie

Predicted Gross: $17.6 million

4. Exodus: Gods and Kings

Predicted Gross: $9.7 million (representing a drop of 59%)

5. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1

Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 37%)

6. Wild

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million

Box Office Results (December 12-14)

Its #1 opening was never really in question, but as mentioned above, Ridley Scott’s Exodus: Gods and Kings disappointed with a middling $24.1 million premiere. This is much less than my projected $35.5M. Clearly the negative buzz hindered it and a steep fall (especially with Hobbit competition) seems inevitable.

The Hunger Games three-quel slipped to second with $12.6 million, a bit higher than my $11.4M prediction. It stands at $276M in four weeks and while that’s nothing to sneeze at, it will be the lowest domestic earner of the franchise to date.

Penguins of Madagascar continued its unimpressive run with $7.2 million, in line with my $6.9M estimate. Its total is at $58M.

The acclaimed Chris Rock comedy Top Five debuted fourth with $6.8 million, well under my generous $11.6M prediction. While I certainly gave it too much credit, this is a fairly solid haul for a picture than opened on less than 1000 screens.

Disney’s hit Big Hero 6 was fifth with $6 million (I predicted $5.4M). It’s grossed $185M to date.

And that’s all for now, my friends! Until next time…


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