The Giver opens Friday and the youth oriented science fiction flick poses a serious question: will audiences turn out for it and who is the intended audience? The Weinstein Company seems to have little faith in the project and its marketing campaign has been quite underwhelming. Based on a 1993 Lois Lowry novel, the pic does have some serious talent behind it. The adult stars are Oscar winners Jeff Bridges (who coproduced) and Meryl Streep, with Katie Holmes and singer Taylor Swift in supporting roles. Phillip Noyce, director of Patriot Games and Salt, is behind the camera.
Aside from its subdued marketing, other challenges face The Giver. If it’s going for the youth audience, there’s Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy to contend with. The film’s budget is a meager $30 million and yet it still may struggle to recoup that cost domestically. The Giver could struggle to reach double digits, but I’ll predict it does manage that unimpressive benchmark for what’ll likely be a fifth place opening next weekend.
Last summer, the raunchy comedy We’re the Millers was a breakout August hit which opened on a Wednesday. The Jennifer Aniston/Jason Sudeikis pic took in $37 million over its five-day frame and $26 million from Friday to Sunday, on its way to grossing over $150M domestically. This Friday, Let’s Be Cops with Jake Johnson and Damon Wayans, Jr. will attempt the same feat.
While I believe Cops could be poised for a solid debut, it seems to me that Millers territory is unlikely. Costarring Andy Garcia and Rob Riggle, Cops has received a robust marketing campaign from Fox and the trailers and TV spots are pretty funny. It’s almost been two months since the last successful comedy, 22 Jump Street, so audiences could be primed for laughs. There’s no reviews yet and that could be somewhat of a factor – seeing that negative critical reaction helped sink last month’s Sex Tape. In addition, unlike Millers, none of the stars of Cops have any sort of box office track record.
That said, the dearth of comedies out now should lead this to a three day opening in the high teens and a possible mid 20s five day haul.
Let’s Be Cops opening weekend prediction: $17.7 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $23.4 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)
For my prediction on The Expendables 3, click here:
Sylvester Stallone and his geriatric all-star group of action icons are back once again in The Expendables 3, out Friday. This franchise has been a consistent one this decade with the first and second installments being released on the same mid-August weekend in 2010 and 2012. However, there is a discouraging trend with the series. While the original took in $34 million opening weekend with an overall $103M domestic haul, the follow-up couldn’t keep pace. The Expendables 2 made $28 million out of the gate with a final $85M gross. Stallone hasn’t seen any of his other recent projects perform well and it’s easy to see where #3 could continue the downward performance of the franchise.
It must be said that Stallone’s ability to get genre stars on board is impressive. The Expendables 3 features Arnold Schwarzenegger, Mel Gibson, Harrison Ford, Jason Statham, Jet Li, Wesley Snipes, Antonio Banderas, Dolph Lundgren, Terry Crews, Randy Couture, and Kelsey Grammer. However, I don’t feel all that star power will translate to a very impressive debut. An opening on par with the last entry’s $28M seems unlikely, though I think the series has just enough juice (not a steroid reference) to get it past $20M.
The Expendables 3 opening weekend prediction: $21.5 million
This Friday, four new titles will try to knock massive hit Guardians of the Galaxy from its perch atop the box office. They are the franchise reboot of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, found footage disaster flick Into the Storm, the Helen Mirren led comedic drama The Hundred-Foot Journey, and dance competition sequel Step Up: All In. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
The only newbie with a fair shot of challenging Guardians would seem to be Turtles. However, I am going on the low end of expectations for it. Some have it grossing above $30 million and even closer to $40M, but I believe excitement isn’t quite that high and a robust second weekend for Guardians may hurt it.
Into the Storm looks like a relative flop to me, though some have it outpacing my estimate. The Hundred-Foot Journey should barely top double digits while diminishing results for each successive Step Up flick could hurt All In.
As for holdovers, Guardians got off to a truly spectacular start (more on that below). It will likely fall in the same range as other Marvel hits in their sophomore weekends. In its third weekend, Luc Besson’s Lucy should continue to lose over half its audience. The James Brown biopic Get On Up got off to a disappointing start, but with its A Cinemascore grade, I see it having the smallest decline in its second weekend.
And with that – we’ll do a Top Seven for my projections this weekend:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy
Predicted Gross: $42.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)
2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Predicted Gross: $28.2 million
3. Into the Storm
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
4. The Hundred-Foot Journey
Predicted Gross: $10.7 million
5. Get On Up
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 34%)
6. Step Up: All In
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
7. Lucy
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 55%)
Box Office Results (August 1-3)
As previously mentioned, Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy got off to an astonishingly terrific run with $94.3 million. The very well-reviewed pic boasted the third highest opening of 2014, behind Transformers: Age of Extinction and Captain America: The Winter Soldier. It opened nearly $20M above my $74.6M prediction. Guardians may well be in a position to eventually become the summer’s largest grosser. Simply put, the Marvel gravy train keeps chugging along…
Lucy dropped to second with $18.2 million in its sophomore weekend, above my $16.6M projection. The Scarlett Johannson actioner has taken in $79M so far and should certainly top $100M domestically.
Get On Up had a lackluster premiere with $13.5 million, way below my $24.9M estimate. It received solid reviews, especially for star Chadwick Boseman, yet it failed to bring in its intended adult audience.
Hercules dropped to fourth in weekend #2 with $11 million, below my $13M prediction. The Rock’s flick has earned $52 million and should top out around $75M.
In fifth was Dawn of the Planet of the Apes in its fourth weekend with $8.6 million, on target with my $8.5M estimate. Dawn has made $189M and should get to around $215M overall.
While I certainly won’t purport to be an expert in the Step Up film franchise, I can read box office numbers. And there is no doubt that this eight year old series of dance flicks has been on a downward trajectory. Step Up: All In marks the fifth (yes, fifth) entry in the boogie down competition pictures. Each has grossed less than the previous installment.
The 2006 original opened to $20M on its way to a $65M domestic gross. Its 2008 follow-up Step Up 2 the Streets premiered to $18M with an eventual $58M haul. The third pic in 2010 – Step Up 3-D opened to $15M with a $42M overall take. And All In‘s 2012 predecessor Step Up Revolution took in $11M out of the gate with a final gross of $35M.
I see no compelling reason why All In won’t carry on the trend of diminished earnings. I’ll even predict the fifth pic will be the first that fails to debut in double digits, though it should come fairly close.
Step Up: All In opening weekend prediction: $8.4 million
For my Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles prediction, click here:
Oscar winner Helen Mirren stars in the comedy/drama The Hundred-Foot Journey from Lasse Hallstrom, director of The Cider House Rules. Focusing on an Indian family who relocate to France to open a restaurant only to be met with opposition from Mirren’s nearby restaurateur, it’s based on a 2010 novel and its TV ads have promoted its producers as much as the award winning star.
That’s because the producers include Steven Spielberg and Oprah Winfrey and ads have featured both extolling the film’s virtues. Journey is certainly attempting to appeal to adults tired of blockbusters and fans of the Oprah brand, which certainly isn’t insignificant. Strong reviews would be needed to propel this to hit status and, so far, they seem to be mixed. Opening on approximately 2000 screens – I’ll predict it will find slight counterprogramming success which should allow an opening gross just above double digits.
The Hundred-Foot Journey opening weekend prediction: $10.7 million
For my Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles prediction, click here:
This Friday – yet another “found footage” action flick comes our way with Into the Storm, concentrating on a devastating tornado. The Warner Bros. release faces serious action competition with Guardians of the Galaxy, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, and even Lucy‘s third weekend. There are no stars headlining the project, though there are some recognizable faces including The Hobbit‘s Richard Armitage, “Walking Dead” actress Sarah Wayne Callies, and “Veep” costar Matt Walsh.
It’s hard to see how Into the Storm breaks through to audiences in a big way. The trailers haven’t been real successful in making this look like any other than a low-rent Twister knockoff. Made for a relatively modest $50 million, Storm may even struggle to recoup its budget stateside. With serious competition and little driving moviegoers to see it unless you’re a major bad weather fan, I’ll predict Storm opens south of $15 million.
Into the Storm opening weekend prediction: $13.6 million
For my Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles prediction, click here:
Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy should easily rule the first weekend of the August box office while the James Brown biopic Get On Up could come in for a second place finish. You can find my individual prediction posts on each of them here:
Current #1 and #2 Lucy and Hercules both got off to healthy debuts this past weekend and both are likely to suffer hefty declines in their sophomore frames. In its fourth weekend, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes should round out the top five.
And with that, my predictions for the upcoming weekend:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy
Predicted Gross: $74.6 million
2. Get On Up
Predicted Gross: $24.9 million
3. Lucy
Predicted Gross: $16.6 million (representing a drop of 62%)
4. Hercules
Predicted Gross: $13 million (representing a drop of 57%)
5. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)
Box Office Results (July 25-27)
Luc Besson’s Lucy with Scarlett Johannson easily took the #1 spot with a terrific $43.8 million – well above my $28.1M prediction. While its opening is undeniably fantastic, it received only a C+ Cinemascore rating meaning audiences weren’t pleased with the results.
Hercules with Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson had a solid #2 premiere with $29.8 million, above my $21.4M estimate. Better than expected reviews could have contributed to its decent performance.
Falling to third after two weeks on top, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes made $16.7 million, a bit under my $19.4M projection. The ape sequel has earned $172 million so far and should approach a final gross of $215M.
The Purge: Anarchy was expected to suffer a precipitous drop and it did with $10.4 million in weekend #2, right on par with my $10.3M prediction.
Rounding out the top five was Disney’s Planes: Fire & Rescue with $9.5 million in its sophomore frame, under my $11.2M projection. The animated sequel has made a middling $35 million.
Finally, the Michael Douglas/Diane Keaton rom com And So It Goes sputtered with only $4.6 million for an eighth place debut – less than half of my generous $9.3M estimate.
The Godfather of Soul gets his own biopic when Get On Up debuts in theaters this Friday. Chadwick Boseman, who played Jackie Robinson in the hit 42, portrays James Brown with The Help director Tate Taylor behind the camera. Costars include Dan Aykroyd, Viola Davis, Octavia Spencer, Craig Robinson, and Jill Scott.
Get On Up could be in a good position for a solid debut. Taylor’s The Help opened in August three summers ago to $26 million. That would certainly be a good number for this. 42 premiered to $27 million in 2013.
The pic could be successful in bringing in African-American audiences and adult moviegoers burnt out on sci-fi blockbusters. I’ll predict Get On Up manages a debut in the mid 20s.
Get On Up opening weekend prediction: $24.9 million
For my Guardians of the Galaxy prediction, click here:
Marvel Studios is back in action this Friday with Guardians of the Galaxy, their $170 million dollar project that is certainly more of a gamble than their previous megahits. It’s based on a comic book not nearly as well-known as Iron Man, Captain America, or Thor – in other words, the Avengers cast.
Still positive signals are sprouting up. The James Gunn directed saga boasts a 100% current score on Rotten Tomatoes and TV spots are omnipresent. The cast features Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, Vin Diesel, and Bradley Cooper as the voice of Rocket, a genetically engineered raccoon.
While Guardians is not likely to match the $95M debut that the latest Disney/Marvel pic, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, opened at – a healthy debut is expected. I foresee a premiere in the mid seventies and if word of mouth is solid (and it should be), it could have a nice run at the #1 spot.
Guardians of the Galaxy opening weekend prediction: $74.6 million
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