Oscar Predictions: Whalefall

20th Century Studios is hopeful that Whalefall makes a splash at the box office this weekend. Adapted from the 2023 novel by Daniel Kraus and directed by Brian Duffield (the two wrote the script together), Austin Abrams stars as a scuba diver stuck in the belly of a sperm whale. The survival thriller is also a family drama with Josh Brolin as his dad. Elisabeth Shue, John Ortiz, Jane Levy, and Emily Rudd are among the supporting players.

The review embargo is up and mixed to positive notices have greeted it. “A bit too earnest” seems to be a theme. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with Metacritic at 62. It won’t enter the discussion for any major award categories but its tech work could get noticed. Critics are being kind to it practical effects so Visual Effects is a possibility. I suspect it will make the shortlist a couple months down the line. There are heavy hitters in VE including Project Hail Mary, The Odyssey, Godzilla Minus Zero, and almost certainly the unscreened Dune: Part Three. Plenty of movies could be jockeying for one or at best two slots including this. The same logic applies to Best Sound. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

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