Out July 10th and arriving nearly a decade behind the original, Moana is Disney’s latest live-action rendering of their animated blockbusters. The musical adventure marks the directorial debut of Broadway vet Thomas Kail with Dwayne Johnson reprising his role as Maui and Catherine Laga’aia making her big screen debut in the title role. Costars include John Tui, Frankie Adams, Jemaine Clement, and Rena Owen.
In 2016, Moana kicked off with $56 million over the traditional Thanksgiving weekend and $82 million over the five-day holiday frame. The domestic haul was an eventual $248 million. Over Turkey Day in 2024, Moana 2 tremendously exceeded expectations with $139 million from Friday to Sunday, $225 million for the five-day, and $460 million overall.
The Mouse House wasted no time with this live-action version to capitalize on the franchise’s viability. An argument could be made that the eight-year wait between the first two Moana‘s helped with anticipation. That may not be the case for this version considering that two years hasn’t even lapsed. Minions & Monsters and Toy Story 5 are still offering competition for family crowds. That could spell trouble for Moana and I’m projecting only mid 50s for what would be seen as a major letdown.
Moana opening weekend prediction: $54.3 million
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