Tag: Jemaine Clement

Wildwood Box Office Prediction

Stop-motion animated fantasy Wildwood is the latest effort for distributor Laika and their first this decade. Directed by Travis Knight, the voice cast includes Peyton Elizabeth Lee, Jacob Tremblay, Carey Mulligan, Mahershala Ali, Awkwafina, Angela Bassett, Jake Johnson, Charlie Day, Amandla Stenberg, Jemaine Clement, Tom Waits, and Richard E. Grant. Following its premiere at the London Film Festival, it hits domestic screens on October 23rd.

Critics are on it side and it could be a frontrunner for Best Animated Feature prize at the Oscars. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with 86 on Metacritic. Laika’s projects are typically acclaimed and all five previous features have been Academy nominated in its genre category. That hasn’t always translated to box office dollars stateside.

In 2016, Kubo and the Two Strings (also directed by Knight) debuted with $12.6 million and that’s under what predecessors Coraline, ParaNorman, and The Boxtrolls started off with. That trio all premiered between $14-17 million. The last Laika tale, 2019’s Missing Link, was a major commercial failure with $5.9 million out of the gate.

I’m expecting Wildwood to do better, but not much better.

Wildwood opening weekend prediction: $7.2 million

For my Clayface prediction, click here:

Clayface Box Office Prediction

For my Klara and the Sun prediction, click here:

Klara and the Sun Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Wildwood

Stop-motion indie animation studio Laika is 5 for 5 when it comes to nominations for Best Animated Feature and 0 for 5 in podium trips. Each time they have lost to Disney. In 2009, Laika’s inaugural project Coraline went down to Up. Three years later, ParaNorman fell short to Brave while 2014’s The Boxtrolls couldn’t beat out Big Hero 6. In 2016, Kubo and the Two Strings didn’t catch Zootopia. Missing Link in 2019 was an honorable mention to Toy Story 4.

That dynamic may finally change in 2026. Travis Knight, who directed Kubo, is back with the studio (months after the live-action Masters of the Universe debacle) via Wildwood. The dark fantasy, based on a 2011 novel, has premiered at the London Film Festival and arrives theatrically on October 23rd. Voiceover artists include Peyton Elizabeth Lee, Jacob Tremblay, Carey Mulligan, Mahershala Ali, Awkwafina, Angela Bassett, Jake Johnson, Charlie Day, Amandla Stenberg, Jemaine Clement, Tom Waits, and Richard E. Grant.

For the last several weeks on the blog, I’ve had Wildwood listed at #1 in Animated Feature based mostly on hunch. There’s also the matter of Disney’s Toy Story 5 and Hoppers not seeming like win contenders. Early WOM from London encourages my notion. Rotten Tomatoes is at 100% with several reviews calling it Laika’s strongest entry thus far. I would be surprised if it didn’t remain my frontrunner in the animated field moving forward.

Can Wildwood branch out elsewhere? The short answer is yes. A solid campaign could open up Adapted Screenplay or Visual Effects. The score is being complimented and the Decemberists have an original song titled “The Better Part of Bravery”. I also could see this being a lone Animated Feature player and the first that gets past the Mouse House. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Moana (2026)

Arriving in theaters this weekend and not even a decade behind the animated original, Disney’s live-action version of Moana hopes for smooth sailing at the box office. Broadway vet Thomas Kail makes his directorial debut with Dwayne Johnson headlining and Catherine Laga’aia in the title role. Costars include Rena Owen, John Tui, Frankie Adams, and Jemaine Clement.

In 2016, the Mouse House had a commercial and critical darling with the animated pic. The Rotten Tomatoes score was 95% with Metacritic at 81. A Best Animated Feature nomination followed (losing to the studio’s own Zootopia) along with an Original Song mention for “How Far I’ll Go” (written by Lin-Manuel Miranda). Reviews were not as strong for the 2024 sequel (61% RT, 58 MC) and no Oscar attention was paid.

The downward trend continues with this live-action rendering. The Tomato meter is a lowly 36% with Metacritic at 45. Even though Miranda contributes an Original Song, it’s safe to assume this Moana will not be an awards player in any way. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Moana (2026) Box Office Prediction

Out July 10th and arriving nearly a decade behind the original, Moana is Disney’s latest live-action rendering of their animated blockbusters. The musical adventure marks the directorial debut of Broadway vet Thomas Kail with Dwayne Johnson reprising his role as Maui and Catherine Laga’aia making her big screen debut in the title role. Costars include John Tui, Frankie Adams, Jemaine Clement, and Rena Owen.

In 2016, Moana kicked off with $56 million over the traditional Thanksgiving weekend and $82 million over the five-day holiday frame. The domestic haul was an eventual $248 million. Over Turkey Day in 2024, Moana 2 tremendously exceeded expectations with $139 million from Friday to Sunday, $225 million for the five-day, and $460 million overall.

The Mouse House wasted no time with this live-action version to capitalize on the franchise’s viability. An argument could be made that the eight-year wait between the first two Moana‘s helped with anticipation. That may not be the case for this version considering that two years hasn’t even lapsed. Minions & Monsters and Toy Story 5 are still offering competition for family crowds. That could spell trouble for Moana and I’m projecting only mid 50s for what would be seen as a major letdown.

Moana opening weekend prediction: $54.3 million

For my Evil Dead Burn prediction, click here:

Evil Dead Burn Box Office Prediction

For my The Invite prediction, click here:

The Invite Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – Avatar: Fire and Ash

Avatar: Fire and Ash, James Cameron’s third feature in his epic sci-fi franchise, is the last major piece of the 98th Academy Awards puzzle to come into focus. Opening Friday, the review embargo was lifted today as it hopes to rule the box office over the holidays. While it looks to join the multi-billion dollar club like its two predecessors, Fire additionally seeks to heat up Oscar ballots.

The 2009 original landed nine nominations – Picture, Director, Art Direction (which it won), Cinematography (another victory), Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects (a third trophy). Its Rotten Tomatoes score was 81% with 83 on Metacritic.

When Avatar: The Way of Water came out 13 years later, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing was combined into just Sound while Art Direction was now Production Design. Water was nominated for both along with Picture. The sole win came for its Visual Effects. Rotten Tomatoes was 76% with Metacritic at 67.

Fire critical reaction is so far the weakest of the trilogy with 70% on RT and a 61 Metacritic. With Oscar shortlists released this afternoon, we already know it won’t be nominated for Cinematography since it is not one of the contending 16 features. It did make four other shortlisted races – Original Score, Original Song (the Miley Cyrus track “Dream As One”), Sound, and Visual Effects.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way – Visual Effects is a given and Fire is the frontrunner. Sound is likely. I’m not convinced it makes the musical cut in either Score or Song.

What’s left is Picture and Production Design – the other two competitions where the other Avatar‘s got in. The latter is a stronger possibility. This third trip to Pandora could still get into BP. Yet if the Academy goes with a successful late 2025 sequel, I’d give Wicked: For Good an edge. It’s entirely feasible that neither get in. I suspect Fire may only rise in tech competitions when all is said and done. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Avatar: Fire and Ash Box Office Prediction

Avatar: Fire and Ash hopes to heat up the holiday box office season on December 19th. Clocking in at nearly 3 hours and 20 minutes, James Cameron’s epic sci-fi threequel arrives 16 years after the record breaking original and 3 years behind Avatar: The Way of Water. The large list of returning cast members doing their motion capture work includes Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldaña, Stephen Lang, Sigourney Weaver, Kate Winslet, CCH Pounder, Giovanni Ribisi, Joel David Moore, Dileep Rao, Matt Gerald, Cliff Curtis, Edie Falco, Brendan Cowell, Jemaine Clement, Britain Dalton, Trinity Jo-Li Bliss, and Jack Champion. Oona Chaplin (daughter of Geraldine and granddaughter of Charlie) is a new addition and said to be a standout in a villainess turn.

Back in 2009, Avatar was seen a big risk for 20th Century Studios. After a $77 million opening, it legged out to (at the time) become the biggest blockbuster in history with $749 million domestically. That number has climbed to $785 million when factoring re-releases. The worldwide total is $2.9 billion. 2022’s The Way of Water actually underperformed in its first frame with $134 million but held fantastically throughout the holidays and beyond. It ended up with $688 million stateside after counting its recent re-release and $2.3 billion across the globe.

Forecasts have Fire coming in lower than Water and that makes sense. There was a 13 year build-up of anticipation for the first sequel. Only a three-year gap separates these. Competitors didn’t shy away from Fire either. While Water was the only wide release in its mid-December date, this will have animated biblical tale David, female catering The Housemaid, and a SpongeBob flick providing alternatives. To be fair, part of Water‘s lack of competition was due to COVID related lack of product.

Fire might fall just under $100 million for starters. Then it will look for a long and prosperous road ahead over the holidays and new year.

Avatar: Fire and Ash opening weekend prediction: $98 million

For my David prediction, click here:

David Box Office Prediction

For my The Housemaid prediction, click here:

The Housemaid Box Office Prediction

For my The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants prediction, click here:

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants Box Office Prediction

M3GAN 2.0 Box Office Prediction

Two and a half years ago, Blumhouse scored a sci-fi horror hit with the demonic doll tale M3GAN and now the inevitable sequel M3GAN 2.0 arrives June 27th. Gerard Johnstone returns to direct along with cast members Allison Williams, Violet McGraw, Brian Jordan Alvarez, Amie Donald (embodying the title character), and Jenna Davis (voicing her). New faces to the franchise include Jenna Davis, Ivanna Sakhno, Aristotle Athari, Timm Sharp, and Jemaine Clement.

In January of 2023, M3GAN rode a wave of buzz to a better than anticipated $30 million premiere and $95 million overall domestic take. Early projections have part 2 (.0) achieving around the same number. It absolutely could, but I have a nagging feeling it may fall short.

I suspect there might be casual viewers who aren’t clamoring to view the AI killer’s next moves. There was a bit of a novelty factor to the original that may not carry over to those same theater goers. Therefore I’m saying low to mid 20s is more likely.

M3GAN 2.0 opening weekend prediction: $21.7 million

For my F1 prediction, click here:

F1 Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Harold and the Purple Crayon

Based on the 1955 kids book by Crockett Johnson, Harold and the Purple Crayon looks to draw in family audiences this weekend. That could be a struggle. Directed by Carlos Sandanha (who’s been heavily involved in the Ice Age franchise), the mix of live-action and animation stars Zachary Levi, Lil Rel Howery, Zooey Deschanel, Alfred Molina, Jemaine Clement, and Tanya Reynolds.

The buzz is muted as kiddos and paying parents have spent their summer cash on Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4. The Rotten Tomatoes score for Crayon is only 36%. The sole Oscar race this would be in contention for is Visual Effects. Despite some of the negative reviews giving the special effects a pass, it is not enough for this to enter the awards mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Harold and the Purple Crayon Box Office Prediction

Nearly 70 years after the Crockett Johnson children’s book was published, the cinematic adaptation of Harold and the Purple Crayon hopes to draw in families on August 2nd. The Columbia release is directed by Carlos Saldanha, best known for his involvement in the Ice Age franchise. The live-action fantasy mixed with animation stars Zachary Levi, Lil Rel Howery, Jemaine Clement, Tanya Reynolds, Alfred Molina, and Zooey Deschanel.

While parents and their kiddos have made Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4 smash hits this summer, I don’t think most are pining for the Purple. That said, it could surprise and over perform if they are looking for air conditioned entertainment. If so, low double digits or low teens is doable. I suspect it might struggle and only hit higher single digits.

Harold and the Purple Crayon opening weekend prediction: $7.6 million

For my Trap prediction, click here:

Trap Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Thelma the Unicorn

Jared and Jerusha Hess, the married couple behind irreverent comedies Napoleon Dynamite and Nacho Libre, bring their sensibilities to the animated comedic musical Thelma the Unicorn. Based on a series of books by Aaron Blabey, the pic is out on Netflix this weekend. Voiceover work comes from Brittany Howard, Will Forte, Jemaine Clement, Edi Patterson, Fred Armisen, Zach Galifianakis, Napoleon himself Jon Heder, and Shondrella Avery.

Critical reaction is mostly complimentary though not lavish in acclaim. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 70%. I’m guessing Netflix won’t make this a priority in their Best Animated Feature campaign. Perhaps it can make the final five if the field is especially weak though I wouldn’t bank on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…