Michael looks to set records for its genre just as its title subject set records in the music business decades ago. Antoine Fuqua’s look at Michael Jackson’s life is the primary wide release this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
As outlined in that post, Michael looks to surpass the $60 million mark that Straight Outta Compton set for best ever in the musical biopic field. I am projecting it will do so with plenty of room to spare in the mid-70s. If it hits that figure, it will certainly stand a good shot at surpassing the $216 million that Bohemian Rhapsody made back in 2018. If and when it achieves a gross beyond that number, it’ll set the high mark overall domestically in the genre. There is some concern that subpar reviews might be a hindrance, but I’m still banking on a wide audience turnout.
The emergence of the King of Pop will cause The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and Project Hail Mary to drop spots after being 1-2 for the last three weekends. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy should see the biggest percentage drop of holdovers are an unimpressive start (more on that below) with The Drama rounding out the top five.
I will note that Mother Mary with Anne Hathaway could pop into the high five with a planned expansion. However, I’ve yet to see a theater count following a limited release on the coasts so I’m not placing it there.
Here’s how I envision it all shaking out:
1. Michael
Predicted Gross: $74 million
2. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
Predicted Gross: $19.9 million
3. Project Hail Mary
Predicted Gross: $15.3 million
4. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
5. The Drama
Predicted Gross: $2.8 million
Box Office Results (April 17-19)
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie ruled the charts once again in its third frame with $36.4 million, in range with my $38.4 million prediction. After three weeks, the animated sequel has generated $356 million as it should blast past $400 million in short order.
Project Hail Mary was runner-up and it continued a remarkable run of meager declines. The sci-fi critical and commercial hit made $20.5 million, ahead of my $17.9 million forecast. The five-week total is rock solid $285 million.
Horror heavy franchise reboot Lee Cronin’s The Mummy stumbled in third with $13.5 million, under my $17.2 million take. With so-so reviews, scary movie fans did not turn out in the way Warner Bros. hoped for. With a C+ Cinemascore grade, look for this to wrap up its theatrical run quickly.
The Drama was fourth with $4.8 million, not matching my $6 million call. The unconventional romance is up to $39 million after three weekend.
Rom com You, Me & Tuscany fell 50% in its sophomore outing to fifth with $3.8 million (I said $4.5 million) for $14 million overall.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…
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