January 2-4 Box Office Predictions

We have no major wide releases to start off the year as holiday holdovers will rule the charts. That should start with Avatar: Fire and Ash for a third consecutive weekend in 1st position. The jockeying for chart placement after that could be interesting.

Seasonal leftovers often see minimal declines during the Christmas corridor and there’s no reason to think that won’t be the case this time around. Some dips should be less severe than others. Anaconda, for example, received a meh B Cinemascore grade. Percentage wise, I suspect it will fall further in its sophomore outing than Marty Supreme (B+ CS) or Song Sung Blue (which received an A grade).

Adult audiences might be keeping up with Supreme and Blue as well as The Housemaid while parents and their kiddos catch up (or take in repeat viewings) of Zootopia 2, David, and SpongeBob. Here’s how I see the top 8 shaking out:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $42 million

2. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

3. Marty Supreme

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

4. The Housemaid

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

5. Anaconda

Predicted Gross: $8 million

6. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

7. David

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

8. Song Sung Blue

Predicted Gross: $6 million

Box Office Results (December 26-28)

Avatar: Fire and Ash scorched the Yuletide box office with a mere 29% decline for $63 million in its sophomore weekend. That just tops my $61.8 million prediction as James Cameron’s third franchise entry climbed to $216 million.

Where I went wrong in my Christmas projections was with animated features. I didn’t give Zootopia 2 enough credit in its fifth go-round as it was second and increased its family audience by 34% to $19.8 million compared to my $13.8 million call. The Disney juggernaut’s haul is $321 million.

Of the three holiday newcomers, I was correct in projecting that Marty Supreme would earn the most in third. Timothée Chalamet had his third holiday hit in a row as the period sports drama made $17.7 million over the traditional Friday to Sunday frame with $27.3 million since Thursday. That’s right in line with my respective estimates of $18.2 million and $27.6 million. It looks like a bright road ahead for the Oscar hopeful.

The Housemaid held sturdy in weekend #2 with $15.3 million. I went with a tad more at $17.3 million as the thriller is up to $46 million.

Meta comedy Anaconda with Paul Rudd and Jack Black rounded out the top five with $14.5 million and $23.5 million when counting Christmas Day. I was close with predictions of $14.2 million and $20.5 million. As mentioned above, its future is a bit murkier.

Continuing the theme of animated misses on my part, Biblical tale David dropped more than I figured with $12.5 million in sixth. I said $19.5 million though the Angel Studios release is doing just fine with $49 million in two weeks.

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants was seventh with $11.1 million, shy of my $14.6 million forecast. The two-week tally is $38 million.

Finally, Song Sung Blue with Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson opened in eighth with $7 million with $11.4 million including Thursday grosses. That’s below my $9.6 million and $13.7 million predictions as it hopes word-of-mouth keeps it afloat for a few weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…