December 26-28 Box Office Predictions

Three Christmas offerings look to brighten up the box office as 2025 draws to a close. We have meta comedy Anaconda with Paul Rudd and Jack Black, the nationwide expansion of Timothée Chalamet’s Oscar contender Marty Supreme, and musical dramedy Song Sung Blue starring Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Anaconda Box Office Prediction

Marty Supreme Box Office Prediction

Song Sung Blue Box Office Prediction

Let’s start with those newcomers in a complicated weekend to project. After a sizzling per theater average in limited release, Marty Supreme could be ready for an impressive expansion. I’ve got it leading the debuting trio with a three-day in the high teens and mid 20s when counting Thursday.

I have Anaconda hitting low teens Friday to Sunday with just over $20 million for the four-day. That would put it in sixth. It is important to remember that holiday holdovers are likely to experience smallish declines since we are in the Christmas corridor.

Song Song Blue could get to double digits over the traditional weekend though I have it barely under for an 8th place start. Word-of-mouth should carry it forward into January as it’s said to be a crowdpleaser.

There’s little doubt that Avatar: Fire and Ash will repeat in first. The big question is what the sophomore frame percentage decline will look like after it opened on the lower end of expectations (more on that below). I’m thinking it decreases about 30%.

Three features in their second go-rounds (David, The Housemaid, The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants) should all see meager eases as audiences catch up on the Yuletide products. Here’s how I envision the top 8 shaking out and please note projection for holdovers are for Friday to Sunday:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $61.8 million

2. David

Predicted Gross: $19.5 million

3. Marty Supreme

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $27.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)

4. The Housemaid

Predicted Gross: $17.3 million

5. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

6. Anaconda

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $20.5 million (Thursday to Sunday)

7. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

8. Song Sung Blue

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.7 million (Thursday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (December 19-21)

James Cameron’s third voyage to Pandora had no trouble ruling the charts, but it couldn’t match my forecast. Avatar: Fire and Ash earned $89.1 million compared to my $98 million take. That’s far less than the $134 million that 2022 predecessor The Way of Water made out of the gate. To be fair, Water had far less competition though this is still an unremarkable start. Let’s see how it plays throughout the season.

Biblical animated tale David from Angel Studios took flight with $22 million, just ahead of my $20.8 million. That’s actually the highest opening for the studio (surpassing Sound of Freedom) and it should fill multiplex pews this coming weekend.

The Housemaid, based on a bestseller and starring Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried, checked in with $19 million. That’s a tad less than my $21.9 million call as a sizable female crowd turned out.

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants underwhelmed compared to other franchise entries with $15.6 million (I said $17.1 million). Family audiences could still make it a priority with kiddos out of school over Christmas.

Finally, Zootopia 2 rounded out the top five with $14.8 million, in line with my $14.3 million prediction. The four-week tally is $283 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…