A24 is looking for Civil War to be their biggest box office breakout so far when it opens this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the newcomer here:
In order to set the all-time opening premiere record for the studio, it needs to eclipse the low teens start Hereditary managed in 2018. That shouldn’t be a problem as I have it posting a high teens beginning. That should be enough for a #1 perch.
That means Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire should slide to second after two weeks atop the charts with a high 40s-low 50s decline. The other sequel with Empire at the end – Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire – might maintain its third place position as I have current #2 Monkey Man experiencing a larger drop. I actually have Monkey sliding three spots. Kung Fu Panda 4 may manage to rise from 5th to 4th as its fall should be less than the sophomore frame of The First Omen, which had a highly disappointing debut (more on that below).
And with that, my forecast for the top 5:
1. Civil War
Predicted Gross: $18 million
2. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Predicted Gross: $15.9 million
3. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million
4. Kung Fu Panda 4
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
5. Monkey Man
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
Box Office Results (April 5-7)
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, as anticipated, had an understandable 61% second weekend plummet to $31.2 million. That’s right on target with my $31.8 million prediction as the impressive two-week total is $134 million.
Dev Patel’s inaugural behind the camera project Monkey Man was runner-up and kicked off on the lower end of expectations. With $10.1 million, it came in well under my $16.6 million take.
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire was third with $9 million in its third haunting. That’s hotter than my $7.6 million projection as it has amassed $88 million.
The First Omen, as mentioned, might have been victim to horror genre overload. Despite mostly heavenly reviews, the demonic prequel was DOA with $8.3 million. I was more generous at $13.3 million.
Kung Fu Panda 4 rounded out the top five at $7.7 million (I said $6.5 million) as the animated sequel is up to $165 million in five weeks and has grossed more than parts 2 and 3 domestically already. It will not, however, match the $215 million that the original took in.
Finally, Dune: Part Two was sixth with $7.4 million (I said $6.7 million) for a six-week bounty of $265 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…
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