The American Film Institute (AFI) revealed their ten best list of 2023 just a day after the NBR did the same (they picked a winner Killers of the Flower Moon and nine others). In the past five years, the AFI and Oscar BP match varies. It’s never been less than 5 (as it was in 2018). It topped out at 8 in 2021 while there were 7 in 2019 and 2022 and 6 in 2020.
Your 10 AFI pictures are American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, May December, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Please note that this is the American Film Institute. Therefore foreign entries aren’t eligible. So you won’t see viable BP hopefuls Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest on this list.
Let’s start with movies that made both AFI and NBR. They are Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things. Those seven titles are mostly looking in solid shape for Oscar inclusion. I can’t imagine more than one of them missing the cut. Past Lives is probably the most vulnerable although its prospects have certainly improved with the precursor love.
Warner Bros should be concerned that The Color Purple missed both cuts. It’s by no means out of the Academy’s BP derby, but it’s looking more shaky than ever. Other notables misses at AFI are Air and Origin. Both of them also missed NBR and appear to be on the outside looking in. The Iron Claw did make NBR in a surprise. A mention here could have really helped, but it didn’t materialize.
On the other hand, AFI’s announcement gives exposure to on the bubble entries like American Fiction, Spider-Man, and especially May December. It seems to be making an impressive late push beyond just its actors and screenplay.
Keep an eye on the blog for all precursor activity as we get closer and closer to Oscar nominations!
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