June 30-July 2 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Update (06/29): I have my estimate for Ruby Gillman from to $10.8M to $7.8M, which puts it in fifth instead of fourth.

Harrison Ford hopes to retire his iconic character with boffo box office returns as Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny whips into theaters. We also have DreamWorks Animation’s Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken seeking success amid serious competition. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be perused here:

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Box Office Prediction

Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken Box Office Prediction

Disney might not have done itself any favors when it screened Destiny last month at the Cannes Film Festival. The critical reaction was rather weak as it sits with 62% on Rotten Tomatoes. The fifth entry in the franchise’s much maligned 2008 predecessor Kingdom of the Crystal Skull managed 77%. I suspect that expectations should be tempered and I have it hitting mid 60s for what would be considered a significantly disappointing beginning.

Slots 2-4 should be quite animated with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Elemental losing around 30-35%. That could put both of them ahead of Ruby. The fact that it’s not based on known IP won’t help and neither will the level of competition. I have it barely topping $10 million for a fourth place start.

No Hard Feelings should round out the top five with a 40% range decline in its sophomore frame.

Here’s how I see it shaking out:

1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Predicted Gross: $65.3 million

2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Gross: $13.4 million

3. Elemental

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million

4. No Hard Feelings

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million

5. Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million

Box Office Results (June 23-25)

Thanks to the disastrous performance of The Flash (we’ll get there shortly), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse swung back into 1st place in week #4. The acclaimed animated sequel took in $19 million. I was right on target with $18.9 million and it’s up to a terrific $316 million with $400 million in its sights.

Pixar’s Elemental, after a poor premiere, was on less shaky ground in its follow-up outing. The A Cinemascore grade probably helped as it dropped a commendable 38% at $18.4 million (I went lower with $16.8 million). That’s the smallest Pixar sophomore frame downslide since Up 14 years ago. The total is $65 million in ten days.

The Flash… wow. After a shockingly low $55 million opening, the DCEU debacle plunged 72% and landed in third with only $15.1 million. I was more generous at $17.5 million. The ten-day take is $87 million and it should be out of the top five in only its third go-round. Embarrassing.

Jennifer Lawrence’s raunchy comedy No Hard Feelings debuted in fourth with $15 million, exceeding my call of $11.7 million. For its genre, that’s a pretty solid haul as comedies have struggled in recent years. It should manage to hold up decently in subsequent weekends.

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts rounded out the top five with $11.7 million, rising above my $9.3 million projection. The three-week gross is $123 million.

Wes Anderson’s Asteroid City expanded nationwide and nabbed the highest per theater average on the chart. The star-studded tale made an impressive $9 million and went above my $7.6 million guesstimate. It’s at $10.2 million when factoring its limited release dollars from the previous weekend.

Finally, The Little Mermaid was seventh with $8.5 million (I said $7 million) to bring its earnings to $270 million in five weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…