Jumanji: The Next Level Box Office Prediction

One of the biggest box office successes of 2017 was that of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, the reboot of the 1995 Robin Williams family adventure. Considered to be a bit of a gamble at the time, Jungle ended up developing amazing legs at multiplexes and grossing just over $400 million domestically. In doing so, it edged out Spider-Man as Sony’s highest grossing stateside effort.

The inevitable sequel finds Dwayne Johnson, Kevin Hart, Jack Black, Karen Gillan, Nick Jonas, Alex Wolff, Morgan Turner, Se’Darious Blain, and Madison Iseman reprising their roles. Newcomers to the game include Danny DeVito, Danny Glover, and Awkwafina. Jake Kasdan returns to the director’s chair.

Before Jungle went on its moneymaking run, it opened at #2 to the sophomore frame of Star Wars: The Last Jedi. It opened over the long Christmas frame two years ago on a Wednesday, earning $36 million over the traditional Friday to Sunday portion with a six-day holiday haul of nearly $72 million.

In 2019, The Next Level gets the jump on Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker by a week. And while this hopes to develop minor week to week drops like its predecessor, the sequel looks to make more than mid to high 30s out of the gate for the regular weekend.

Some estimates put this at around $40 million while others have it inching towards $50 million or possibly a bit more. I’ll say a gross in the high 40s is my range as this hopes for positive word-of-mouth and smooth sailing ahead like Jungle before it.

Jumanji: The Next Level opening weekend prediction: $48.7 million

For my Black Christmas prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/12/05/black-christmas-box-office-prediction/

For my Richard Jewell prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/12/06/richard-jewell-box-office-prediction/

December 6-8 Box Office Predictions

Hollywood had reason to be thankful over the holiday weekend as the box office saw a much needed rebound. More importantly, two original films (that’s right – not based on comics or bestsellers) aimed at adults exceeded expectations.

For this first full weekend of December, the studios are holding back as they wait closer to Christmas to unleash their blockbusters like Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and Jumanji: The Next Level. The only new wide release is the animated Playmobil: The Movie and you can peruse my prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/11/27/playmobil-the-movie-box-office-prediction/

I don’t expect much from Playmobil, which has generated scant buzz and has Frozen II in its third frame as direct competition. My $2.8 million estimate leaves it outside of the top five.

There is also the expansion of the Mark Ruffalo drama Dark Waters, which had a so-so limited release this past weekend. My $3.7 million projection also leaves it beyond the high five.

That top five should remain the same pictures with perhaps some movement in the numbers placement. Frozen II may lose a bit more than half its Thanksgiving audience and it should have zero trouble getting a three-peat.

I expect all other titles to drop in the high 30s to mid 40s with the smallest drops going to Knives Out after its terrific debut and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Here’s how I have it all playing out:

1. Frozen II

Predicted Gross: $41.3 million

2. Knives Out

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

3. Ford v Ferrari

Predicted Gross: $7.5 million

4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

5. Queen & Slim

Predicted Gross: $6.7 million

Box Office Results (November 29-December 1)

As mentioned, it was a bountiful Turkey Day weekend for Tinsel Town as Frozen II dominated the charts in its sophomore frame with $85.9 million, just over my $84.4 million take. The Disney sequel has amassed a cool $288 million thus far.

Rian Johnson’s acclaimed murder mystery Knives Out got off to a sharp start with $26.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $41.4 million since its Wednesday beginning. Those figures easily eclipse my respective predictions of $18.5 million and $27.7 million.

Ford v Ferrari was third with $13.1 million, in line with my $12.8 million estimate for $81 million total.

Queen & Slim was the other impressive debut as the romantic crime drama grossed $11.8 million for the traditional weekend and $16 million since Wednesday. That’s well over my projections of $6.9 million and $10.1 million.

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood rounded out the top five with $11.7 million (I said $11 million) for a two-week tally of $34 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…