If there’s a theme to this first full June weekend at the box office, it might be sequels not matching up to what’s come before. The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Dark Phoenix are the two newbies hitting screens and you can peruse my detailed predictions for each of them here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/29/the-secret-life-of-pets-2-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/30/dark-phoenix-box-office-prediction/
The original Pets got off to an animated start three summers ago with $104 million. Part 2 is not expected to match it and I’m going with a mid 60s beginning. It should still face no issues topping the charts as the prospects for Dark Phoenix look dim.
It’s the final entry in the current iteration of the X-Men Universe and buzz appears lackluster (especially after the ho-hum reaction to 2016’s X–Men: Apocalypse). My mid 40s take gives it the worst premiere of any X title thus far.
As for holdovers, Godzilla: King of the Monsters was a big disappointment and I anticipate a sophomore decline in the mid 50s range. That could drop it to fourth place with Aladdin in third and Rocketman rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I have the top 5 panning out:
1. The Secret Life of Pets 2
Predicted Gross: $65.2 million
2. Dark Phoenix
Predicted Gross: $45.3 million
3. Aladdin
Predicted Gross: $26.5 million
4. Godzilla: King of the Monsters
Predicted Gross: $16.9 million
5. Rocketman
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million
Box Office Results (May 31–June 2)
As mentioned, Godzilla: King of the Monsters landed with a thud with $47.7 million – well below my $58.7 million projection. The reported $200 million dollar production made just over half of what 2014’s Godzilla ($91 million) took in for its start. Additionally it couldn’t reach the heights of 2017’s Kong: Skull Island and its $61 million rollout. The two creatures will face each other next spring in Godzilla vs. Kong.
Aladdin was second with $42.8 million in weekend #2 and held up a bit better than my $40.3 million estimate. The Disney live-action hit has amassed $185 million total.
The Elton John biopic Rocketman had a decent start in third with $25.7 million. I thought it would fly higher at $36.1 million. It’s still a fine opening for an R rated counter programming offering in blockbuster season, though it is just half of what Bohemian Rhapsody accomplished a few short months ago.
Blumhouse horror pic Ma with Octavia Spencer was fourth and landed in line with expectations at $18 million (I said $17.2 million). Considering its tiny $5 million price tag, it’s yet another profitable success for the studio.
John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum was fifth with $11 million (I went with $12.7 million) as it brought its earnings to $125 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…
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