May 24-27 Box Office Predictions

It’s Memorial Day at the box office with Disney looking to dominate the four-day holiday weekend with their live-action rendering of Aladdin starring Will Smith. We also have the superhero horror flick Brightburn and critically acclaimed high school comedy Booksmart. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/14/aladdin-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/15/brightburn-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/17/booksmart-box-office-prediction/

There’s little doubt that the Fresh Prince’s genie will open at #1. How much it makes is very much in question. My mid 70s forecast is toward the lower end of estimates. While it’s always risky to underestimate the vaunted Mouse Factory marketing machine, they’ve already had one under performer weeks ago with Dumbo and reaction to this particular remake seems mixed.

Slots 2-4 are likely to be held by holdovers and that starts with John Wick: Chapter 3Parabellum after its dynamite debut (more on that below). Its gross is probably a bit front loaded, so a dip over 50% wouldn’t be surprising.

On the other hand, Avengers: Endgame should follow the path of other MCU titles that premiered in late April or early May with a minor drop in the 20s. I have Pokemon Detective Pikachu slated for a mid 30s subtraction.

As for the newcomers, both have breakout potential but I’m hesitant to pull the trigger on either exceeding expectations. Brightburn should fare a bit better than Booksmart, if for no other reason than its higher screen count.

And with that, a top 6 take on my Friday to Monday predictions:

1. Aladdin

Predicted Gross: $74.8 million

2. John Wick: Chapter 3Parabellum

Predicted Gross: $27 million

3. Avengers: Endgame

Predicted Gross: $22.5 million

4. Pokemon Detective Pikachu

Predicted Gross: $16.4 million

5. Brightburn

Predicted Gross: $10.7 million

6. Booksmart

Predicted Gross: $8.6 million

Box Office Results (May 1719)

John Wick: Chapter 3Parabellum sped to a terrific start and zoomed past most projections, including mine. The Keanu Reeves sequel made $56.8 million compared to my $45.8 million estimate. That sets the franchise record by over $25 million and is good for Mr. Reeves second largest opening ever behind The Matrix Reloaded.

Avengers: Endgame dropped to second after three weeks on top with $29.9 million, in line with my $28.5 million prediction. The massive tally is at $771 million.

In its sophomore outing, Pokemon Detective Pikachu was third with $25.1 million. I was right there at $25.2 million as it approaches the century mark with $94 million.

A Dog’s Journey flopped with just $8 million in fourth compared to my $11.8 million projection. That’s less than half of what predecessor A Dog’s Purpose achieved. Woof.

The Hustle rounded out the top five with $6.1 million (I said $7.1 million) for $23 million overall.

Finally, YA romance The Sun Is Also a Star had a dim start in eighth with just $2.5 million. I went higher at $5.5 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

May 17-19 Box Office Predictions

Blogger’s Note (05/15): My Parabellum prediction has risen from $37.8 million to $45.8 million

The three-week reign of Avengers: Endgame atop the charts should end this weekend at the hands of Keanu Reeves as his action threequel John Wick: Chapter 3Parabellum is unveiled. We also have canine sequel A Dog’s Journey and YA romance The Sun Is Also a Star out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/07/john-wick-chapter-3-parabellum-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/10/a-dogs-journey-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/10/the-sun-is-also-a-star-box-office-prediction/

Mr. Wick appears poised for a healthy start in first. The 2014 original made $14 million out of the gate but became a cult favorite shortly thereafter. Its 2017 follow-up brought in $30 million. Some have Parabellum in the mid 40s range, but I’m thinking high 30s is more probable. That should still be more than enough to ensure it the #1 slot.

A mid 50s dip should drop Endgame to second with Pokemon Detective Pikachu in third. I have A Dog’s Journey tapped for just under teens (not matching the $18 million earned by predecessor A Dog’s Purpose).

My $5.5 million forecast for The Sun Is Also a Star likely leaves it in sixth with The Hustle rounding out the top five in its sophomore frame.

Here’s how I have the weekend playing out:

1. John Wick: Chapter 3Parabellum

Predicted Gross: $45.8 million

2. Avengers: Endgame

Predicted Gross: $28.5 million

3. Pokemon Detective Pikachu

Predicted Gross: $25.2 million

4. A Dog’s Journey

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million

5. The Hustle

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million

Box Office Results (May 1012)

It was a three-peat for the gargantuan superhero squad as Avengers: Endgame took in $63.2 million (below my $71.2 million take). The film has amassed a jaw-dropping $723 million total. That’s the fourth heftiest third weekend in box office history and it’s climbed to third all-time domestically in overall gross, with Avatar well in its sights.

Pokemon Detective Pikachu got a silver medal with a decent $54.3 million, under my $64.8 million projection. The Ryan Reynolds voiced pic fell within the range of expectations, albeit on the lower end.

The Hustle with Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson was third and opened right in line with estimates at $13 million (I said $13.4 million). A weak B- CinemaScore grade indicates audiences weren’t impressed.

Fourth place belonged to The Intruder as it had a nice hold in weekend #2. I incorrectly had it outside the top five, but it made $7.1 million for a two-week haul of $21 million.

Long Shot was in the five spot with $6.2 million (I said $5.5 million) and $19 million total.

The Diane Keaton cheerleading comedy Poms was a dud in sixth with just $5.3 million. I reached higher at $8.7 million.

Tolkien was another disappointment in ninth with a measly $2.2 million. I went with $3.1 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (05/15): My estimate has risen from $37.8 million to $45.8 million

Keanu Reeves is back in theaters next weekend as America’s favorite dog loving hitman when John Wick: Chapter 3Parabellum debuts. The action thriller hopes to build upon the momentum of 2017’s highly successful sequel. Chad Stahelski returns as director with familiar series faces including Laurence Fishburne, Lance Reddick, Ian McShane, and John Leguizamo. New stars in our third edition include Halle Berry, Mark Dacascos, Asia Kate Dillon, and Anjelica Huston.

Mr. Reeves found himself in an unexpected new franchise five years ago when John Wick opened to $14 million with a $43 million overall domestic gross. While that might not seem like enough to automatically warrant a follow-up, the pic achieved critical kudos and cult status when it arrived on demand. Three years later, Chapter 2 made $30 million for its start and $92 million total.

Parabellum has a solid shot at topping the opening weekend of its predecessor, which also garnered glowing reviews. I’ll say mid to high 30s is where this ends up.

John Wick: Chapter 3Parabellum opening weekend prediction: $45.8 million

For my A Dog’s Journey prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/10/a-dogs-journey-box-office-prediction/

For my The Sun Is Also a Star prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/10/the-sun-is-also-a-star-box-office-prediction/