After a sizzling debut over the long Memorial Day weekend, Aladdin could slip to third as two heavy hitters join the fray: monster sequel Godzilla: King of the Monsters and critically lauded Elton John biopic Rocketman. We also have low budget Blumhouse horror pic Ma with Octavia Spencer that has breakout potential. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of the newcomers here:
https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/23/godzilla-king-of-the-monsters-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/23/rocketman-box-office-prediction/
https://toddmthatcher.com/2019/05/24/ma-box-office-prediction/
Godzilla should manage to stomp the competition, but I do have it coming in lower than its 2014 predecessor and just under what 2017’s Kong: Skull Island achieved. As for Rocketman, there’s Oscar nod buzz for star Taron Egerton and the genre heat from last fall’s smash Bohemian Rhapsody. I have it debuting with about $15 million less than the Queen flick, but that still means mid 30s.
As for Ma, I have it over tripling its puny $5 million budget for fourth place. Aladdin may experience a mid 50s dip after ruling the holiday and John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum should round out the top five.
And with that, my forecast for the weekend:
1. Godzilla: King of the Monsters
Predicted Gross: $58.7 million
2. Aladdin
Predicted Gross: $40.3 million
3. Rocketman
Predicted Gross: $36.1 million
4. Ma
Predicted Gross: $17.2 million
5. John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
Box Office Results (May 24–27)
Despite a poorly received first trailer and questions about its potency with audiences, Disney’s Aladdin exceeded all expectations and granted the studio’s money-making wishes with $116.8 million. That blew away my $74.8 million estimate.
John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum dropped to second with $30.9 million over the four-day, topping my $27 million take. The Keanu Reeves action sequel is already at $107 million in two weeks and has the set the franchise record domestically.
Avengers: Endgame was third with $22 million (I said $22.5 million), hitting an astonishing $803 million.
Pokemon: Detective Pikachu was fourth with $17.2 million compared to my $16.4 million projection and $120 million thus far.
All newbies without a blue genie struggled. Horror superhero tale Brightburn was fifth with $9.6 million. I was right on target at $9.7 million. Acclaimed high school comedy Booksmart was sixth with $8.7 million. Again, I was on the money with an $8.6 million prediction.
And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…
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