Looking to tickle the funny bones of audiences over the long holiday weekend, Father Figures debuts next Friday. The pic casts Owen Wilson and Ed Helms as brothers searching for their biological pops after mom Glenn Close informs them it could be several men. J.K. Simmons, Christopher Walken, Ving Rhames, and Terry Bradshaw (playing himself) are among them. Katt Williams, June Squibb, and Harry Shearer are included in the supporting cast with Lawrence Sher directing.
Originally titled Bastards, the comedy was originally slated by Warner Bros. for a November 2016 opening before a delay until January 2017 and finally this Christmastime release. That doesn’t exactly inspire confidence with the multiple push backs.
Figures has plenty of competition and of the five wide releases premiering over the weekend, it will likely place fifth among them. Its best hope would be to replicate what Why Him? (last year’s Christmas entry in the genre) did with $15.5 million over the four-day frame.
That could be wishful thinking. I’ll predict this only reaches high single digits to low double digits for its roll out.
Father Figures opening weekend prediction: $8.6 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle prediction, click here:
John Hamburg’s WhyHim? borrows a bit from the MeettheParents formula and no wonder because it was Hamburg who wrote that picture. He also cowrote that blockbuster’s two sequels, which dwindled in quality with each entry. Him? keeps the downward spiral going. That’s a shame because Mr. Hamburg’s two previous efforts behind the camera, AlongCamePolly and ILoveYou, Man, were both pretty decent. This one never finds its rhythm.
Bryan Cranston is middle class Michigan man Ned Fleming, who travels with his wife (Megan Mullaly) and teenage son (Griffin Gluck) to visit college age daughter Stephanie (Zoey Deutch) over the Christmas holiday. She’s got a new serious boyfriend in the form of Laird Mayhew (James Franco). He’s a super eccentric and ultra foul-mouthed tech gazillionaire with attachment issues. Naturally (and totally understandably), Ned doesn’t approve of the situation.
WhyHim? is a cartoon with a hard R rating. There’s drug humor, toilet gags, and lots of sex talk. It’s nothing we haven’t seen before save for a gag involving a moose encased in urine (first time writing that sentence!). Franco is a performer that can be solid and also grating and the latter applies here. Cranston is a fantastic actor saddled with the straight man role. Part of the problem is I think we’re supposed to sympathize with Laird, but he’s such a bizarrely creepy dude that we never really do. The rare laughs come from supporting players. Keegan-Michael Key has a moment or two as Laird’s sidekick, as does Kaley Cuoco doing voiceover work as a Siri like assistant who watches all.
Overall, however, this is just a substandard example of a storyline we’ve seen done better… and from the same guy no less.
Well, folks, it’s the third four-day holiday box office frame in four weekends as MLK Day is Monday and there’s a total of six (yes six) pictures debuting or rolling out in wide release. They are: the Peter Berg directed Boston Marathon dramatic thriller Patriots Day, Ben Affleck’s gangster pic Live by Night, Jamie Foxx action flick Sleepless, inexplicably huge budget and long delayed family pic Monster Trucks, horror entry The Bye Bye Man, and Martin Scorsese’s historical epic Silence. You can experience my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:
With this infusion of new product invading the marketplace, it could create a lot of intrigue as to what comes out on top. The four-day frame should mean rather small drops for returnees (Underworld could be the exception) and in some cases, we could see increases.
Hidden Figures got off to a terrific start in wide release. With an A+ Cinemascore grade and rapturous word of mouth, I see a slight increase for it that might be enough to keep it #1, ever so slightly ahead of Patriots Day. I believe that it will have the highest debut of the newbies.
My estimates put Live by Night in sixth with a disappointing debut with Sing and Rogue One in third and fourth. Other newcomers (Sleepless, Trucks, Bye Bye) will be in the 7-8-9 spots as I believe La La Land will post a fifth place showing. This is due to its huge success at the Golden Globes and an expected significant increase in screens next weekend.
Finally, Silence is only debuting on 750 screens and I expect it to fall outside of the top ten.
And with that, my top ten predictions for the long and bustling weekend:
1. Hidden Figures
Predicted Gross: $24.1 million (representing an increase of 6%)
2. Patriots Day
Predicted Gross: $23.6 million
3. Sing
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million (representing a drop of 21%)
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million (representing a drop of 27%)
5. La La Land
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million (representing an increase of 36%)
6. LivebyNight
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
7. Sleepless
Predicted Gross: $10.3 million
8. Monster Trucks
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million
9. The Bye Bye Man
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
10. Underworld: Blood Wars
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million (representing a drop of 51%)
Box Office Results (January 6-8)
In a rather surprising result, Hidden Figures dislodged Rogue One from the top spot with a better than expected $22.8 million. This tops my $19.3M projection. As mentioned, its encouraging audience reaction bodes well for this weekend and beyond.
Rogue One slipped to second after three weeks on top with $22 million, under my $28.2M estimate for a total of $477M.
Sing was third with $20.7 million (under my $25.3M prediction) for a $214 overall tally.
Underworld: Blood Wars, the first new 2017 wide release, posted lackluster results in fourth with just $13.6 million (I was higher at $17.6M). All four previous franchise entries had debuted to over $20M.
La La Land rounded out the top five with $10.1 million (I said $12.8M) to bring its gross to $51M.
The rest of the top ten were all holdovers and were as follows:
6. Passengers: $8.8 million ($80M total). My prediction: $9 million
7. Why Him?: $6.9 million ($48M total). My prediction: $6 million
8. Moana: $6.3 million ($225M total). My prediction: $6.6 million.
9. Fences: $4.8 million ($40M total). My prediction: $6.7 million.
10. Assassin’s Creed: $4.1 million ($49M total). My prediction: $4.2M.
Finally, the critically acclaimed A Monster Calls was ignored by audiences and made just $2 million out of the gate, lower than my $3.4M forecast.
The first full weekend of the new year kicks off with three pictures opening wide: Oscar hopeful HiddenFigures, sci-fi franchise entry Underworld: BloodWars, and sci-fi drama AMonsterCalls. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on that trio of newcomers here:
Even with the infusion of fresh product, I do not anticipate the two-week old first and second place combo of RogueOne and Sing to change. That said, I do believe Figures stands the best chance at outperforming my estimate.
As for BloodWars, I expect it may be the first Underworld pic of the five to open under $20 million and that puts it in fourth.
LaLaLand is getting a large theater expansion and should hit the top five with Passengers in sixth. The rest of the top ten could be rather tightly clustered with Monster likelyoutsideofthetopten. And with that, a top ten predictions for the weekend:
1. RogueOne: AStarWarsStory
Predicted Gross: $28.2 million
2. Sing
Predicted Gross: $25.3 million
3. HiddenFigures
Predicted Gross: $19.3 million
4. Underworld: BloodWars
Predicted Gross: $17.6 million
5. La La Land
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
6. Passengers
Predicted Gross: $9 million
7. Fences
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
8. Moana
Predicted Gross: $6.6 million
9. WhyHim?
Predicted Gross: $6 million
10. Assassin’s Creed
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million
Box Office Results (December 30-January 2)
The four-day New Years weekend gave RogueOne its third weekend atop the charts, though it didn’t quite match my expectations. The spin-off took in $65.5 million (under my generous $79.9M forecast) for a still eye-popping $440M total.
Sing was second with $57.2 million, in line with my $56.6M projection for a two-week $180M take.
Passengers was third at $21 million, above my $18.3M prediction for a $66M overall gross.
Moana made $15.1 million for fourth place (higher than my $12.7M prognosis). It’s made $214M.
Rounding out the top five was WhyHim? with $13.1 million, under my $16.1M estimate for a $37M tally.
In sixth, Fences also made $13.1 million (above my $9.8M prediction) for a $32M total.
Oscar favorite LaLaLand expanded its theater count and earned a scorching $12.5 million for seventh (I said $10M). It’s danced to $37M thus far.
Eighth place: Assassin’sCreed with $11.3 million, in range with my $12.2M take for a $42M gross.
The pictures in ninth and tenth were ones I incorrectly had outside my predicted top 10. FantasticBeastsandWheretoFindThem made $5.6 million (overall earnings: $225M) and ManchesterbytheSea took in $5.4 million ($29M total).
CollateralBeauty was 11th with $5.4 million (I said $5.2M) for a weak $27M gross. OfficeChristmasParty was 12th with $4.5 million (I was a touch higher at $5.8M) for a total of $52M.
Well, it’s both the final box office weekend of 2016 and first one of 2017 and that means four-day holiday estimates once again. There are no new titles premiering over the New Years frame as Christmas holdovers look to dominate the charts.
During the last two years where we saw New Years Day fall on a Sunday (2005, 2011), returning films routinely saw increases compared to the three-day portion of the Christmas weekend. While many may not match the four-day takes of the previous weekend, I wouldn’t look for any precipitous drops for anything.
Bottom line – this weekend should look a whole lot like the one that just concluded with RogueOne and Sing easily in the one and two spots, some Oscar hopefuls continuing their stellar runs, and some Christmas disappointments (more on that below) hoping for a soft cushion in their sophomore frames.
With that, we’ll do a top 10 Estimates for the Friday to Monday weekend ahead:
1. RogueOne: AStarWarsStory
Predicted Gross: $79.9 million
2. Sing
Predicted Gross: $56.6 million
3. Passengers
Predicted Gross: $18.3 million
4. WhyHim?
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million
5. Moana
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
6. Assassin’sCreed
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million
7. LaLaLand
Predicted Gross: $10 million
8. Fences
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
9. OfficeChristmasParty
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
10. CollateralBeauty
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
BoxOfficeResults (December23–26)
As expected, RogueOne ruled the holiday box office, bringing in $96.1 million over the Friday to Monday Christmas weekend. This is just over my $92.8M prediction to bring its total to a merry $318 million.
Illumination Entertainment’s animated Sing posted a strong second place debut to the tune of $55.8 million from Friday to Monday and $75.5 million since its Wednesday opening (in line with my respective estimates of $55.3M and $74.1M).
The news was not quite as jolly for the Jennifer Lawrence/Chris Pratt sci-fi thriller Passengers. Met with generally mediocre reviews, the pic made $30 million since its Wednesday premiere and $22.6 million over the weekend. My prognoses were higher at $42M and $31.4M.
James Franco/Bryan Cranston comedy WhyHim? had a decent opening with $15.5 million, a bit above my $13.2M prediction. It could enjoy a nice hold this weekend.
Video game adaptation Assassin’sCreed posted unimpressive results with $14.8 million from Friday to Monday and $22.2 million since Wednesday, not reaching my predictions of $19.8M and $28.1M.
Disney’s Moana earned $12.5 million (compared to my $10.1M forecast) for a $185 million haul.
Denzel Washington’s Fences took in a healthy $11.6 million (I was lower at $8.6M) in just two days as it opened on Christmas.
Another strong Oscar hopeful, LaLaLand, also expanded on the holiday and brought in $9.2 million. I was lower again with a $7.5M estimate.
OfficeChristmasParty made $7 million (I said $6.2M) to bring its gross to $44M.
Finally, Will Smith flop CollateralBeauty rounded out the top ten with $6.3 million (I said $5.3M) for an underwhelming tally of $17M.
**On a personal note and as a movie lover, I do want to mention the sad news of the day and simply say Rest In Peace to the great and iconic Carrie Fisher.
It’s Christmas weekend at the box office and it’s expected to be a bustling one as five new pictures open in wide release, an Oscar front runner continues to expand, and the second weekend of Rogue One is upon us.
The five newbies are: animated musical Sing, Jennifer Lawrence/Chris Pratt sci fi romantic thriller Passengers, video game adaptation Assassin’s Creed with Michael Fassbender, James Franco/Bryan Cranston comedy Why Him?, and Denzel Washington family drama Fences. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them right here:
When it comes to crunching the numbers for the fresh product, one must consider the release dates of each. Sing, Passengers, and Assassin’s Creed all debut this Wednesday. Why Him? will be out Friday. Fences won’t be out until Christmas Day on Sunday, so it’s only two days of grosses to factor in for it.
As I see it, Sing should rather easily be tops among the newbies with Passengers in third. I do wonder if the mostly negative reviews for the J. Law title could hinder it, but I’m still going with a low 40s four-day. I have Creed and Why Him? rounding out the top five with Fences managing a seventh place showing for its 48 hour haul.
As for the second weekend of Rogue One, a 40% dip would put it in the low 90s and that would be good for the 4th largest second weekend of all time. Last year’s record setter The Force Awakens fell just 39% in its sophomore frame (and that was just 3 day gross) for a $149M gross.
As for other holdovers, the holiday weekend typically sees either small drops (and sometimes slight increases) and that’s reflected in my estimates. Additionally, La La Land (currently on 200 screens) is expected to triple its theater count and it should experience a more significant bump.
And with that- I’m doing a top ten predictions for this crazy four-day weekend:
1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Predicted Gross: $92.8 million (representing a 40% drop)
2. Sing
Predicted Gross: $55.3 million (Friday to Monday), $74.1 million (Wednesday to Monday)
3. Passengers
Predicted Gross: $31.4 million (Friday to Monday), $42 million (Wednesday to Monday)
4. Assassin’s Creed
Predicted Gross: $19.8 million (Friday to Monday), $28.1 million (Wednesday to Monday)
5. Why Him?
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
6. Moana
Predicted Gross: $10.1 million (representing a drop of 21%)
7. Fences
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million (Sunday-Monday)
8. La La Land
Predicted Gross: $7.5 million
9. Office Christmas Party
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 28%)
10. Collateral Beauty
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million (representing a drop of 25%)
Box Office Results (December 16-18)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story blasted off with an impressive $155 million, good for the 12th largest domestic debut of all time. While it didn’t match my generous $168.3M projection, this is still a fine start for the first spin-off in the heralded franchise and its A Cinemascore grade bodes well for its second weekend and beyond.
Another Disney title – their animated hit Moana – was second with $12.7 million (above my $9M estimate) for a $162M total.
Office Christmas Party was third in its second weekend with $8.5 million, ahead of my $7.1M forecast for a tally of $31M.
The news was not so festive for Will Smith as his critically drubbed Collateral Beauty gave the star his worst wide opening of his career. It made just $7.1 million, well under my $11.4M prediction. I’ve got it experiencing a meager decline over Christmas weekend, but any way you look at it, this is a huge disappointment.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them was fourth with $5 million (in line with my $4.8M take) for a $207M haul.
Two Oscar contenders held the six and seven spots. Manchester by the Sea earned $4.2 million in its expansion (I was close with $4.4M) for a total of just over $14M. The aforementioned La La Land continued its sizzling per screen averages with $4.1 million (I said $4.2M) to put its take at just over $5M. As mentioned, it should continue to impress over the holidays and awards season.
And that does it for now, folks! Wishing you a Merry Christmas this weekend and and hopefully a joyous time at the movies…
Audiences looking for laughs over the holidays have an option with WhyHim?, the latest comedy from John Hamburg, director of AlongCamePolly and ILoveYou, Man. The pic casts James Franco as an eccentric tech billionaire who doesn’t meet the approval of his fiancée’s pop Bryan Cranston. Zoey Deutch, Megan Mullaly, Griffin Gluck, and Keegan-Michael Key costar.
Him opens on Friday the 23rd, unlike three other big releases that debut on Wednesday, so my estimate is a simple four-day here. This could benefit from being the only new comedy out on a packed Christmas weekend (OfficeChristmasParty will be in its third weekend).
That said, reviews have been rather weak as it stands at 42% on Rotten Tomatoes. Last year, Daddy’sHome cleaned up on the festive weekend with nearly $40 million out of the gate. Yet that one had the more bankable Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg. WhyHim? might be lucky to do a bit over a third of that for its start.
WhyHim? opening weekend prediction: $13.2 million (Friday to Monday)
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