Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard (rolls right off the tongue… doesn’t it?) hits multiplexes on Wednesday, June 16th. The comedic action sequel brings back Ryan Reynolds, Samuel L. Jackson, and Salma Hayek with Frank Grillo, Richard E. Grant, Tom Hopper, Antonio Banderas, and Morgan Freeman joining the party. Patrick Hughes return to direct.
Originally slated to debut in August 2020 before its COVID delay, this follows up on the 2017 original which was a solid late summer performer. It opened to $21 million nearly four years ago with an eventual $75 million domestic take. At that time, Mr. Reynolds was hot off 2016’s Deadpool and that may have contributed to Bodyguard‘s success.
I genuinely wonder if audiences are clamoring for this to be a franchise and lean toward meh. The original achieved a B+ Cinemascore (which is decent but not great) and Reynolds doesn’t have the benefit of coming off a smash. Even with the expanded five-day rollout, I’m not even sure it reaches $20M+.
Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard opening weekend prediction: $12.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $17.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Had The Hitman’s Bodyguard been made in the mid to late 1990s, it may well have involved three of the performers present. We have Samuel L. Jackson as one of the co-leads. There’s Gary Oldman overacting his tail off as the main baddie. And Salma Hayek adds a sassy flavor as a love interest. There would be no Ryan Reynolds, who would have been in his late teens or early 20s at the time. Instead, maybe Bruce Willis or Kurt Russell could have filled his role.
As such, the three actors mentioned are a bit older and filling parts we’ve seen them cast in before. Bodyguard is joyfully R rated, filled with action genre familiarities, and (to use a reviewer’s cliche) it hits the mark sporadically. Reynolds is Michael Bryce, former CIA officer and triple A rated executive protection officer. What is exactly gives one the distinction of being triple A rated in this particular field? None of the other character seem to know, but he seems supremely confident in the designation. Essentially, he’s good at not letting the people he protects (some of whom are nefarious types) die.
His unblemished record is thwarted early here and his career goes down the tubes. Bryce gets back in the game a couple years later when notorious hitman Darius Kincaid (Jackson) needs a protector. He’s been imprisoned for some time and he’s a key government witness against a foreign dictator (Oldman) for his many crimes. There’s a whole army of the dictator’s henchmen who wish to keep Kincaid from the witness stand.
Much of the action here takes place in Amsterdam as Bryce tries to get his subject to The Hague to testify. Our two leads have a checkered history together and getting them to work together doesn’t come easily. Bryce believes his protection methods work best (don’t kill anyone) while Kincaid feels differently (kill everyone). The comedic banter between Reynolds and Jackson works well much of the time as they try to one up each other in their work.
Both principal’s have ladies in their lives. Elodie Yung is Bryce’s ex who he still can’t let go of. Hayek is Kincaid’s wife, apparently jailed simply due to her association with her hubby. Her character rivals his in their extreme use of the word mother****er, which had basically become Jackson’s catchphrase in countless pictures.
Expendables 3 director Patrick Hughes keeps Bodyguard charging along with action set pieces that are competent and pretty much instantly forgettable. We get some backstory of the pair and how they met their women. This is done so in flashback sequences that are a bit superfluous and complete with ironically cliched song choices. For someone who’s played some very memorable villains, Oldman’s screen time is too limited to make much impact.
The stars of The Hitman’s Bodyguard certainly keep it watchable and there’s a select few genuinely funny moments splattered around the cartoonish mayhem. On the other hand, Mr. Reynolds and Mr. Jackson have appeared in violent flicks before that you’ll remember in the morning. That doesn’t quite hold true here.
The two-week reign of Pennywise atop the box office looks to float away this weekend as three new pictures debut: Matthew Vaughn’s action/comedy sequel Kingsman: The Golden Circle, animated action/comedy spin-off The Lego Ninjago Movie, and supernatural horror flick Friend Request. You can view my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
There is some question as to whether Kingsman or Ninjago take the top spot. I’m estimating the former will outdo the latter by approximately $5 million.
The continued amazing grosses of It could mean that three movies will top $30 million this weekend, but that demented clown should be right on the edge of that gross with an anticipated drop of around 50%.
American Assassin should slip to fourth place and I have Friend Request managing to round out the top five, albeit with a muted debut.
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:
1. Kingsman: The Golden Circle
Predicted Gross: $43.6 million
2. The Lego Ninjago Movie
Predicted Gross: $38.6 million
3. It
Predicted Gross: $29.8 million (representing a drop of 50%)
4. American Assassin
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)
5. Friend Request
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
Box Office Results (September 15-17)
It continued its startling run after its record breaking opening with $60.1 million in its second weekend, in line with my $59M forecast. The juggernaut has amassed an incredible $218 million in its ten days of existence.
AmericanAssassin with Dylan O’Brien and Michael Keaton was runner-up with a respectable $14.8 million, topping my $13.2M prediction. That might not be enough to justify a franchise, but you never know.
Darren Aronofsky’s instantly controversial mother! with Jennifer Lawrence sputtered in third with $7.5 million. I was considerably higher with a $14.7M projection. While critics were mostly kind (68% on Rotten Tomatoes), audiences rendered their verdict with both their money and CinemaScore grade (an F, which is practically unprecedented). Expect mother! to take a massive tumble this coming weekend as well with the toxic word-of-mouth.
Reese Witherspoon’s Home Again held up decently in its sophomore weekend at #4 with $5.1 million compared to my $4.5M estimate. The rom com has grossed nearly $17 million so thus far.
TheHitman’sBodyguard was fifth with $3.5 million (I said $2.6M) to bring its total to $70 million.
And that does it for now, ladies and gents! Until next time…
Two new movies debut wide this weekend as It should continue its incredible run on top in its second weekend. The newbies are the Jennifer Lawrence horror thriller mother! and Dylan O’Brien/Michael Keaton CIA action flick American Assassin. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I’m anticipating a close race for second between the newcomers with mother! just edging out Assassin. I look for both to post numbers in the low to mid teens.
And… now to It. I have much more below on its record breaking haul over the weekend which blew away even the most generous forecasts. The question now is how much it falls in its sophomore frame.
As I see it, It should drop around 55% or so according to similarly performing titles. However, the Stephen King adapted pic displayed remarkably sturdy holds over the weekend from Friday to Saturday to Sunday. I believe there’s a chance it doesn’t even quite dip 50%, but I will put it at about 52%.
The rest of the top five should consist of the underwhelming Home Again and The Hitman’s Bodyguard.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:
1. It
Predicted Gross: $59 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. mother!
Predicted Gross: $14.7 million
3. American Assassin
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Home Again
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 47%)
5. The Hitman’s Bodyguard
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million (representing a drop of 46%)
Box Office Results (September 8-10)
It happens and then some! You could see the potential for the horror pic’s opening weekend possibilities growing higher and higher prior to Friday. That said, it was hard to foresee just how huge it would be. It took in an astonishing $123.4 million… I was only $58M off with my $65.4 million estimate.
The film crossed into cultural phenomenon and must-see territory somewhere along the way. It deciminated records. The previous highest September debut held by HotelTransylvania2 at $48 million? It topped that by $75 million. The all-time horror opening record of $52 million by ParanormalActivity3? Bested that by over $70 million.
It also scored the second largest R rated premiere ever behind Deadpool ($132M). As far as 2017 goes, it ranks third – meaning it debuted higher than WonderWoman, Spider–Man: Homecoming and TheFateoftheFurious.
Sometimes a picture manages to catch a wave of anticipation that few can see. It accomplished that and then some. Chapter 2 will be out in two years and expect lots of Stephen King remakes to go into production shortly.
There were other movies playing even if no one else really noticed. The Reese Witherspoon rom com Home Again couldn’t overcome its mostly poor reviews to serve as counter programming to the It juggernaut. It earned just $8.5 million for second, below my $11.3M projection.
The Hitman’s Bodyguard was third after three weeks on top with $4.8 million compared to my $5.4M prediction. It’s earned $64 million overall.
Annabelle: Creation was fourth with $4 million (I said $3.4M) as it nears the century mark with $96 million.
Wind River rounded out the top five with $3.1 million (I said $3.6M) to bring its total to $24 million.
The fall box office officially is underway this weekend and it can’t come soon enough after a truly lackluster end to the summer season. This season is looking to kick off in record breaking fashion with the release of Stephen King adapted horror pic It as well as the Reese Witherspoon rom com Home Again. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Riding a wave of solid buzz coupled with its eerie TV spots and trailers, It is shaping up to be an event film. My estimate easily makes it the highest September debut of all time and biggest horror opening in history.
Home Again should easily be #2 considering the extreme lack of competition, but the question is how effective it will be as counter programming for female audiences. I have it just under a teens debut as it hopes to leg out in subsequent weekends.
The rest of the top five will be filled with holdovers. The Hitman’s Bodyguard three week reign on top will be over. Last weekend’s #2 Annabelle: Creation may suffer the largest decline because of the It factor.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. It
Predicted Gross: $65.4 million
2. Home Again
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
3. TheHitman’sBodyguard
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing a drop of 48%)
4. WindRiver
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million (representing a drop of 43%)
5. Annabelle: Creation
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 54%)
Box Office Results (September 1-4)
As anticipated, the summer movie season closed with a whimper. That said, most of the holdovers help up better than my estimates while two newcomers couldn’t manage to find an audience. Even though my forecasts were low, this was still the weakest Labor Day frame in 17 years.
The Hitman’s Bodyguard placed first for the third weekend in a row with $13.2 million, managing to easily surpass my $8.9M projection. It ends its run in first place with $57 million total.
Annballe: Creation was second with $9.1 million – topping my meager $5.7M estimate for a tally of $90 million.
WindRiver continued a laudible run, climbing to third with $7.8 million (I was under with $5.1M). It’s made $20 million thus far.
Animated Leap! was fourth with $6.2 million (I said $5.4M) to see its total jump to $12 million.
Dunkirk rounded out the top five with $5.5 million, ahead of my $4.2M prediction. The Oscar hopeful has amassed $180 million.
Aforementioned newbies both bombed. Latin comedy HazloComoHombre earned a measly $1.4 million (I went higher with $3.5M). Long delayed Alicia Vikander period piece TulipFever fared even worse at $1.3 million (I predicted $1.9M). Those debuts were good for 22nd and 24th place, respectively. Ouch.
After this weekend’s incredibly sluggish box office frame (more on that below), Hollywood is more or less taking the Labor Day holiday off. Only two pictures are debuting and neither is a wide release. They are the Spanish language comedy Hazlo Como Hombre and oft-delayed costume drama Tulip Fever. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Even though Hombre is on 200 screens less than Tulip, I’m predicting it will have a higher opening. My $3.5 million estimate for it outshines my $1.9 million one for Tulip. Either way, my takes on the newbies put them both outside the top 5.
The good news (if you can call it that) for returnees is that this particular weekend usually sees very small declines and even increases from the previous weekend. That should mean a return engagement on top for The Hitman’s Bodyguard for the third time.
There could be a legitimate battle for #2 depending on the fluctuations of holdovers like Annabelle: Creation, Leap!, WindRiver, Dunkirk, or a potentially higher Hombre gross than I’m saying.
And with that, my top 5 estimates for the holiday weekend:
1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 13%)
2. Annabelle: Creation
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 25%)
3. Leap!
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million (representing an increase of 15%)
4. WindRiver
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (representing an increase of 11%)
5. Dunkirk
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million (representing an increase of 10%)
Box Office Results (August 25-27)
It was, to put it mildly, a terrible weekend at the box office. Between the lack of any high-profile releases, a hurricane in Texas, and a boxing match that captured the nation’s attention on Saturday night, the top 12 sunk to its lowest level since late September 2001. Obviously, this was at a time when the country was still reeling from the 9/11 tragedy. It will clearly take It the following weekend to wake the box office from its slumber because it isn’t happening over Labor Day.
As anticipated, The Hitman’s Bodyguard repeated at #1 with $10.2 million, in line with my $10.5M estimate for a two-week total of $39M. Look for it to three peat this weekend in another disastrous frame.
Annabelle: Creation held the runner-up spot again with $7.6 million, on pace with my $7.7M projection for a $78M overall tally.
Animated Leap! debuted in third with a middling $4.7 million, a bit above my $4.1M take. The production did manage an A Cinemascore grade, so it’ll hope for a fair Labor Day gross.
I incorrectly left the Jeremy Renner thriller WindRiver outside the top 5, but it expanded its screen count to place fourth and made $4.6 million to bring its earnings to $10M.
LoganLucky was fifth with $4.2 million (I said $4M) and it’s lackluster total is $14M.
Dunkirk was sixth with $3.9 million (I estimated $4.2M) for $172M overall.
Other debuts failed to garner eyeballs. BirthoftheDragon was 8th with $2.7 million compared to my $2.9M projection. Faith based drama AllSaints faltered in 16th with $1.5 million. I was more generous with a $2.6M prediction.
The doldrums of the late August box office eclipses theaters this weekend as four new entries are scheduled to open wide: animated Leap!, Christian themed drama All Saints, martial arts pic Birth of the Dragon, and Robert Pattinson heist thriller Good Time. You can look directly at my individual prediction posts here:
As you can see, I only have one of the newbies over $4 million (ouch). Good Time is a bit of a head scratcher, since there’s no theater count yet (my estimate for it could easily change). I only have it at $1.5 million currently.
With my $2.9 million prediction for Dragon and $2.6 million prognosis for Saints, that means I only have Leap! managing a top 5 debut in fourth.
That means holdovers dominate the remainder of my picks with The Hitman’s Bodyguard easily repeating at number one and Annabelle: Creation, Logan Lucky, and Dunkirk filling the remaining slots.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:
1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 51%)
2. Annabelle: Creation
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 51%)
3. Dunkirk
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million (representing a drop of 36%)
4. Leap!
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
5. LoganLucky
Predicted Gross: $4 million (representing a drop of 47%)
Box Office Results (August 18-20)
TheHitman’sBodyguard easily topped the box office and opened at the highest end of expectations with $21.3 million compared to my lower $16.7M estimate. The Ryan Reynolds/Samuel L. Jackson action comedy could well be #1 for three weeks, considering the extreme lack of competition.
Annabelle: Creation dropped to second with $15.6 million to bring its pleasing total to $64 million. I predicted just a tad lower at $14.6M.
Despite positive reviews and considerable star power, Steven Soderbergh’s heist comedy LoganLucky opened with lackluster results in third with $7.6 million, below my $10.5M prediction.
Dunkirk was fourth with $6.6 million (I said $7M) for a $165 million overall tally.
TheNutJob2: NuttybyNature was fifth in its second weekend with $5 million, a bit above my $4.5M forecast. Its total is $17 million.
Mid August at the box office comes with some star power as two new pictures open competing for the same audience: Ryan Reynolds/Samuel L. Jackson action comedy The Hitman’s Bodyguard and Steven Soderbergh’s heist action comedy Logan Lucky with Channing Tatum and Daniel Craig. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:
The newbies could find themselves in a battle for the #1 spot. Lucky is winning on the reviews side with a terrific 96% on Rotten Tomatoes while Bodyguard stands at 55%. However, my inkling is that Mr. Reynolds will edge out Mr. Tatum with a gross in the mid to higher teens with Lucky in the lower teens.
There’s also the matter of Annabelle: Creation, which got off to a strong start this past weekend (more on that below). If Bodyguard and Lucky both underwhelm, the demonic doll has a slight chance to repeat at #1. However, the horror prequel is likely to suffer a drop in the mid to high 50s. If it all pans out as I see it, we will have our fourth weekend of 2017 where no movie manages to top $20 million.
The rest of the top five should be filled out by holdovers Dunkirk and The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature in its second frame after a weak start.
Lastly, the Taylor Sheridan directed thriller Wind River with Jeremy Renner and Elizabeth Olsen is slated to expand to approximately 600-700 screens. It’s been performing well with critics and in limited release. If that screen count holds true, I’d peg it at $3.1 million this weekend.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:
1. The Hitman’s Bodyguard
Predicted Gross: $16.7 million
2. Annabelle: Creation
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million (representing a drop of 58%)
3. Logan Lucky
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
4. Dunkirk
Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 36%)
5. The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)
Box Office Results (August 11-13)
Annabelle: Creation scared up some solid business taking in $35 million (beating my $31.4M forecast) to easily place #1. The horror prequel fell just shy of the $37.1 million accomplished by its 2014 predecessor and keeps the Conjuring universe chugging right along.
Dunkirk remained in second with $10.8 million (I was a touch higher at $11.7M). It’s made $153M thus far.
Family audiences largely rejected The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature, which debuted in third to just $8.3 million (under my $12.2M prediction). The sequel made less than half of the $19 million achieved out of the gate by the 2014 original. Opening on over 4000 screens, it had a per screen average of just over $2,000. On the bright side, parents who did take their kids to see it probably had plenty of room to roam about the theater. Ouch.
The Dark Tower went from first to fourth with $7.8 million (I said $7.6M). bringing its lackluster two-week tally to only $34M.
Girls Trip placed fifth with $6.4 million (I projected $7.2M) as it stands at $97M and should cross the century mark this week.
The Emoji Movie was #6, also with $6.4 million (I said $6M) for a $63M total.
Finally, Brie Larson drama The Glass Castle had a respectable debut in ninth with $4.6 million (I was close at $4.2M). On a relatively small 1400+ screens, it actually achieved the second highest per screen average of the top ten.
Blogger’s Note (08/17): I am revising my Logan Lucky prediction down to $10.5 million on the eve of its debut.
The eclectic Steven Soderbergh is back in theaters with heist comedy Logan Lucky, debuting next weekend. It marks the director’s first theatrical release in four and a half years since Side Effects and first picture altogether since 2013’s Behind the Candelabra which premiered on HBO.
Lucky is headlined by many familiar faces, including Channing Tatum, Adam Driver, Daniel Craig (getting raves for the role), Seth MacFarlane, Riley Keough, Katie Holmes, Hilary Swank, Katherine Waterston, Dwight Yoakam, and Sebastian Stan. Reviews have been quite pleasing and it stands at 100% currently on Rotten Tomatoes, being frequently compared to the Ocean‘s trilogy that Soderbergh made.
Even with the solid reviews and a NASCAR tie-in (the film’s heist takes place at a race), there could be some issues with this completely breaking out. There is direct competition in the form of The Hitman’s Bodyguard with Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson and it’s more likely to debut a bit higher. The mid August release date is also not one that lends itself well to openings above $20 million.
I’ll predict Lucky‘s number falls in the low to possibly mid teens, as it will hope to leg out well in future weekends (and may well do so).
Logan Lucky opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million
For my The Hitman’s Bodyguard prediction, click here:
Deadpool may never appear in an Avengers film, but he costars with Nick Fury next weekend when TheHitman’sBodyguard opens. The action comedy brings together Ryan Reynolds and Samuel L. Jackson and looks to target the #1 spot over a rival competing for a similar audience. Patrick Hughes directs with Gary Oldman and Salma Hayek in the supporting cast.
It’s been a year and a half since the star power of Mr. Reynolds went way up with the aforementioned Deadpool. Since then, he’s appeared in supporting roles in Criminal and Life (both box office disappointments). Bodyguard, however, is his first headlining role since his winter 2016 blockbuster.
The pic could somewhat benefit from the dog days of August release and scarce competition – with one notable exception. Another action comedy with some big names – Steven Soderbergh’s LoganLucky with Channing Tatum and Daniel Craig – debuts against it and it’s getting solid reviews. Lucky could charm some viewers away, but the net result could be slightly lower numbers for both because they’re directly competing against each other.
I’ll say Bodyguard manages to come out on top with a debut in the mid to high teens, which should be good for the top spot.
TheHitman’sBodyguard opening weekend prediction: $16.7 million
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