Box Office Predictions: September 15-17

Two new movies debut wide this weekend as It should continue its incredible run on top in its second weekend. The newbies are the Jennifer Lawrence horror thriller mother! and Dylan O’Brien/Michael Keaton CIA action flick American Assassin. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/06/mother-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/06/american-assassin-box-office-prediction/

I’m anticipating a close race for second between the newcomers with mother! just edging out Assassin. I look for both to post numbers in the low to mid teens.

And… now to It. I have much more below on its record breaking haul over the weekend which blew away even the most generous forecasts. The question now is how much it falls in its sophomore frame.

As I see it, It should drop around 55% or so according to similarly performing titles. However, the Stephen King adapted pic displayed remarkably sturdy holds over the weekend from Friday to Saturday to Sunday. I believe there’s a chance it doesn’t even quite dip 50%, but I will put it at about 52%.

My review of It can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/09/it-movie-review/

The rest of the top five should consist of the underwhelming Home Again and The Hitman’s Bodyguard. 

And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:

1. It

Predicted Gross: $59 million (representing a drop of 52%)

2. mother!

Predicted Gross: $14.7 million

3. American Assassin

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million

4. Home Again

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 47%)

5. The Hitman’s Bodyguard

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million (representing a drop of 46%)

Box Office Results (September 8-10)

It happens and then some! You could see the potential for the horror pic’s opening weekend possibilities growing higher and higher prior to Friday. That said, it was hard to foresee just how huge it would be. It took in an astonishing $123.4 million… I was only $58M off with my $65.4 million estimate.

The film crossed into cultural phenomenon and must-see territory somewhere along the way. It deciminated records. The previous highest September debut held by Hotel Transylvania 2 at $48 million? It topped that by $75 million. The all-time horror opening record of $52 million by Paranormal Activity 3? Bested that by over $70 million.

It also scored the second largest R rated premiere ever behind Deadpool ($132M). As far as 2017 goes, it ranks third – meaning it debuted higher than Wonder Woman, SpiderMan: Homecoming and The Fate of the Furious.

Sometimes a picture manages to catch a wave of anticipation that few can see. It accomplished that and then some. Chapter 2 will be out in two years and expect lots of Stephen King remakes to go into production shortly.

There were other movies playing even if no one else really noticed. The Reese Witherspoon rom com Home Again couldn’t overcome its mostly poor reviews to serve as counter programming to the It juggernaut. It earned just $8.5 million for second, below my $11.3M projection.

The Hitman’s Bodyguard was third after three weeks on top with $4.8 million compared to my $5.4M prediction. It’s earned $64 million overall.

Annabelle: Creation was fourth with $4 million (I said $3.4M) as it nears the century mark with $96 million.

Wind River rounded out the top five with $3.1 million (I said $3.6M) to bring its total to $24 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

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