Box Office Predictions: September 22-24

The two-week reign of Pennywise atop the box office looks to float away this weekend as three new pictures debut: Matthew Vaughn’s action/comedy sequel Kingsman: The Golden Circle, animated action/comedy spin-off The Lego Ninjago Movie, and supernatural horror flick Friend Request. You can view my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

There is some question as to whether Kingsman or Ninjago take the top spot. I’m estimating the former will outdo the latter by approximately $5 million.

The continued amazing grosses of It could mean that three movies will top $30 million this weekend, but that demented clown should be right on the edge of that gross with an anticipated drop of around 50%.

American Assassin should slip to fourth place and I have Friend Request managing to round out the top five, albeit with a muted debut.

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:

1. Kingsman: The Golden Circle

Predicted Gross: $43.6 million

2. The Lego Ninjago Movie

Predicted Gross: $38.6 million

3. It

Predicted Gross: $29.8 million (representing a drop of 50%)

4. American Assassin

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)

5. Friend Request

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

Box Office Results (September 15-17) 

It continued its startling run after its record breaking opening with $60.1 million in its second weekend, in line with my $59M forecast. The juggernaut has amassed an incredible $218 million in its ten days of existence.

American Assassin with Dylan O’Brien and Michael Keaton was runner-up with a respectable $14.8 million, topping my $13.2M prediction. That might not be enough to justify a franchise, but you never know.

Darren Aronofsky’s instantly controversial mother! with Jennifer Lawrence sputtered in third with $7.5 million. I was considerably higher with a $14.7M projection. While critics were mostly kind (68% on Rotten Tomatoes), audiences rendered their verdict with both their money and CinemaScore grade (an F, which is practically unprecedented). Expect mother! to take a massive tumble this coming weekend as well with the toxic word-of-mouth.

Reese Witherspoon’s Home Again held up decently in its sophomore weekend at #4 with $5.1 million compared to my $4.5M estimate. The rom com has grossed nearly $17 million so thus far.

The Hitman’s Bodyguard was fifth with $3.5 million (I said $2.6M) to bring its total to $70 million.

And that does it for now, ladies and gents! Until next time…

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