Blogger’s Update (05/10): With reports that Knights of the Zodiac is only opening on 750 screens, I’m revising my prediction from $2.2M to $1.2M.
Based on a Japanese manga series that began in the mid 1980s, Knights of the Zodiac hits theaters this Friday. The fantasy adventure is directed by Tomek Bagiński and stars Mackenyu, son of martial arts legend Sonny Chiba. Costars include Famke Janssen, Madison Iseman, Diego Tinoco, Mark Dacascos, Nick Stahl, and Sean Bean.
With a reported budget of $60 million, Zodiac hopes to make its mark overseas. Its domestic prospects look dim. I haven’t seen an official screen count (and that could alter my projection), but I’d be surprised if this topped $5 million. In fact, it might be lucky to take in half of that.
Knight of the Zodiac opening weekend prediction: $1.2 million
For my Book Club: The Next Chapter prediction, click here:
When it comes to the quality of humor in Renfield, the ska’s the limit. There are lame jokes about how ska music sucks. The impression I get from this horror comedy is they could’ve let Nicolas Cage vamp as Dracula for an hour and a half and it would’ve been better. It wouldn’t take much as this is a mighty, mighty letdown.
Renfield (Nicholas Hoult) has been the servant to Cage’s Dracula for over 100 years and he’s finally ready to hang it up. The decades old duo now reside in subterranean New Orleans. The famed vampire depends on his employee for victims to gorge on. The more innocent they are (he requests a busload of cheerleaders or group of nuns), the more power he has. Renfield, meanwhile, stays nourished by feasting on bugs. His emotional nourishment comes from a 12-step group focused on co-dependency.
If this concept sounds like a clever angle on this oft told story, it is. Director Chris McKay and screenwriter Ryan Ridley can’t figure out how to make it enjoyable. Much of the runtime takes the light away from Cage, whose performance is easily the strongest. Instead we get a yawn inducing main plot teaming Renfield up with Awkwafina’s determined bayou cop Rebecca. She’s trying to bring down the Lobo crime family led by matriarch Bellafrancesca (Shohreh Aghdashloo) and hotshot son Teddy (Ben Schwartz). That storyline is filled with wretched overacting (not the glorious kind that Cage brings) with the Lobo’s as the worst offenders. There are shades of Eddie Murphy’s middling (but better) Vampire in Brooklyn in the Mob business. Awkwafina, on the other hand, underplays her part. It’s almost as if she’s not there. The script barely attempts romantic sparks between her and Renfield and there’s a family dynamic involving her FBI agent sister that is completely tacked on. I suspect her sibling might have had a larger role in the original draft and was cut. Hoult is a talented performer in need of a sharper role.
The action sequences are sloppily shot and edited though if it’s spurting blood you want, your thirst might be occasionally quenched. Cage is game and provides some laughs, but he’s trapped in the rubbish. Does this come off as a giant missed opportunity? No doubt.
As the fourth day of May is upon us, it occurred to me that I’ve never done an official ranking of the 11 Star Wars movies that kicked off 46 years ago today.
I’m not going to go into detail beyond the actual numbers other than to say the following:
My #1 is the one most would pick so no points for originality there.
I do not, however, hold the first trilogy at 1-2-3. Yes, rewatches of Return of the Jedi through the years have lowered my opinion (especially compared to its predecessors).
I do not look at The Force Awakens as a disappointing retread of the 1977 original as its reputation has increasingly become. And I’m a pretty big admirer of its follow-up The Last Jedi. Not so much for The Rise of Skywalker.
Here’s my personal list (from weakest to strongest) of the series!
11. Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones (2002)
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (2018)
9. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019)
8. Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace (1999)
7. Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith (2005)
There’s a moment in the third act of The Pope’s Exorcist where we hear the internal monologue of a main character in the throws of their demonic experience. It got me thinking that might make for a compelling and fresh angle in a genre made famous 50 years ago with Regan and her backwards turning head. I have accurately described it as a moment. It’s over before we know it and reminded me a little of what Tom Hardy hears in Venom after his symbiotic takeover. With Russell Crowe having a ball in Julius Avery’s horror thriller, Exorcist has a few quirky moments that I appreciated before it reverts to the tropes we’re familiar with.
The screenplay’s peculiar nature is evident in the first scene. We are introduced to Father Gabriele Amorth (Crowe), who served as the Pope’s go-to exorcism guy for decades beginning in the 1970s. That’s in real life, folks! You can look it up on Wiki and it’s a fascinating read. I’m sure Amorth’s books are as well. He claims to have performed 100k+ of the purification rituals. The opening sequence finds Amorth in 1987 transferring the evil vibes to a pig, who is then violently transferred to breakfast.
Crowe proceeds to ham it up around the nuns and his superiors in Vatican City as he awaits the next assignment. Many of his fellow priests think he needs a demotion. The head pontiff (Franco Nero) believes otherwise and he’s soon riding his Vespa to an abandoned abbey in Spain.
That’s where American widow Julia (Alex Essoe), teenage daughter Amy (Laurel Marsden), and preteen Henry (Peter DeSouza-Feighoney) are residing after their departed patriarch willed them the property. The monastery holds centuries old secrets under its rickety structure and a nasty spirit soon overtakes Henry. A local Father (Daniel Zovatto) can’t figure out the invader so Amorth is assigned. The young boy’s demon proves canny at using his would-be exorcist’s previous sins against him.
One could claim that The Pope’s Exorcist offers nothing new to the frequently explored material. I could argue the opposite. After all, I hadn’t seen the pig angle and there’s also papal projectile vomiting. Avery, Crowe, and screenwriters Michael Petroni and Evan Spiliotopoulos are to be commended for its campy B-movie spirit. Amorth has a habit of exclaiming “CUCKOO!” at passersby during unexpected times. The cuckoo bits work often enough that I had little trouble putting up with the expected sections of traditional possession.
Focus Features is hoping an older and mostly female audience is kindled by their fond memories of part 1 when Book Club: The Next Chapter opens on May 12th. The sequel to the 2018 rom com features Diane Keaton, Jane Fonda, Candice Bergen, Mary Steenburgen, Andy Garcia, Don Johnson, and Craig T. Nelson reprising their roles. Bill Holderman is back in the director’s seat.
With the action moved to Italy, Chapter seeks to serve a crowd often underserved in the summer season. It’s a formula that paid off handsomely in the same mid-May time frame five years ago. Book Club started with $13.6 million and continued exceeding expectations with small drop-offs in subsequent frames. It ended up earning nearly $70 million domestically and just over $100 million worldwide.
I don’t see any reason why this would fall much under the original in its first weekend. There’s another recent comp in 80 for Brady (also with Fonda) as it premiered with a similar $12.5 million (though it did suffer larger declines afterwards than Club).
I’ll say this debuts right in range with its predecessor. It could go slightly over or under and I’ll pick the latter.
Book Club: The Next Chapter opening weekend prediction: $10.8 million
For my Knights of the Zodiac prediction, click here:
In recent years, the summer movie season officially kicks off when the MCU releases a tentpole adventure. That’s the case in 2023 with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 arriving to end the month long reign of The Super Mario Bros. Movie. We also have rom dramedy Love Again hoping to attract a female audience. My detailed prediction posts on the newbies can be found here:
Tracking suggests that the third Guardians will fall short of the $146 million opening achieved by its 2017 predecessor, but top the $94 million that the original made way back in 2014. Anything significantly under #2’s start will be considered a letdown and I am projecting a gross $20 million shy of its mark. If that occurs, it would be the second less than anticipated haul for a Marvel pic after Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania.
With a billion bucks in the worldwide bank and after four weeks in first, The Super Mario Bros. Movie should at last relinquish the crown. A low 4os dip should put it in the low to mid 20s.
Evil Dead Rise and Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (after a disappointing premiere) should each fall a spot while John Wick: Chapter 4 may remain in fifth position.
That’s assuming Love Again struggles to find its desired audience and I am forecasting that’ll be the scenario. I have it in sixth and it might be lucky to get that much love.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Predicted Gross: $125.3 million
2. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Predicted Gross: $23.8 million
3. Evil Dead Rise
Predicted Gross: $6.2 million
4. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. John Wick: Chapter 4
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
6. Love Again
Predicted Gross: $3.2 million
Box Office Results (April 28-30)
The Super Mario Bros. Movie was #1 for the month of April as it spent a fourth weekend atop the charts with $40.8 million. That’s on pace with my $39.4 million estimate as the Nintendo juggernaut is up to $490 million domestically while crossing a billion worldwide.
Evil Dead Rise, especially for a horror sequel, had a commendable hold in second with $12.1 million, rising beyond my $8.8 million projection. The ten-day haul is an impressive $44 million.
Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret, the cinematic rendering of Judy Blume’s acclaimed novel, was searching for an audience and came up short. In third place, it made a weak $6.7 million. This is well under my $15.3 million take as it struggled despite mostly rave reviews.
Return of the Jedi celebrated its 40th birthday with a return to approximately 500 screens and added $5.1 million to its coffers for fourth place. I didn’t have it on my radar screen to reach the top five.
John Wick: Chapter 4 was fifth with $4.8 million (I said $4.1 million) to bring its earnings to $176 million after six weeks.
Two other newcomers didn’t make much of a dent. Finnish action pic Sisu was in 10th place with $3.3 million. That’s actually not too shabby given its low 1006 theater count.
Boxing biopic Big George Foreman was knocked out with $2.9 million in 11th place. I thought it would perform better and went with $5.7 million.
And that does it for now, folks! Catch my podcast where I talk all things box office by searching Movies at the Speed of Speculation on your favorite platform! Until next time…
As April closes out, I’m giving you my initial ranked projections for the Best Picture race at the 96th Academy Awards. Over the past few days, I’ve done the same for Director and the four acting derbies. If you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post.
I will note that I made my first rankings for the 95th Oscars around the same time last year. Of those 10 movies predicted, it yielded three eventual nominees: Everything Everywhere All at Once (which won), The Fabelmans, and Women Talking. Four additional contenders were mentioned in Other Possibilities: Avatar: The Way of Water, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, and Tár.
Three films in my top 25 from 2022 can be found here since they were delayed: Killers of the Flower Moon, Poor Things, and Rustin. Let’s dispense with the caveats you’re used to seeing if you read my other write-ups. Some titles here are bound to be pushed back. Some will simply not match pre-release hype and fall by the wayside. Surprises will emerge throughout the season and at upcoming festivals.
Here’s the premiere outlook on BP’ 23!
TODD’S BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS
1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Past Lives
3. The Color Purple
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Oppenheimer
6. Poor Things
7. Saltburn
8. Challengers
9. Air
10. May December
Other Possibilities:
11. Maestro
12. The Holdovers
13. Blitz
14. Barbie
15. Bob Marley: One Love
16. Napoleon
17. The Book of Clarence
18. Strangers
19. Flint Strong
20. Rustin
21. The Killer
22. Asteroid City
23. Ferrari
24. The Nickel Boys
25. The Bikeriders
And now you can expect updates to these rankings every couple of weeks (they’ll soon become weekly). Keep an eye on the blog and on my podcast (search Movies at the Speed of Speculation) for all of it!
Oscar predictions encompassing my first ranked selections for the 96th Academy Awards turns to Best Director. If you didn’t catch my posts on the acting contenders, you can find them at the bottom.
My initial projections for the previous ceremony at the same juncture in 2022 correctly identified Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) in the top five and had eventual winners the Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once) in sixth. I also had Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things) listed. Their pictures got pushed back and you’ll find them here yet again.
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 touches down in multiplexes on May 5th to kick off the summer season. The 32nd feature in the Marvel Cinematic Universe arrives six years after the second Guardians. James Gunn is back in the director’s seat for the third time with Chris Pratt, Zoe Saldana, Dave Bautista, Karen Gillan, Vin Diesel, and Bradley Cooper among those reprising their roles in real and voiceover form.
This franchise in the MCU has caught the attention of awards voters. 2014’s original nabbed two nominations in Makeup and Hairstyling and Visual Effects. It lost to The Grand Budapest Hotel and Interstellar, respectively. 2017’s sequel made it in for Visual Effects and came up short to Blade Runner 2049.
Reviews for the third go-round are mostly positive (though several critics say it tries to pack in too much). The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 80%. That’s behind the 92% achieved by part 1 and 85% of its follow-up. That said, Vol. 3 could certainly (and probably will) be the 3rd Guardians pic and 14th overall MCU title to get make the VE five. Makeup and Hairstyling is definitely on the table. If so and it would be the third MCU pic to contend there after the first Guardians and last year’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Anything beyond inclusion in those two races would be a surprise. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Sony Pictures is hoping Love Again will capture the hearts of rom com fans and go on to solid earnings when it debuts May 5th. A remake of the 2016 German feature SMS für Dich, James C. Strouse directs the dramedy starring Priyanka Chopra Jonas, Sam Heughan, Russell Tovey, and Celine Dion (who plays a version of herself helping the two leads connect).
At one point titled It’s All Coming Back to Me (after one of Celine’s notable power ballads), Love may find challenges getting audiences coming in. A best case scenario is finding a decent female audience to serve as counter programming to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. That glass half full outlook could get it in high single digits or even $10 million. I’ll say it’ll be lucky to make half of that.
Love Again opening weekend prediction: $3.2 million
For my Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 prediction, click here:
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