Blogger’s Update (04/05): I am revising my estimate for Mario slightly up from $92.6M for the three-day to $98.6M and from $128.7M for the five-day to $137.7M
The Easter weekend starts early with Illumination Entertainment’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Ben Affleck’s sports drama Air rising in multiplexes on Wednesday. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
It’s Mario that should have no trouble ruling the holiday frame. Coming from the studio behind the massive Despicable Me, Minions, and Sing franchises, this is likely to spawn another one. I’ve got it topping $90 million for the traditional Friday to Sunday portion and falling just shy of $130 million during its first five days.
Air could certainly exceed forecasts with its strong reviews and frequent promotion during the March Madness tournament. I’m projecting a low double digits output for the three-day and high teens for the five. The Friday to Sunday take would place it fourth. Expect it to have sturdy holds in subsequent weekends.
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves may see a mid to high 50s dip in its sophomore frame while John Wick: Chapter 4 might experience a high 40s to 50% percentage drop. That would mean they fall a spot to 2nd and 3rd, respectively.
After a slightly better than anticipated beginning, His Only Son could take advantage of the Easter weekend with a l0w 30s slide for fifth.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. The Super Mario Bros. Movie
Predicted Gross: $98.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $137.7 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
2. Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million
3. John Wick: Chapter 4
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million
4. Air
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $18.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
5. His Only Son
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
Box Office Results (March 31-April 2)
Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves matched or barely surpassed most prognostications with $37.2 million for the gold. That’s beyond my $32.7 million call. It’s a decent opening though not spectacular considering the reported $150 million budget (minus promotion). Factoring in overseas earnings, however, it might still spawn a franchise.
John Wick: Chapter 4 was second after its series best start. Down an understandable 62% at $28.3 million (I went a little higher at $31.5 million), the ten-day haul is $123 million.
Faith-based drama His Only Son, on less than 2000 screens, managed a sturdy $5.5 million (I was lower at $3.8 million). As mentioned, this may experience the lowest decline of the holdovers coming up.
Spots 4-6 were holdover sequels with Scream VI in fourth at $5.3 million compared to my $4.2 million projection. The tally is nearly at nine digits with $98 million.
Creed III was fifth with $5 million (I said $4.6 million) to bring its total to $148 million.
Shazam! Fury of the Gods was sixth at $4.6 million, in line with my $4.3 million forecast for a lowly $53 million (which is was its 2019 predecessor opened with).
Check out my podcast where I talk all things box office by searching “Movies at the Speed of Speculation” at your favorite podcasting engine…
Blogger’s Note (06/30): On the eve of its premiere, upping my Minions estimate from $78.4M to $86.4M
Coming off a weekend where four pictures posted grosses north of $20 million (a first since 2018!), Minions: The Rise of Gru looks to set box office fireworks and rule the holiday weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
The five-year wait between entries for the Despicable Me/Minions franchise could limit its potential a bit. However, my projected four-day haul approaching $80 million will easily give it the gold.
As for holdovers, Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick should duke it out for second position. While the former edged Maverick for a #1 debut (more on that below), look for Tom Cruise and company to have a better hold and likely maintain runner-up status. It’s also important to remember that overall declines for most pics should be smaller than normal considering that July 4th falls on Monday.
Jurassic World: Dominion and The Black Phone should slide spots to 4th and 5th. There’s a slight chance Phone could experience a hefty slide (due to its being in the horror genre) and Lightyear stays fifth. However, given the Pixar pic’s underperformance and hefty sophomore dip, I don’t anticipate that being the case. Plus Phone nabbed a B+ Cinemascore grade which is just fine for that genre.
With that – let’s make it a top 6 forecast and remember these are projections for Friday to Monday given the Independence Day frame:
1. Minions: The Rise of Gru
Predicted Gross: $86.4 million
2. Top Gun: Maverick
Predicted Gross: $29.8 million
3. Elvis
Predicted Gross: $23.2 million
4. Jurassic World: Dominion
Predicted Gross: $17.3 million
5. The Black Phone
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million
6. Lightyear
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
Box Office Results (June 24-26)
In one of the closest finishes in recent box office times, Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis was crowned king with $31.2 million. While not quite matching my $35.6 million prediction, it’s a solid number for an adult skewering musical biopic.
Top Gun: Maverick continued its epic run in second with $29.6 million. Like with Elvis, I was a little high at $34.8 million. In five weeks of release, the spectacularly performing sequel has amassed $520 million. That’s the third all-time #5 frame behind Avatar and Titanic.
Jurassic World: Dominion fell to third after two weeks on top with $26.7 million, just under my $28.3 million take. The dino saga stands at a sturdy $303 million.
Critically appreciated fright fest The Black Phone opened in fourth with $23.6 million – ringing up a more impressive number than my $18.6 million projection. Considering its budget is only a reported $18 million, this will be yet another profitable venture for Blumhouse.
Finally, Lightyear slid from second to fifth. Crashing harder than anticipated in its second orbit after an unimpressive start, the Pixar spinoff made $18.1 million (I said $23.2 million). The two-week tally is a muted $89 million after ten days. For comparison sake, I had it making $85 million in its first three days.
Illumination Entertainment will rule the Fourth of July weekend at the box office when Minions: The Rise of Gru hits theaters on July 1st. This is the fifth entry in the franchise that began a dozen summers back with Despicable Me and the first in five years.
Some early reviews are out and they’re mostly indicating it’s a decent if unspectacular chapter of the series. With 67% on Rotten Tomatoes, that’s higher than the two previous pics – 2015’s Minions (55%) and 2017’s Despicable Me 3 (59%). Of course, Gru‘s number will soon rise or fall as more critics weigh in.
2010’s Despicable Me (81%) and its 2013 sequel (75%) fared better, but only part two received awards attention. It was nominated for Best Animated Feature and Original Song with Pharrell’s inescapable “Happy”. Due to Disney’s Frozen and the equally omnipresent “Let It Go”, it lost both.
Based on early buzz, I see no path for Gru to find its way to the Animated Feature derby. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Note (06/30): On the eve of its premiere, upping my Minions estimate from $78.4M to $86.4M
Illumination and Universal Pictures should light up the Fourth of July weekend at the box office with Minions: The Rise of Gru. The sequel to the 2015 spinoff prequel and the fifth overall entry in the Despicable Me franchise, Kyle Balda directs with Steve Carell returning to voice the title character. Other performers in the booth include Pierre Coffin, Taraji P. Henson, Michelle Yeoh, RZA, Jean-Claude Van Damme, Lucy Lawless, Dolph Lundgren, Danny Trejo, Russell Brand, Julie Andrews, and Alan Arkin. How’s that for eclectic? I’m pretty sure this marks the first collaboration between Van Damme and Andrews.
This series has proved to be a financial windfall for its studio. All four previous pics have made over $250 million domestically. Minions took in $115 million out of the gate seven summers back with $336 million overall. Immediate predecessor Despicable Me 3 from 2017, while still a hit, wasn’t as high. It premiered with $72 million and ended up with $264 million.
Three years was previously the longest wait between films. The five year gap is a bit risky as some of its fans are simply older. We’ve also seen a very recent example of an animated disappointment with Pixar’s Lightyear.
That said, I suspect Gru will rise to the occasion with a four-day holiday haul in the $75-85 million range. I’m starting out on the lower end of that scale, but my estimate could go up in the days ahead.
Minions: The Rise of Gru opening weekend prediction: $86.4 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
Today on the blog, we come to the third and final replay of the cinematic summers from 30, 20, and 10 years ago. If you missed my posts covering 1990 and 2000, you may find them right here:
This brings us to 2010 where sequels ruled the top 3 slots and a couple of other significant franchises were born. We also all had our collective minds blown by Christopher Nolan’s brand of time shifting sci-fi action.
As I have with previous entries, I’ll recount the top ten hits, some other notable titles, and the flops of the season. Let’s get at it!
10. The Other Guys
Domestic Gross: $119 million
The buddy cop comedy marked the fourth collaboration in six years between director Adam McKay and his lead Will Ferrell after Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy, Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby, and Step Brothers. It also marks Ferrell’s first teaming with Mark Wahlberg and the pair would go on to make two successful and family friendlier Daddy’s Home pics.
9. The Last Airbender
Domestic Gross: $131 million
Based on the Nickelodeon animated series, the fantasy adventure marked a departure from M. Night Shyamalan’s twisty suspense thrillers. It did, however, maintain the filmmaker’s recent trend of critically savaged titles (arriving two years behind the lambasted The Happening). It couldn’t match its reported $150 million budget stateside.
8. Grown Ups
Domestic Gross: $162 million
Adam Sandler continued to prove himself review proof with this comedy where he recruited buddies Kevin James, Chris Rock, David Spade, and Rob Schneider for another sizable hit. A sequel followed three years later.
7. The Karate Kid
Domestic Gross: $176 million
Produced by his parents Will and Jada, this retooling of the 1984 blockbuster starred Jaden Smith with Jackie Chan as his mentor. Shot for just about $40 million, it grossed over $300 million worldwide. Surprisingly, a planned sequel never materialized.
6. Shrek Forever After
Domestic Gross: $238 million
Typically a gross of $238 million is quite an achievement, but not necessarily in this case for the Dreamworks animated franchise. Forever grossed less than its three predecessors and generated mixed critical reaction.
5. Despicable Me
Domestic Gross: $251 million
At the start of summer 2010, not many would have have projected this original Illumination Entertainment animated tale would outdo Shrek. Yet that’s exactly what occurred and two sequels and the Minions spin-off franchise have followed.
4. Inception
Domestic Gross: $292 million
Coming hot off the heels of 2008’s The Dark Knight, Christopher Nolan had another huge earner in his collaboration with Leonardo DiCaprio. It might have been a challenge to follow the plot, but audiences gave it their best and a worldwide take over $800 million occurred. Multiple Oscar nominations, including Best Picture (though not Nolan’s direction), resulted.
3. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse
Domestic Gross: $300 million
2010 found audiences still enraptured by the Robert Pattinson and Kristen Stewart and Taylor Lautner vampire romance. The third entry in the series set a midnight earnings ($30 million) opening record that stood for a year before Harry Potter swept it away.
2. Iron Man 2
Domestic Gross: $312 million
The Marvel Cinematic Universe was still in its infancy a decade ago as this was the third pic of the bunch. Part 2 posted fine numbers, but was considered a bit of a letdown compared to the first edition. It did mark the first appearance of Scarlett Johansson’s Black Widow and a buff and whip cracking Mickey Rourke as the main villain.
1. Toy Story 3
Domestic Gross: $415 million
Pixar easily ruled the season with the third flick in the studio’s startup series. Arriving 15 years after the original, the return of Woody and Buzz was a critical darling that earned a Best Picture nomination and lots of love from all ages. Part 4 would follow in 2019.
And now for some other noteworthy pictures from the time frame:
Salt
Domestic Gross: $118 million
Arriving two years after her action hit Wanted, this spy thriller hovered just outside the top 10 and managed to just outgross its $110 million budget in North America.
The Expendables
Domestic Gross: $105 million
Sylvester Stallone led a band of action heroes in this early August title that tapped the nostalgia of moviegoers. A pair of sequels followed that would bring in more genre heavy hitters like Arnold Schwarzenegger, Jean-Claude Van Damme, Bruce Willis, Wesley Snipes, Chuck Norris, and Harrison Ford.
Eat Pray Love
Domestic Gross: $80 million
This adaptation of a 2006 bestseller starring Julia Roberts brought in a sizable female audience and hit just over $200 million worldwide against a $60 million budget.
Dinner for Schmucks
Domestic Gross: $73 million
Steve Carell and Paul Rudd headlined this midsize hit that got mixed reviews. It has since turned into a bit of a cult favorite in subsequent years.
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
Domestic Gross: $31 million
There’s no question that I could have put this teen action romance in the misfires column as it made just a fraction of its $85 million price tag. However, the Edgar Wright title has since achieved significant status as an impressive original work with a major following.
The Kids Are All Right
Domestic Gross: $20 million
This domestic dramedy became a major awards player and was nominated for Best Picture with acting nods going to Annette Bening, Julianne Moore, and Mark Ruffalo.
MacGruber
Domestic Gross: $8 million
Just as with Pilgrim, this SNL spin-off with Will Forte was a financial bomb. Yet it has also turned into a cult classic and there’s a rumored sequel or TV spin-off in the making.
Winter’s Bone
Domestic Gross: $6 million
This indie mystery is notable for introducing Jennifer Lawrence to critics, if not a wide audience. Bone would earn the star her first Oscar nomination in addition to a Best Picture nod. Of course, Ms. Lawrence would break out in the next two years with the X-Men and Hunger Games series and her Oscar victory happened in 2012 with Silver Linings Playbook.
And now for some movies that didn’t match their expectations:
Robin Hood
Domestic Gross: $105 million
With a budget that may have been as high as $200 million, Robin Hood reunited Russell Crowe with Ridley Scott. A decade earlier, they made Gladiator which was a giant hit that won Best Picture. As for this version of the oft told saga, it’s largely forgotten.
Sex and the City 2
Domestic Gross: $95 million
The second installment cinematically of the beloved HBO series, part 2 made more than $50 million below its predecessor from 2008. Critics also savaged it.
Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time
Domestic Gross: $90 million
A hoped for franchise for Disney, the $150 million fantasy pic couldn’t hit the century mark in North America. Lead Jake Gyllenhaal has since expressed his regret for doing it.
The A-Team
Domestic Gross: $77 million
A year after his breakthrough in The Hangover, this action pic based on the 1980s TV series didn’t quite turn Bradley Cooper (alongside Liam Neeson) into an action star. Audience mostly found it, well, expendable.
Knight and Day
Domestic Gross: $76 million
Tom Cruise and Cameron Diaz couldn’t provide enough star power for this action comedy to get near its budget north of $100 million.
Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore
Domestic Gross: $43 million
Perhaps nine years was too long a break between sequels. The original family tale was an unexpected hit at $93 million in 2001, but the long gestating sequel didn’t gross half that number.
Jonah Hex
Domestic Gross: $10 million
This DC Comics based title with Josh Brolin in the title role and Megan Fox was an instant flop, barely making eight figures against a $47 million budget. It also held a sad 12% Rotten Tomatoes rating.
And that wraps up my looks at the summers of decades past, folks! I’ll have 1991, 2001, and 2011 recaps up in a year’s time…
Over the weekend, Illumination Entertainment’s TheGrinch dominated the box office with a mid 60s debut. The animated pic continues a string of pleasing grosses for the studio that houses the lucrative DespicableMe/Minions franchise.
Could that mean TheGrinch finds its way into the mix for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars? It’s doubtful. For starters, reviews have been mixed as it currently sits at 55% on Rotten Tomatoes. The race is also filling up with Incredibles2 and IsleofDogs with probable reserved spots and the upcoming RalphBreakstheInternet looking to nab one. I feel that other wide release pics like EarlyMan and Smallfoot could also be potential contenders.
Most importantly, while Illumination produces blockbusters, that success hasn’t translated into nominations. Only DespicableMe2 got one, with better reviewed titles like TheSecretLifeofPets and other Despicable efforts left out.
Bottom line: the studio’s Grinch reward will come from its earnings and not awards ceremonies. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Blogger’s Note: on the eve of its premiere, I’m giving this a bump from $56.4 million to $63.4 million
Illumination Entertainment’s The Grinch looks to be a profitable one when it hits theaters next weekend. The animated take on the Dr. Seuss classic features the voice of Benedict Cumberbatch as the grumpy Christmas hating character. Other voice over work is provided by Cameron Seely, Rashida Jones, Kenan Thompson, Angela Lansbury, and Pharrell Williams. Scott Mosier and Yarrow Cheney (who co-directed Illumination’s The Secret Life of Pets) are the filmmakers.
In 2000, the live-action version of this tale with Jim Carrey was a massive smash for Universal (Illumination’s parent company). There has been plenty of family pics over the last couple of months and The Grinch will get plenty more competition in following weekends. Both Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald and Ralph Breaks the Internet are on deck.
That said, Illumination has had an impressive track record during this decade with the Despicable Me/Minions franchise and Pets. This is their first foray into the month of November, but plenty of other studios have planted their animated flag into the same time frame. In 2012, Wreck-It Ralph took in $49 million for its start. Two years later, Big Hero 6 made $56 million. In 2015, The Peanuts Movie started with $44 million and Trolls premiered to $46 million a year later. Yet the best comp could end up being 2000’s How the Grinch Stole Christmas, which bowed to $55 million. I’ll put it just over that as this Grinch looks to leg out well throughout the holiday season.
The Grinch opening weekend prediction: $63.4 million
For my The Girl in the Spider’s Web prediction, click here:
There’s only one new major release this weekend hitting multiplexes, but it’s a big one in the form of Spider-Man: Homecoming. This is the third iteration of the beloved web slinger with Tom Holland inheriting the tights after his cameo in Captain America: Civil War. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Spidey should easily rule the charts this weekend and my prediction puts it a couple million above what the original accomplished 15 years ago.
As for holdovers, Despicable Me 3 had a somewhat disappointing debut (more on that below) and I look for it to lose nearly half its audience in the sophomore frame.
Baby Driver, on the other hand, was quite a breakout hit and word of mouth is strong. Its drop-off shouldn’t be as pronounced. Wonder Woman and Transformers look to round out the top five.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend ahead:
1. Spider-Man: Homecoming
Predicted Gross: $117.8 million
2. Despicable Me 3
Predicted Gross: $36.3 million (representing a drop of 49%)
3. Baby Driver
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. Wonder Woman
Predicted Gross: $9.9 million (representing a drop of 37%)
5. Transformers: The Last Knight
Predicted Gross: $7 million (representing a drop of 58%)
Box Office Results (June 30-July 2)
Illumination Entertainment’s Despicable Me 3 earned an estimated $72.4 million, which easily placed it first. However, this was easily $10 million below most of the lowest guesstimates. I projected a higher haul at $88.7M.
Edgar Wright’s critically acclaimed Baby Driver greatly exceeded expectations with a $20.5 million Friday to Sunday gross and a cool $29.5 million since its Wednesday opening. This blew away my respective predictions of $10.9M and $15.8M and proved that audiences are hungry for programming in the summer that isn’t a sequel or reboot.
Transformers: The Last Knight slipped to third with $16.8 million (in line with my $17.4M forecast) for a $102M total.
Wonder Woman was close behind in fourth with $15.7 million (I said $14.5M) to bring its massive earnings to $346M.
Cars 3 rounded out the top five with $9.6 million (I was higher at $12.1M) for a $120M overall gross.
The poorly reviewed Will Ferrell/Amy Poehler comedy The House was DOA in sixth place, earning only $8.7 million for its start (I said $13.8M).
Finally, Sofia Coppola’s The Beguiled expanded its theater count and took in $3.1 million compared to my $3.8M prediction.
Illumination Entertainment’s blockbuster animated franchise is back on screen next weekend as Despicable Me 3 debuts. The series returns the voices of Steve Carell and Kristin Wiig, as well as Trey Parker, Steve Coogan, Julie Andrews, and Jenny Slate.
The Despicable flicks began in 2010 when the original debuted to $56 million and a $251 million eventual domestic haul. The 2013 sequel reached higher with an $83 million premiere (8th largest animated opening ever) and $368 million overall. Two summers ago, the spin-off Minions opened to an amazing $115 million (good for 3rd animated debut all-time) and $336 million overall.
Will part 3 continue the upward swing as far as openings go? Probably not. As I see it, kids and their folks will still come out in droves. Illumination would love to see this open with the $104 million achieved by last summer’s The Secret Life of Pets and it’s certainly possible. However, I foresee a start roughly on par with part 2 and maybe a bit higher. My forecast gives it the 8th biggest animated opening, supplanting its predecessor.
Despicable Me 3 opening weekend prediction: $88.7 million
Illumination Entertainment has become a force in the animated world with huge hits including the Despicable Me franchise, spin-off Minions, and this summer’s The Secret Life of Pets.
They’re back at it again looking for a Christmas cash in with 3D animated musical Sing. The $75 million production should have no trouble bringing in kids and their parents over the holiday season. Singing animals is usually a decent formula for a blockbuster and this should be a strong #2 to the second weekend of Rogue One. There’s plenty of recognizable faces behind their characters including Matthew McConaughey, Reese Witherspoon, Scarlett Johansson, Seth MacFarlane, John C. Reilly, Taron Egerton, and Nick Kroll.
I’ll predict Sing takes in high 40s during the long holiday weekend while reaching mid 60s when you include its Wednesday debut.
Sing opening weekend prediction: $55.3 million (Friday to Monday), $74.1 million (Wednesday to Monday)
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