Tag: It

Todd’s 2017 Weekly Oscar Predictions: November 2nd Edition

Thursday is here and that means my weekly Oscar predictions have kicked off for the month of November!

And that, ladies and gentlemen, means some changes have arrived. I am now expanding to include every category covering feature-length movies and listing my most likely possibilities in each. Additionally, I am slimming down the Best Picture possibilities from 25 to 15 and now just 10 instead of 15 in the other races.

There are a couple of revisions shown below I would like to cover. First, Steven Spielberg’s The Post has been high on my list for weeks. However, persistent rumors abound that it may not be the surefire contender that it appears to be on paper. Therefore, it’s taken a hit this week. I still have it listed for Picture and Actress (Meryl Streep), but it’s fallen out of my predicted nominees in other categories.

Another change is one that intersects with the news of the day and it cannot be ignored. Due to recent allegations that have surfaced in the last few days, there is little question that Kevin Spacey’s chances for Supporting Actor in All the Money in the World have potentially disappeared. That revision is also reflected today.

Now, for the first time, my thoughts on all the races for the 2017 Oscars:

Best Picture

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk (Previous Ranking: 1)

2. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

4. Mudbound (PR: 8)

5. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

7. The Florida Project (PR: 7)

8. The Post (PR: 3)

9. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

Other Possibilities:

10. Lady Bird (PR: 10)

11. I, Tonya (PR: 11)

12. Phantom Thread (PR: 13)

13. Last Flag Flying (PR: 15)

14. Detroit (PR: 12)

15. Get Out (PR: 14)

Dropped Out:

Battle of the Sexes

Downsizing

The Greatest Showman

The Big Sick

All the Money in the World

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Wonderstruck

Molly’s Game

Wind River

Coco

Best Director

Predicted Nominees:

1. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (PR: 1)

2. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

3. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (PR: 4)

4. Dee Rees, Mudbound (PR: 8)

5. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 6)

7. Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 7)

8. Steven Spielberg, The Post (PR: 3)

9. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (PR: 10)

10. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit

Jordan Peele, Get Out

Richard Linklater, Last Flag Flying

Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya

Best Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (PR: 1)

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (PR: 2)

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (PR: 6)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Andrew Garfield, Breathe (PR: 7)

7. Tom Hanks, The Post (PR: 5)

8. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (PR: 8)

9. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)

10. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel Esq. (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Christian Bale, Hostiles

Matt Damon, Downsizing

Jeremy Renner, Wind River

Algee Smith, Detroit

Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick

Best Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

2. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (PR: 3)

3. Meryl Streep, The Post (PR: 1)

4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 4)

5. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (PR: 6)

7. Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (PR: 8)

8. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (PR: 7)

9. Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (PR: 9)

10. Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman

Brooklyn Prince, The Florida Project

Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool

Diane Kruger, In the Fade

Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

Best Supporting Actor

Predicted Nominees:

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (PR: 1)

2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 2)

3. Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 3)

4. Mark Rylance, Dunkirk (PR: 4)

5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name (PR: 6)

7. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (PR: 8)

9. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (PR: 12)

10. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Kevin Spacey, All the Money in the World

Will Poulter, Detroit

Christoph Waltz, Downsizing

Patrick Stewart, Logan

Idris Elba, Molly’s Game

Best Supporting Actress

Predicted Nominees:

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (PR: 1)

2. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (PR: 2)

3. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (PR: 3)

4. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (PR: 5)

5. Hong Chau, Downsizing (PR: 4)

Other Possibilities:

6. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (PR: 6)

7. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (PR: 7)

8. Claire Foy, Breathe (PR: 8)

9. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (PR: 9)

10. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (PR: 10)

Dropped Out:

Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled

Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck

Tatiana Maslany, Stronger

Millicent Simmonds, Wonderstruck

Sarah Paulson, The Post

Best Adapted Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. Call Me by Your Name (PR: 1)

2. Mudbound (PR: 2)

3. Last Flag Flying (PR: 4)

4. Molly’s Game (PR: 3)

5. Victoria and Abdul (PR: 6)

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck (PR: 5)

7. The Beguiled (PR: 8)

8. The Disaster Artist (PR: 7)

9. Stronger (PR: 10)

10. Blade Runner 2049 (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

All the Money in the World

Thank You for Your Service

First, They Killed My Father

The Death of Stalin

Wonder

Best Original Screenplay

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water (PR: 2)

2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (PR: 1)

3. Darkest Hour (PR: 3)

4. The Florida Project (PR: 4)

5. Lady Bird (PR: 5)

Other Possibilities:

6. The Big Sick (PR: 7)

7. Get Out (PR: 8)

8. The Post (PR: 6)

9. Dunkirk (PR: 10)

10. I, Tonya (PR: 9)

Dropped Out:

Phantom Thread

Downsizing

Wind River

Battle of the Sexes

Coco

Best Foreign Language Film

Predicted Nominees:

1. BPM (Beats Per Minute)

2. In the Fade

3. First, They Killed My Father

4. Happy End

5. Foxtrot

Other Possibilities:

6. The Square

7. A Fantastic Woman

8. Loveless

9. The Divine Order

10. Tom of Finland

Best Animated Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. Coco

2. The Breadwinner

3. Loving Vincent

4. Birdbag: The Forgotten Children

5. Ferdinand

Other Possibilities:

6. The LEGO Batman Movie

7. Cars 3

8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

9. Despicable Me 3

10. The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales

Best Documentary Feature

Predicted Nominees:

1. City of Ghosts

2. Risk

3. Icarus

4. Cries from Syria

5. Jane

Other Possibilities:

6. Step

7. The Death and Life of Marsha P. Johnson

8. Dina

9. One of Us

10. Kedi

Best Film Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk

2. The Shape of Water

3. Darkest Hour

4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

5. Mudbound

Other Possibilities:

6. Blade Runner 2049

7. The Post

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

9. Call Me by Your Name

10. Detroit

Best Cinematography

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049

2. Dunkirk

3. The Shape of Water

4. Darkest Hour

5. Phantom Thread

Other Possibilities:

6. Wonderstruck

7. Mudbound

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

9. Wonder Wheel

10. The Greatest Showman

Best Production Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. The Shape of Water

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. Darkest Hour

4. Phantom Thread

5. Dunkirk

Other Possibilities:

6. Beauty and the Beast

7. The Greatest Showman

8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

9. Wonder Wheel

10. Call My by Your Name

Best Costume Design

Predicted Nominees:

1. Phantom Thread

2. Beauty and the Beast

3. Darkest Hour

4. The Greatest Showman

5. Victoria and Abdul

Other Possibilities:

6. Blade Runner 2049

7. The Beguiled

8. Wonder Wheel

9. The Post

10. Murder on the Orient Express

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour

2. The Shape of Water

3. Phantom Thread

Other Possibilities:

4. The Greatest Showman

5. I, Tonya

6. Beauty and the Beast

7. Thor: Ragnarok

8. Blade Runner 2049

9. It

10. Wonderstruck

Best Visual Effects

Predicted Nominees:

1. Blade Runner 2049

2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

3. War for the Planet of the Apes

4. The Shape of Water

5. Dunkirk

Other Possibilities:

6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

7. Beauty and the Beast

8. Wonder Woman

9. Thor: Ragnarok

10. Kong: Skull Island

Best Sound Editing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4. Wonder Woman

5. Transformers: The Last Knight

Other Possibilities:

6. The Shape of Water

7. Coco

8. Detroit

9. Baby Driver

10. War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Sound Mixing

Predicted Nominees:

1. Dunkirk

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4. The Shape of Water

5. The Greatest Showman

Other Possibilities:

6. Baby Driver

7. Detroit

8. Transformers: The Last Knight

9. Darkest Hour

10. Coco

Best Original Score

Predicted Nominees:

1. Darkest Hour

2. Dunkirk

3. The Shape of Water

4. Wonderstruck

5. Coco

Other Possibilities:

6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

7. The Post

8. Blade Runner 2049

9. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

10. The Greatest Showman

Best Original Song

Predicted Nominees:

1. “Remember Me” from Coco

2. “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall

3. “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever” from Fifty Shades Darker

4. “Evermore” from Beauty and the Beast

5. “Come Alive” from The Greatest Showman

Other Possibilities:

6. “Prayers for this World” from Cries from Syria

7. “It Ain’t Fair” from Detroit

8. “The Promise” from The Promise

9. “This is Me” from The Greatest Showman

10. “To Be Human” from Wonder Woman

And that leaves my inaugural breakdown for number of nominations by each picture:

12 Nominations

The Shape of Water

11 Nominations

Darkest Hour

10 Nominations

Dunkirk

6 Nominations

Blade Runner 2049

5 Nominations

Call Me by Your Name, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Phantom Thread

4 Nominations

Mudbound, The Greatest Showman

3 Nominations

The Florida Project, Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2 Nominations

The Post, I, Tonya, Lady Bird, Victoria and Abdul, Beauty and the Beast

1 Nomination

Stronger, Battle of the Sexes, Novitiate, Downsizing, Last Flag Flying, Molly’s Game, First, They Killed My Father, In the Fade, BPM (Beats Per Minute), Happy End, A Fantastic Woman, The Breadwinner, Loving Vincent, Birdbag: The Forgotten Children, Ferdinand, City of Ghosts, Risk, Icarus, Cries from Syria, Jane, War for the Planet of the Apes, Wonder Woman, Transformers: The Last Knight, Wonderstruck, Marshall, Fifty Shades Darker 

Box Office Predictions: October 20-22

Blogger’s Update (10/19): Making some further adjustments. Boo 2! from $23.8M to $22.6M, Only the Brave from the $12.3M to $10M, and Geostorm from $11.6M to $11.2M.

Blogger’s Update (10/18): I am revising some predictions. I now have Happy Death Day falling over 50% for a third place showing and am estimating The Snowman from $10.8 million to $8 million.

We have an extremely busy weekend ahead with four new pictures looking to join the top five. They are the Tyler Perry holiday themed sequel Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, firefighter drama Only the Brave, disaster action flick Geostorm, and Michael Fassbender thriller The Snowman. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/11/boo-2-a-madea-halloween-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/11/only-the-brave-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/12/geostorm-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/12/the-snowman-box-office-prediction/

While I don’t have Boo 2! earning quite as much as its predecessor from last October, it shouldn’t have much trouble debuting at #1 as Perry’s fan base should show up.

It’s the 2-5 spots that could be really interesting. Current champ Happy Death Day scored a terrific debut and may not even fall 50% due to the Halloween proximity and decent buzz.

Only the Brave is receiving positive reviews and I’m forecasting it will premiere slightly above both Geostorm and The Snowman. All in all, I only have $3.1 million separating the runner-up to first place and the five spot.

There is one other debut as the Pure Flix feature Same Kind of Different as Me with Greg Kinnear and Renee Zellweger opens on a fairly low 1250 screens. I don’t expect much from it and I’ll estimate a $2.6 million take.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween

Predicted Gross: $22.6 million

2. Happy Death Day

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (representing a drop of 55%)

3. Geostorm

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. Only the Brave

Predicted Gross: $10 million

5. The Snowman

Predicted Gross: $8 million

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Fvo0f2NrDyI

Box Office Results (October 13–15)

Friday the 13th was a lucky day and it was a lucky weekend for Happy Death Day, the latest hit from Blumhouse. The well-reviewed horror pic scared up a sizzling $26 million compared to my $20.6M projection, more than five times its tiny budget. With Split and Get Out having scored megabucks earlier this year for its studio, Blumhouse has announced itself as the premiere distributor for these genre titles.

Blade Runner 2049 dropped to second with $15.4 million. My prediction? $15.4 million! The sci fi epic sequel’s disappointing earnings sit at $60 million.

Jackie Chan’s The Foreigner opened at the greater end of expectations with a sturdy $13.1 million, easily eclipsing my $8.8M prediction.

It was fourth with $6 million. My prediction? $6 million! It’s made $314 million.

The Mountain Between Us rounded out the top five with $5.7 million. My prediction? $5.7 million! Its two week total is $20 million. So I’ll give myself a pat on the back for my holdover guesses this weekend!

Lastly, the Chadwick Boseman biopic Marshall opened rather quietly in 11th place with $3 million (I was a bit higher at $4M).

Box Office Predictions: October 13-15

After a weekend where no new releases performed particularly well, we could be in for a similar situation this weekend. Though one newbie should manage to just clear $20 million. We have low-budget horror pic Happy Death Day, Jackie Chan action thriller The Foreigner, and Chadwick Boseman led biopic Marshall debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/04/happy-death-day-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/05/the-foreigner-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/05/marshall-box-office-prediction/

The October Friday the 13th should bode rather well for Happy Death Day. With the underwhelming performance of Blade Runner 2049 (more on that below), I have Death slated for a first place showing in the low 20s and it could climb a bit higher.

Blade should slip to the runner-up position with The Foreigner in third. I have holdovers It and The Mountain Between Us rounding out the top five.

Marshall is only premiering on approximately 800 screens and my $4 million estimate for it puts it well outside the top 5. There is another apparent wide debut with Professor Marston & the Wonder Women. It stars Luke Evans and Rebecca Hall in the true life story of the man who created Wonder Woman. While it’s timed to capitalize on the summer’s biggest blockbuster, I’ll say it only manages maybe $2 million (there’s no theater count so I may revise that figure).

And with that, my top five projections for the weekend:

1. Happy Death Day

Predicted Gross: $20.6 million

2. Blade Runner 2049

Predicted Gross: $15.4 million (representing a drop of 53%)

3. The Foreigner

Predicted Gross: $8.8 million

4. It

Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 40%)

5. The Mountain Between Us

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 46%)

Box Office Results (October 6–8)

As mentioned, pricey long time in the making sequel Blade Runner 2049 stalled in its opening weekend with $32.7 million, well below all expectations including my own $52.1M forecast. Despite glowing reviews, audiences simply didn’t come out for it as expected.

The Kate Winslet/Idris Elba disaster romance The Mountain Between Us debuted in second with a so-so $10.5 million, just above my $9.2M prediction.

It was third with $9.9 million (I said $9.3M) as it crossed the triple century mark at $305 million overall.

My Little Pony: The Movie was fourth out of the gate with just $8.8 million, under my $10.9M estimate.

Kingsman: The Golden Circle rounded out the top five with $8.6 million (I predicted $8M) for $80 million total.

In weekend #2, Tom Cruise’s American Made fell to sixth with $8.4 million compared to my $8.9M projection. It’s earned $30 million in ten days.

And that does it for now! Until next time…

Happy Death Day Box Office Prediction

Timing is sometimes everything at the box office and that factor could boost Happy Death Day to a lively opening. The pic is essentially a horror version of Groundhog Day with a woman waking on the same day that happens to be the date of her demise. Christopher B. Landon, who last made Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, directs with a cast made up of relative unknowns including Jessica Rothe and Israel Broussard.

Death comes from Blumhouse Productions, which specializes in low-budget genre flicks. 2017 has been a very happy year for the studio, with fright pic breakouts Split and Get Out. The budget is reportedly just a teeny $5 million. Regarding its release date, it has the benefit of premiering on a Friday the 13th in October (a good month for the genre). It should also help that It is finally slowing down at multiplexes, so genre enthusiasts may be ready for another horror fix.

High teens to possibly low 20s seems reachable here.

Happy Death Day opening weekend prediction: $20.6 million

For my The Foreigner prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/05/the-foreigner-box-office-prediction/

For my Marshall prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/10/05/marshall-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: October 6-8

Blogger’s Note (10/04/17) – I’ve changed predictions for nearly every film here… UPDATED PROJECTIONS REFLECTED BELOW

After a tight battle for #1 this past weekend between three pictures, there’s little no doubt as to what opens on top this coming weekend with Blade Runner 2049 hitting screens. We also have the Kate Winslet/Idris Elba disaster pic/romance The Mountain Between Us and animated My Little Pony: The Movie debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/26/blade-runner-2049-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/27/the-mountain-between-us-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/28/my-little-pony-the-movie-box-office-prediction/

As mentioned, the glowing reviews for Blade Runner 2049 and the feeling of it being a bit of an event picture has me projecting a mid 40s opening. That should give it lots of space at #1 ahead of all competitors.

After that, it gets murky. I have Mountain slated at #2, but its middling reviews could be a hindrance to it reaching double digits (which I barely have it reaching).

When it comes to My Little Pony, my $8.2 million estimate is basically a middle ground figure as I could easily see it slightly over or under performing. That number puts it right in the mix of where It, American Made, and Kingsman: The Golden Circle might be. Bottom line: numbers 2-6 on the chart this weekend could be awfully close.

And with that, my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Blade Runner 2049

Predicted Gross: $52.1 million

2. My Little Pony: The Movie

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

3. It

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. The Mountain Between Us

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million

5. American Made

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)

6. Kingsman: The Golden Circle

Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 53%)

Box Office Results (September 29-October 1)

It is really the sole reason why this September’s box office was a record one and so it seems fitting that the horror flick nearly returned to the #1 position as the month ended. The pic earned $16.9 million (ahead of my $15.1M estimate) to bring its total to $290 million.

Yet it was Kingsman: The Golden Circle that barely remained on top as it also made $16.9 million (I said $17.6M) for a two-week tally of $66 million.

Tom Cruise’s American Made debuted in third with a just OK $16.7 million compared to my $15.5M prediction. Its best hope is for smallish declines in future frames.

The Lego Ninjago Movie dropped to fourth with $11.6 million (I said $12.6M) to bring its disappointing total to $35 million.

Flatliners did just that in its premiere in fifth, earning a sleepy $6.5 million, on pace with my $6.3M forecast.

In its wider expansion, Battle of the Sexes underwhelmed in sixth with only $3.4 million, below my $5.2M estimate.

And that does it for now! Until next time…

 

 

Box Office Predictions: September 29-October 1

A record breaking September (thanks to a certain clown) draws to a close in a busy weekend with the two highest profile debuts being Tom Cruise’s American Made and sci-fi horror remake/sequel Flatliners. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both of them here:

American Made Box Office Prediction

Flatliners Box Office Prediction

They aren’t the only newbies this weekend. There’s the thriller ‘Til Death Do Us Part with Taye Diggs and Christian themed drama A Question of Faith. As of this writing, there are screen counts on neither. As I see it, both could potentially over perform, but I’ll say $2.8 million for Death and $1.2 million for Faith. Those numbers could change, but right now it puts both well outside the top 5.

There could be a real battle for #1. If American Made manages to debut in the high teens to low 20s, it should capture that spot. However, my mid teens estimated debut puts it in the runner-up spot behind the second weekend of Kingsman: The Golden Circle. I expect Circle to experience a larger drop than the 49% one that its predecessor had. It should fall one spot to third.

With a considerably lower than anticipated opening, The Lego Ninjago Movie is likely to be fourth, though it may have a smallish decline due to lack of family options.

This brings us to the five spot. I am not expecting much out of Flatliners and the Emma Stone/Steve Carell Oscar hopeful Battle of the Sexes is expanding to over 1000 screens. I believe that could create a close race between them, though I’ll give Flatliners the edge.

And with that, I’ll do a top 6 predictions this weekend:

1. Kingsman: The Golden Circle

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million (representing a drop of 55%)

2. American Made

Predicted Gross: $15.5 million

3. It

Predicted Gross: $15.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)

4. The Lego Ninjago Movie

Predicted Gross: $12.6 million (representing a drop of 37%)

5. Flatliners

Predicted Gross: $6.3 million

6. Battle of the Sexes

Predicted Gross: $5.2 million

Box Office Results (September 22-24)

Kingsman: The Golden Circle took the gold this weekend with $39 million, a touch below my $43.6M projection. The sequel to the acclaimed 2015 sleeper hit didn’t receive the critical appreciation of the first, but it did manage to open slightly above its predecessor’s $36 million.

It dropped to second after two weeks on top with $29.7 million (I was right there with my $29.8M forecast) for a staggering tally of $266 million overall.

While Warner Bros has been celebrating the considerable accomplishments of Pennywise and The Losers, there was little to boast about with The Lego Ninjago Movie. The animated feature opened to just $20.4 million in third – way below my $38.6M estimate. The studio better hope its non spin-off sequel to 2014’s The Lego Movie gets the franchise back on track.

American Assassin was fourth in its sophomore frame at $6.2 million (I said $6.9M) for $26 million total.

mother! rounded out the top five with $3.2 million for a meager $13M total and I incorrectly had it outside the top five.

That’s because I gave far too much credit to the horror pic Friend Request. I pegged it at $5.7 million, but it managed just $2 million for seventh place. One wonders if It is simply sucking the oxygen out of any genre competition (it’s part of the reason I have Flatliners rather low).

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Flatliners Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (09/24) – My estimate for Flatliners continues to drop. I’m now putting it at just $6.3 million.

It isn’t the only September remake of a 1990 horror pic as Flatliners debuts in theaters next weekend. The film finds 5 medical students dangerously experimenting with near-death experiences with a cast that includes Ellen Page, Diego Luna, and Nina Dobrev. This is actually more of a sequel than remake to 1990’s version that was directed by Joel Schumacher and starred Julia Roberts, fresh off breakout Pretty Woman. Kiefer Sutherland, who costarred in the first, returns.

The original Flatliners probably benefited from Julia’s mega watt star power at the time. I don’t believe there’s an enormous amount of reverance for it. Sony Pictures best hope is that horror audiences who gobbled up It might be ready for something else.

That could be a tall order. I’m predicting Flatliners doesn’t hit double digits out of the gate.

Flatliners opening weekend prediction: $6.3 million

For my American Made prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/20/american-made-box-office-prediction/

 

 

Box Office Predictions: September 22-24

The two-week reign of Pennywise atop the box office looks to float away this weekend as three new pictures debut: Matthew Vaughn’s action/comedy sequel Kingsman: The Golden Circle, animated action/comedy spin-off The Lego Ninjago Movie, and supernatural horror flick Friend Request. You can view my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/13/kingsman-the-golden-circle-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/13/the-lego-ninjago-movie-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/17/friend-request-box-office-prediction/

There is some question as to whether Kingsman or Ninjago take the top spot. I’m estimating the former will outdo the latter by approximately $5 million.

The continued amazing grosses of It could mean that three movies will top $30 million this weekend, but that demented clown should be right on the edge of that gross with an anticipated drop of around 50%.

American Assassin should slip to fourth place and I have Friend Request managing to round out the top five, albeit with a muted debut.

And with that, my top 5 estimates for the weekend:

1. Kingsman: The Golden Circle

Predicted Gross: $43.6 million

2. The Lego Ninjago Movie

Predicted Gross: $38.6 million

3. It

Predicted Gross: $29.8 million (representing a drop of 50%)

4. American Assassin

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 53%)

5. Friend Request

Predicted Gross: $5.7 million

Box Office Results (September 15-17) 

It continued its startling run after its record breaking opening with $60.1 million in its second weekend, in line with my $59M forecast. The juggernaut has amassed an incredible $218 million in its ten days of existence.

American Assassin with Dylan O’Brien and Michael Keaton was runner-up with a respectable $14.8 million, topping my $13.2M prediction. That might not be enough to justify a franchise, but you never know.

Darren Aronofsky’s instantly controversial mother! with Jennifer Lawrence sputtered in third with $7.5 million. I was considerably higher with a $14.7M projection. While critics were mostly kind (68% on Rotten Tomatoes), audiences rendered their verdict with both their money and CinemaScore grade (an F, which is practically unprecedented). Expect mother! to take a massive tumble this coming weekend as well with the toxic word-of-mouth.

Reese Witherspoon’s Home Again held up decently in its sophomore weekend at #4 with $5.1 million compared to my $4.5M estimate. The rom com has grossed nearly $17 million so thus far.

The Hitman’s Bodyguard was fifth with $3.5 million (I said $2.6M) to bring its total to $70 million.

And that does it for now, ladies and gents! Until next time…

Friend Request Box Office Prediction

It’s been a big year for horror flicks and Warner Bros is hoping its recent success in the genre extends to Friend Request, opening next weekend. The social media related supernatural pic is from director Simon Verhoeven (fun fact: Wikipedia is currently listing Denis Villeneuve as the man behind the camera… not remotely true). The young cast includes Alycia Debnam-Carey, William Moseley, and Brit Morgan.

Friend Request is hitting a surprisingly high 3000 screens as it has some serious competition preventing audiences from liking it. Box Office phenomenon It (also WB) will be in its third weekend and still posting hefty grosses. Kingsman: The Golden Circle is premiering and targeting younger moviegoers as well. I don’t believe the $15 million debut of the similarly plotted Unfriended from 2015 is possible.

I’ll estimate moviegoers generally don’t respond to this Request with an opening between $5-6 million.

Friend Request opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million

For my Kingsman: The Golden Circle prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/13/kingsman-the-golden-circle-box-office-prediction/

For my The Lego Ninjago Movie prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/13/the-lego-ninjago-movie-box-office-prediction/

The Lego Ninjago Movie Box Office Prediction

The second spin-off from 2014’s blockbuster (get it?) The Lego Movie, next weekend we have The Lego Ninjago Movie. It’s based on the popular toy line with a martial arts flavor. The animated action/comedy features the voices of Dave Franco, Justin Theroux, Kumail Nanjiani, Michael Pena, Fred Armisen, Olivia Munn, and Jackie Chan.

Ninjago will attempt to retain a good portion of the family audience and Lego lovers that populated The Lego Movie. That feature opened to $69 million in February 2014 with an eventual $257M domestic haul. First spin-off The Lego Batman Movie couldn’t quite match those numbers. It made $53 million for its start and ended up with $175M.

My feeling is that this will continue the downward trend, but still post respectable earnings. It will also have the benefit of having nothing in the way of major family audience competition for several weeks, so holdovers could be pleasing. As for its opening, Ninjago could find itself in a fierce battle for #1 with Kingsman: The Golden Circle. It’s also worth mentioning that It will only be in weekend #3 and still posting big numbers.

The Lego version of Batman was off nearly 25% out of the gate from The Lego Movie. If you applied that here, we’re talking an approximate $40 million debut. That sounds just about right and perhaps a tad under.

The Lego Ninjago Movie opening weekend prediction: $38.6 million

For my Kingsman: The Golden Circle prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/13/kingsman-the-golden-circle-box-office-prediction/

For my Friend Request prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/17/friend-request-box-office-prediction/