Box Office Predictions: October 20-22

Blogger’s Update (10/19): Making some further adjustments. Boo 2! from $23.8M to $22.6M, Only the Brave from the $12.3M to $10M, and Geostorm from $11.6M to $11.2M.

Blogger’s Update (10/18): I am revising some predictions. I now have Happy Death Day falling over 50% for a third place showing and am estimating The Snowman from $10.8 million to $8 million.

We have an extremely busy weekend ahead with four new pictures looking to join the top five. They are the Tyler Perry holiday themed sequel Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, firefighter drama Only the Brave, disaster action flick Geostorm, and Michael Fassbender thriller The Snowman. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:

While I don’t have Boo 2! earning quite as much as its predecessor from last October, it shouldn’t have much trouble debuting at #1 as Perry’s fan base should show up.

It’s the 2-5 spots that could be really interesting. Current champ Happy Death Day scored a terrific debut and may not even fall 50% due to the Halloween proximity and decent buzz.

Only the Brave is receiving positive reviews and I’m forecasting it will premiere slightly above both Geostorm and The Snowman. All in all, I only have $3.1 million separating the runner-up to first place and the five spot.

There is one other debut as the Pure Flix feature Same Kind of Different as Me with Greg Kinnear and Renee Zellweger opens on a fairly low 1250 screens. I don’t expect much from it and I’ll estimate a $2.6 million take.

And with that, my top 5 predictions for the weekend:

1. Boo 2! A Madea Halloween

Predicted Gross: $22.6 million

2. Happy Death Day

Predicted Gross: $11.8 million (representing a drop of 55%)

3. Geostorm

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

4. Only the Brave

Predicted Gross: $10 million

5. The Snowman

Predicted Gross: $8 million

Box Office Results (October 1315)

Friday the 13th was a lucky day and it was a lucky weekend for Happy Death Day, the latest hit from Blumhouse. The well-reviewed horror pic scared up a sizzling $26 million compared to my $20.6M projection, more than five times its tiny budget. With Split and Get Out having scored megabucks earlier this year for its studio, Blumhouse has announced itself as the premiere distributor for these genre titles.

Blade Runner 2049 dropped to second with $15.4 million. My prediction? $15.4 million! The sci fi epic sequel’s disappointing earnings sit at $60 million.

Jackie Chan’s The Foreigner opened at the greater end of expectations with a sturdy $13.1 million, easily eclipsing my $8.8M prediction.

It was fourth with $6 million. My prediction? $6 million! It’s made $314 million.

The Mountain Between Us rounded out the top five with $5.7 million. My prediction? $5.7 million! Its two week total is $20 million. So I’ll give myself a pat on the back for my holdover guesses this weekend!

Lastly, the Chadwick Boseman biopic Marshall opened rather quietly in 11th place with $3 million (I was a bit higher at $4M).

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