After a weekend where no new releases performed particularly well, we could be in for a similar situation this weekend. Though one newbie should manage to just clear $20 million. We have low-budget horror pic Happy Death Day, Jackie Chan action thriller The Foreigner, and Chadwick Boseman led biopic Marshall debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
The October Friday the 13th should bode rather well for Happy Death Day. With the underwhelming performance of Blade Runner 2049 (more on that below), I have Death slated for a first place showing in the low 20s and it could climb a bit higher.
Blade should slip to the runner-up position with The Foreigner in third. I have holdovers It and The Mountain Between Us rounding out the top five.
Marshall is only premiering on approximately 800 screens and my $4 million estimate for it puts it well outside the top 5. There is another apparent wide debut with Professor Marston & the Wonder Women. It stars Luke Evans and Rebecca Hall in the true life story of the man who created Wonder Woman. While it’s timed to capitalize on the summer’s biggest blockbuster, I’ll say it only manages maybe $2 million (there’s no theater count so I may revise that figure).
And with that, my top five projections for the weekend:
1. Happy Death Day
Predicted Gross: $20.6 million
2. Blade Runner 2049
Predicted Gross: $15.4 million (representing a drop of 53%)
3. The Foreigner
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 40%)
5. The Mountain Between Us
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 46%)
Box Office Results (October 6–8)
As mentioned, pricey long time in the making sequel Blade Runner 2049 stalled in its opening weekend with $32.7 million, well below all expectations including my own $52.1M forecast. Despite glowing reviews, audiences simply didn’t come out for it as expected.
The Kate Winslet/Idris Elba disaster romance The Mountain Between Us debuted in second with a so-so $10.5 million, just above my $9.2M prediction.
It was third with $9.9 million (I said $9.3M) as it crossed the triple century mark at $305 million overall.
My Little Pony: The Movie was fourth out of the gate with just $8.8 million, under my $10.9M estimate.
Kingsman: The Golden Circle rounded out the top five with $8.6 million (I predicted $8M) for $80 million total.
In weekend #2, Tom Cruise’s American Made fell to sixth with $8.4 million compared to my $8.9M projection. It’s earned $30 million in ten days.
And that does it for now! Until next time…