Box Office Predictions: October 6-8

Blogger’s Note (10/04/17) – I’ve changed predictions for nearly every film here… UPDATED PROJECTIONS REFLECTED BELOW

After a tight battle for #1 this past weekend between three pictures, there’s little no doubt as to what opens on top this coming weekend with Blade Runner 2049 hitting screens. We also have the Kate Winslet/Idris Elba disaster pic/romance The Mountain Between Us and animated My Little Pony: The Movie debuting. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/26/blade-runner-2049-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/27/the-mountain-between-us-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/09/28/my-little-pony-the-movie-box-office-prediction/

As mentioned, the glowing reviews for Blade Runner 2049 and the feeling of it being a bit of an event picture has me projecting a mid 40s opening. That should give it lots of space at #1 ahead of all competitors.

After that, it gets murky. I have Mountain slated at #2, but its middling reviews could be a hindrance to it reaching double digits (which I barely have it reaching).

When it comes to My Little Pony, my $8.2 million estimate is basically a middle ground figure as I could easily see it slightly over or under performing. That number puts it right in the mix of where It, American Made, and Kingsman: The Golden Circle might be. Bottom line: numbers 2-6 on the chart this weekend could be awfully close.

And with that, my top 6 projections for the weekend ahead:

1. Blade Runner 2049

Predicted Gross: $52.1 million

2. My Little Pony: The Movie

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

3. It

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 45%)

4. The Mountain Between Us

Predicted Gross: $9.2 million

5. American Made

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)

6. Kingsman: The Golden Circle

Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 53%)

Box Office Results (September 29-October 1)

It is really the sole reason why this September’s box office was a record one and so it seems fitting that the horror flick nearly returned to the #1 position as the month ended. The pic earned $16.9 million (ahead of my $15.1M estimate) to bring its total to $290 million.

Yet it was Kingsman: The Golden Circle that barely remained on top as it also made $16.9 million (I said $17.6M) for a two-week tally of $66 million.

Tom Cruise’s American Made debuted in third with a just OK $16.7 million compared to my $15.5M prediction. Its best hope is for smallish declines in future frames.

The Lego Ninjago Movie dropped to fourth with $11.6 million (I said $12.6M) to bring its disappointing total to $35 million.

Flatliners did just that in its premiere in fifth, earning a sleepy $6.5 million, on pace with my $6.3M forecast.

In its wider expansion, Battle of the Sexes underwhelmed in sixth with only $3.4 million, below my $5.2M estimate.

And that does it for now! Until next time…

 

 

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