Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 Box Office Prediction

Warner Bros is hoping Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 is more Dances with Wolves, less The Postman when it comes to Kevin Costner’s behind the camera filmography. The three-hour Western epic is the first of four planned sagas with Chapter 2 slated for mid-August and part 3 shooting. Costner, who has experienced a recent career resurgence thanks to Yellowstone on the small screen, also stars and co-scripts. The large supporting cast includes Sienna Miller, Sam Worthington, Jena Malone, Abbey Lee, Michael Rooker, Danny Huston, Luke Wilson, Isabelle Fuhrman, Jeff Fahey, Will Patton, Tatanka Means, Owen Crow Shoe, Ella Hunt, Jamie Campbell Bower, and Thomas Haden Church.

A May premiere at Cannes yielded shaky buzz. The Rotten Tomatoes score is only 43%. There is no doubt that Horizon is a risky summer proposition. Costner apparently financed the bulk of the project himself.

I do think the Yellowstone exposure could cause this to surprise with a better than expected turnout of older viewers. A best case scenario might be a kickoff in the high teens to low 20s. I’ll hedge my bets and go with low to mid teens.

Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1 opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million

For my A Quiet Place: Day One prediction, click here:

For my Kinds of Kindness prediction, click here:

Oscar Predictions – Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter One

When it comes to Academy possibilities for Kevin Costner’s latest directorial epic, think The Postman more than Dances with Wolves. The latter from 1990 was up for 12 Oscars and took home 7 including Picture and Director. The former was a flop at multiplexes and on the awards circuit.

His latest is Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter One and it has premiered at Cannes ahead of its June 28th theatrical bow. The Western is not only directed by Costner, but he stars and cowrites what is a mostly self-financed project. The large supporting cast includes Sienna Miller, Sam Worthington, Giovanni Ribisi, Danny Huston, Duval Branch, Jena Malone, Abbey Lee, Jamie Campbell Bower, Owen Crow Shoe, Tatanka Means, Luke Wilson, Ella Hunt, Will Patton, Isabelle Fuhrman, Jeff Fahey, and Thomas Haden Church.

I kind of thought Cannes seemed like an odd launch pad for the Yellowstone lead’s first behind the camera big screen production since 2003’s Open Range. Critics have not been kind as evidenced by the 29% Rotten Tomatoes rating.

I’m not sure how much the reviews will hurt its commercial prospects. This could be effective adult counter programming in the summer months and Costner’s visibility from his hit show won’t hurt. Chapter 2 will follow in mid-August. Who knows? Maybe it will garner better notices from cinematic pundits. You can close the book on any Oscar buzz for this first chapter. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…