Adam Sandler’s animated franchise is back in theaters next weekend when HotelTransylvania3: SummerVacation debuts. The Sony Pictures series moves to the summer season after its first two entries managed to set records in the month of September. While its star’s live-action efforts have gone the Netflix route, part 3 looks to score with family audiences in a more crowded marketplace than the parts I and II went up against.
Genndy Tartakovsky is back in the director’s chair. Besides Sandler, returning voices include Andy Samberg, Selena Gomez, Kevin James, David Spade, Steve Buscemi, Keegan-Michael Key, Molly Shannon, Fran Drescher, Mel Brooks and newcomers Kathryn Hahn and Jim Gaffigan.
As mentioned, kids and their parents have been receptive to this 3D monster mash on two occasions. In September 2012, the original premiered to $42.5 million with eventual domestic earnings of $148 million. That set the all-time largest debut for that month. Three years later, HotelTransylvania2 opened in September 2015 and made $48.4 out of the gate to break the month’s record held by its predecessor. It ended up at $169 million. The series held the 1-2 September spot until last year when It obliterated the record.
When it comes to competition for eyeballs, Incredibles2 should be winding down though still grossing in the mid to possibly high teens. Marvel’s Ant–ManandtheWasp will only be in its second weekend and likely going strong. That said, Transylvania has proven itself before and I imagine it too will manage a low to mid 40s start even with the change of seasons. By doing so, that should put it in line for the #1 spot over Ant–Man and the debut of Dwayne Johnson’s Skyscraper.
HotelTransylvania3: SummerVacation opening weekend prediction: $43.6 million
Two new movies debut wide this weekend as It should continue its incredible run on top in its second weekend. The newbies are the Jennifer Lawrence horror thriller mother! and Dylan O’Brien/Michael Keaton CIA action flick American Assassin. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I’m anticipating a close race for second between the newcomers with mother! just edging out Assassin. I look for both to post numbers in the low to mid teens.
And… now to It. I have much more below on its record breaking haul over the weekend which blew away even the most generous forecasts. The question now is how much it falls in its sophomore frame.
As I see it, It should drop around 55% or so according to similarly performing titles. However, the Stephen King adapted pic displayed remarkably sturdy holds over the weekend from Friday to Saturday to Sunday. I believe there’s a chance it doesn’t even quite dip 50%, but I will put it at about 52%.
The rest of the top five should consist of the underwhelming Home Again and The Hitman’s Bodyguard.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:
1. It
Predicted Gross: $59 million (representing a drop of 52%)
2. mother!
Predicted Gross: $14.7 million
3. American Assassin
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Home Again
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million (representing a drop of 47%)
5. The Hitman’s Bodyguard
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million (representing a drop of 46%)
Box Office Results (September 8-10)
It happens and then some! You could see the potential for the horror pic’s opening weekend possibilities growing higher and higher prior to Friday. That said, it was hard to foresee just how huge it would be. It took in an astonishing $123.4 million… I was only $58M off with my $65.4 million estimate.
The film crossed into cultural phenomenon and must-see territory somewhere along the way. It deciminated records. The previous highest September debut held by HotelTransylvania2 at $48 million? It topped that by $75 million. The all-time horror opening record of $52 million by ParanormalActivity3? Bested that by over $70 million.
It also scored the second largest R rated premiere ever behind Deadpool ($132M). As far as 2017 goes, it ranks third – meaning it debuted higher than WonderWoman, Spider–Man: Homecoming and TheFateoftheFurious.
Sometimes a picture manages to catch a wave of anticipation that few can see. It accomplished that and then some. Chapter 2 will be out in two years and expect lots of Stephen King remakes to go into production shortly.
There were other movies playing even if no one else really noticed. The Reese Witherspoon rom com Home Again couldn’t overcome its mostly poor reviews to serve as counter programming to the It juggernaut. It earned just $8.5 million for second, below my $11.3M projection.
The Hitman’s Bodyguard was third after three weeks on top with $4.8 million compared to my $5.4M prediction. It’s earned $64 million overall.
Annabelle: Creation was fourth with $4 million (I said $3.4M) as it nears the century mark with $96 million.
Wind River rounded out the top five with $3.1 million (I said $3.6M) to bring its total to $24 million.
It’s been a rough stretch at the box office in recent weekends and Hollywood’s prescription seems to be… send in the clowns! That happens on September 8th when It unleashes itself into multiplexes. It could set some records along the way.
Based on Stephen King’s acclaimed novel, the Warner Bros pic has been building steady momentum through its creepily effective trailers and TV spots. There’s an entire generation of moviegoers who recall the 1990 miniseries where Tim Curry portrayed demented clown Pennywise. This time around, it’s Swedish actor Bill Skarsgard donning the makeup. Andy Muschietti, who made the well-regarded 2013 horror flick Mama, is behind the camera. The rest of the youthful cast deemed The Losers includes Jaeden Lieberher, Jeremy Ray Taylor, Sophia Lillis, Chosen Jacobs, Jack Dylan Grazer, and Finn Wolfhard (who you may recognize from Netflix’s Stranger Things).
As mentioned, the current rough stretch on the box office charts looks to demolished by this killer clown. Tracking has been rising in recent weeks with It, so much so that the following records could be done away with. The current all-time September best debut is 2015’s Hotel Transylvania 2 with $48 million. When it comes to horror titles in general, that record is held by 2011’s Paranormal Activity 3 at $52 million. If you throw 2001’s Hannibal into that category, that gets you to $58 million.
The current financial slumber in theaters should only help It break out in a major way. Genre enthusiasts should eat this up and crossover appeal based on buzz and solid early word-of-mouth should be significant. I’m predicting It will break all the records mentioned and float north of $60 million for its start.
Warner Bros keeps the onslaught of animated titles being delivered to theaters going with Storks, opening next weekend. The comedic adventure comes from Nicholas Stoller and Doug Sweetland. Mr. Stroller is known for his live-action genre titles like Forgetting Sarah Marshall, Get Him to the Greek, and the Neighbors franchise. The pic features the voices of Andy Samberg, Jennifer Aniston, Keegan-Michael Key, Jordan Peele, Kelsey Grammer, and Ty Burrell.
2016 has been a banner year for animated material with mega-hits like Zootopia, Finding Dory, and The Secret Life of Pets and critically acclaimed fare like Kubo and the Two Strings and Sausage Party. With all those titles mentioned, it’s a distinct possibility that an animated feature will really have to stand out now for family audiences to plunk down their dollars. Whether Storks fits that bill is a legit question.
September has been an occasionally fruitful month for the genre. Hotel Transylvania and its sequel are responsible for the month’s two largest openings at $42 and $48 million, respectively. The two Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs flicks both opened above $30 million. Warner Bros should be ecstatic if Storks manages those numbers.
I don’t believe this will quite reach that level and a debut in the mid to high 20s seems more probable.
Storks opening weekend prediction: $27.9 million
For my The Magnificent Seven prediction, click here:
The box office doldrums over the past couple of weeks should thankfully come to an end with November’s arrival and the release of two very high profile releases: 24th James Bond pic Spectre and Charlie Brown and company returning in the 3D animated The Peanuts Movie. You can read my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
As you’ll see, I have Spectre actually debuting slightly bigger than previous entry Skyfall, though it’s worth noting that some prognosticators have it earning a bit less. We shall see.
The Peanuts Movie should also get off to a sterling start and I expect it to play well into the Thanksgiving season.
The remainder of the top five should be filled with holdover table scraps as the two newbies should dominate the frame.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Spectre
Predicted Gross: $91.3 million
2. The Peanuts Movie
Predicted Gross: $43.4 million
3. The Martian
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)
4. Goosebumps
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 39%)
5. Bridge of Spies
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 31%)
Box Office Results (October 30-November 1)
In a very quiet Halloween weekend at the multiplexes, The Martian retained its #1 spot for the fourth weekend in five frames with $11.7 million (in range with my $10.8M projection) for a total of $183M. The Ridley Scott/Matt Damon collaboration is just the third movie of 2015 to manage a first place showing for 4 weeks (joining American Sniper and Furious 7). Its impressive reign will certainly come to an end with 007 and Snoopy coming in.
Staying in second was Goosebumps with $9.8 million (a bit under my $11.2M estimate) for a solid three week tally of $56M.
Bridge of Spies continued to hold up well from week to week with $8.3 million, on target with my $8.9M projection and its total stands at $45M.
Spots four and five belonged to holdovers that I incorrectly had outside the top five. Hotel Transylvania 2 was fourth with $5.8 million ($156M total gross) and Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter was fifth with $5.1 million for a weak two weekend total of just $19M.
That’s because the three newcomers that opened all posted less than expected results. Bradley Cooper’s Burnt was sixth with just $5 million, below my $8.9M estimate and represents two flops in a row for the actor after this summer’s Aloha.
Sandra Bullock’s critically panned Our Brand Is Crisis gave the actress the worst wide opening of her career with $3.2 million for eighth place, well below my $7.8M prediction.
And, finally, Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse was dead on arrival for a 12th place showing of $1.8 million, under my $4.2M forecast.
This trio of newcomers represents more October flops in a month full of them, including Steve Jobs, The Last Witch Hunter, Pan, Jem and the Holograms, Rock the Kasbah, Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension, and Crimson Peak.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
Three new films open this Halloween weekend and I have every one of them debuting to below $10 million. They are: Bradley Cooper drama Burnt, zombie comedy Scouts Guide to the Zombie Apocalypse, and Sandra Bullock political comedy/drama Our Brand Is Crisis. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
After the downright embarrassing performances of some of last week’s newbies (much more on that below), I’m not even supremely confident that putting each of these new entries in the $7-9 million range is correct, but we shall see.
**blogger’s update: due to the previously unknown knowledge that Scouts Guide is only opening on 1500 screens, I am downgrading my $8 million estimate to just $4.2 million
As for the top spot, it could continue to be a battle between The Martian and Goosebumps and my estimates reflect a photo finish. Bridge of Spies, in its third weekend, should continue its small declines from week to week.
And with that, we’ll do a top five projections for what should be a sluggish frame before Spectre and The Peanuts Movie roll out the following weekend:
Goosebumps
Predicted Gross: $11.2 million (representing a drop of 28%)
2. The Martian
Predicted Gross: $10.8 million (representing a drop of 31%)
3. Burnt
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
4. Bridge of Spies
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 29%)
5. Our Brand Is Crisis
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
Box Office Results (October 23-25)
Well, I thought it might be an unpredictable weekend and was it ever! Not too often that my #1 pick comes in seventh and my #4 pick finishes on top, but that’s exactly what happened.
Ridley Scott’s The Martian climbed back into the #1 position with $15.7 million, ahead of my $12.5M projection to bring its fine total to $166M in four weeks.
Last weekend’s champ Goosebumps fell to second with $15.5 million, under my $17.8M estimate for a two week tally of $43M. As mentioned above, I expect this and The Martian to duke it out for box office supremacy once again this weekend.
Bridge of Spies was third in weekend two with $11.3 million, on target with my $11.9M projection for a $32M total.
The first newcomer of five lackluster debuts belonged to Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter, taking in just $10.8 million compared to my $15.8M prediction. Poor reviews and a blah marketing campaign didn’t help.
Animated holdover Hotel Transylvania 2 was fifth with $8.8 million (I said $7.6M) for a current $148M haul.
In sixth was Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension with $8 million (as opposed to my $9.7M projection). The latest and reportedly final entry in the franchise went out with a whimper, partly due to its low number of screens due to controversy about it debuting on VOD in just two weeks. This caused several theater chains to boycott it. While this opening is certainly soft, it is worth noting that it had the highest per screen average of anything in the top ten.
The big surprise of the weekend was the performance of Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs, which came with sizzling Oscar buzz. I predicted it would win the weekend with $19.6 million, but it stumbled with a seventh place showing at $7.1 million – obviously way less than expected. Jobs will hope for small declines over subsequent frames as the studio hopes it can possibly play well into awards season.
Guillermo del Toro’s dud Crimson Peak was eighth in its sophomore frame with $5.6 million (I said $6.1M) for a lackluster $22M gross.
Positions nine and ten belonged to holdovers that I didn’t predict would be there – The Intern with $3.7 million and Sicario with $2.8 million. Their respective grosses stand at $64 and $39M.
That’s because two other new flicks had disastrous debuts. Bill Murray’s critically reviled Rock the Kasbah made just $1.4 million compared to my extremely generous $7.8M estimate and the live-action version of 80s cartoon Jem and the Holograms posted a pathetic $1.3 million (I said $4.1M). That’s good for respective 13th and 15th position debuts. Ouch.
And that’s all for now, my friends! Until next time…
It’s an extremely busy weekend at the box office as five new titles open up: the wide release of the acclaimed Steve Jobs, Vin Diesel’s The Last Witch Hunter, sixth franchise entry Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension, Bill Murray comedy Rock the Kasbah, and 80s cartoon live-action adaptation Jem and the Holograms. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
With the quintet of newbies premiering, it’s creating some real unpredictability as to what will come out on top, especially considering the fact that current champ Goosebumps could see a minimal decline in its second weekend due to the Halloween frame.
I’m going with Steve Jobs and its hot Oscar buzz coming out on top, but it could certainly debut a little lower than my estimate with meager drop-offs in subsequent weekends. The Last Witch Hunter could certainly over perform, though it appears unlikely Paranormal Activity has any shot at the top of the charts due to its lower theater count (my individual post on it explains further). Kasbah and Jem seem likely for single digit debuts outside the top five.
As for other holdovers, look for Bridge of Spies to have the tiniest decline of all unless Goosebumps holds up even better than my forecast. Guillermo del Toro’s Crimson Peak is likely to have the worst sophomore decline after its lackluster opening.
And with that, on a supremely unpredictable weekend, my estimates for the top ten:
Steve Jobs
Predicted Gross: $19.6 million
2. Goosebumps
Predicted Gross: $17.8 million (representing a drop of 25%)
3. The Last Witch Hunter
Predicted Gross: $15.8 million
4. The Martian
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)
5. Bridge of Spies
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million (representing a drop of 22%)
6. Paranormal Activity: The Ghost Dimension
Predicted Gross: $9.7 million
7. Rock the Kasbah
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
8. Hotel Transylvania 2
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 39%)
9. Crimson Peak
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 53%)
10. Jem and the Holograms
Predicted Gross: $4.1 million
Box Office Results (October 16-18)
Kid friendly Goosebumps managed to knock The Martian off its two week perch on top as it grossed a solid $23.6 million, beyond my $19.4M projection. As mentioned, this should hold up well in weekend #2.
The Martian slipped to second with $21.3 million, a bit under my $24.6M forecast for a terrific three week total of $143M.
Landing in third was Steven Spielberg’s acclaimed Bridge of Spies, posting an OK $15.3 million (compared to my $21.2M estimate). The good news is that Spies should perform well throughout the fall with its own Academy Award buzz going for it.
Crimson Peak flopped in fourth place with just $13.1 million compared to my $15.8M prediction. This one more or less got lost in the shuffle and represents a disappointment for director Guillermo del Toro.
Hotel Transylvania 2 was fifth with $12.6 million, lower than my $16M projection and its total is at $136M.
Languishing in sixth is the bomb Pan with $5.8 million in its second weekend (I said $6.8M). Its embarrassing two week haul is at $25M.
Finally, faith based football drama Woodlawn debuted in ninth (as I predicted) with $4 million, right in line with my $4.3M estimate.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
It’s a very bustling weekend at the box office as four new titles make their debuts: Steven Spielberg’s Cold War thriller Bridge of Spies with Tom Hanks, family friendly Goosebumps, Guillermo del Toro’s gothic horror offering Crimson Peak and faith based football drama Woodlawn. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each one of them here:
Even with the slew of high profile premieres, they all could fall behind Ridley Scott’s critically acclaimed and audience pleasing The Martian, which looks to three peat. After a great second weekend, the pic is likely to only lose about a third of its audience once again. As I see it, only Bridge of Spies and or Goosebumps could dethrone it, but I’m doubtful.
As for other holdovers, Hotel Transylvania 2 should continue its stellar run in week #4 while box office bomb Pan will probably lose over half its audience, leaving it flailing in sixth place.
And with that, my top 6 projections for what promises to be a fascinating weekend:
The Martian
Predicted Gross: $24.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)
2. Bridge of Spies
Predicted Gross: $21.2 million
3. Goosebumps
Predicted Gross: $19.4 million
4. Hotel Transylvania 2
Predicted Gross: $16 million (representing a drop of 31%)
5. Crimson Peak
Predicted Gross: $15.8 million
6. Pan
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million (representing a drop of 55%)
My prediction for Woodlawn, opening on a relatively low 1500 screens, is $4.3 million and that probably puts it in ninth place.
BOX OFFICE RESULTS (OCTOBER 9-11)
As expected, The Martian kept rolling along with its impressive numbers while new entries to the weekend all failed to gain an audience. The Ridley Scott/Matt Damon sci fi blockbuster added $37 million to its coffers, right on pace with my $36.8M estimate to bring its total to $108 million (matching its reported budget).
Hotel Transylvania 2 remained in runner up position with $20.4 million, in line with my $21.7M projection for a three week haul of $116 million.
Another family offering, Peter Pan origin tale Pan, stumbled badly to the tune of a $15.3 million start. This is below my $17.6M prediction. With a rumored budget of $150 million, this represents a massive bomb for Warner Bros and it will struggle to even earn a third of that budget domestically. Ouch.
Holdovers populated spots 4-6: The Intern with $8.6 million compared to my $8M estimate to bring its total to $49 million; Sicario with $7.5 million compared to my $6.9M estimate to bring its total to nearly $27 million; and Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials with $5.3 million for a $70 million overall gross. I incorrectly had Maze outside the top six.
That’s because I gave far too much credit to Robert Zemeckis’s The Walk, which expanded nationwide and posted a paltry seventh place showing of only $3.7 million. I predicted $11.9M. Oops. This easily gave the Oscar winning director of Forrest Gump the worst opening of his long career and pretty much snuffed out any chance of the critically respected effort garnering Academy Awards attention.
Finally, the Andrew Garfield/Michael Shannon thriller 99 Homes opened in limited fashion. I said it’d eek out a $1.8 million gross, but it managed just $647,000.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Until next time…
October rolls along at the box office as family friendly Pan debuts while The Walk expands and critically approved thriller 99 Homes opens in more limited fashion. You can read my detailed prediction posts on Pan and The Walk right here:
Pan has been the subject of many negative reviews and it doesn’t help that Hotel Transylvania 2 should still be playing quite well with its intended audience in weekend #3. That leads me to predict that the Peter Pan story will only manage a third place showing out of the gate. The Walk actually had a fairly disappointing roll out in its limited IMAX release and I have it doing low double digits for a fourth place premiere. 99 Homes with Andrew Garfield and Michael Shannon is only opening on approximately 500 screens. It’s flying under the radar and I have it pegged for a gross of $1.8 million, far outside the top five (and maybe even top ten).
As for holdovers, Ridley Scott’s The Martian with Matt Damon blasted off to a terrific debut and word of mouth is strong. I don’t believe its drop will be very big and it should easily repeat at #1, with Hotel Transylvania 2 continuing its impressive haul in the runner up spot. The Intern and Sicario should battle for the five spot.
And with that, a top 6 predictions for the weekend:
The Martian
Predicted Gross: $36.8 million (representing a drop of 32%)
2. Hotel Transylvania 2
Predicted Gross: $21.7 million (representing a drop of 34%)
3. Pan
Predicted Gross: $17.6 milion
4. The Walk
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million
5. The Intern
Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 32%)
6. Sicario
Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 43%)
Box Office Results (October 2-4)
As mentioned, The Martian exceeded expectations, capitalizing on stellar reviews for a $54.3 million opening (well beyond my $40.3M estimate). That’s good for the second biggest October premiere of all time, just behind Gravity from 2013. It’s also Matt Damon’s second highest debut after The Bourne Ultimatum.
Adam Sandler’s animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 2 held up better than my prognostication with $32.9 million in its sophomore frame, compared to my $26.2M forecast. It’s made $90 million so far.
Border thriller Sicario had a pretty sturdy wide release with $12 million, not quite matching my $13M prediction. Strong reviews helped and it hopes to experience fairly small declines in subsequent weekends.
In its second weekend, The Intern with Anne Hathaway and Robert De Niro held up well with $11.6 million compared to my $10.5M estimate and its two week total stands at $36 million.
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials was fifth with $7.8 million, in line with my $8.2M forecast to bring its gross to $63 million. Sixth place belonged to Black Mass with $5.8 million ($52M total). I incorrectly had it outside the top six because I predicted Everest would be in the spot. It was seventh with $5.6 million (below my $7.7M estimate) to brings its underwhelming total to $33 million.
And that’ll do it for now, friends! Until next time…
Two new adult themed titles compete against the second weekend of the record setting animated pic Hotel Transylvania 2. They are the Ridley Scott sci fi pic The Martian with Matt Damon and border crime thriller Sicario, which has earned great reviews and expands nationwide after a stellar limited release. You can peruse my detailed individual prediction posts on each here:
The Martian shouldn’t have much trouble opening #1, though my prediction is a bit below what some other prognosticators have it pegged at. I don’t believe it’ll reach the September record that the Transylvania sequel just set, but you never know (more on that below).
Meanwhile, the aforementioned Transylvania 2 should drop to second with all other holdovers dipping in the low to mid 40s range. That could mean a close competition for the five spot between Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Everest while the Anne Hathaway/Robert De Niro comedy The Intern should have fourth to itself.
That means I’m predicting Sicario will open third in its expanded roll out.
And with that, a top six predictions for this weekend:
The Martian
Predicted Gross: $40.3 million
2. Hotel Transylvania 2
Predicted Gross: $26.2 million (representing a drop of 45%)
3. Sicario
Predicted Gross: $13 million
4. The Intern
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 40%)
5. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million (representing a drop of 44%)
6. Everest
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 42%)
Box Office Results (September 25-27)
As mentioned, the Adam Sandler animated sequel Hotel Transylvania 2 beat its own predecessor’s record for the biggest September debut in box office history. I incorrectly had it grossing less out of the gate than the original three years ago, but it took in a terrific $47.5 million, blasting past my $34.1M estimate.
The Intern had a stellar debut with $17.7 million, a bit under my $19 million prediction and represents a nice mid size hit for Ms. Hathaway and Mr. De Niro.
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials dipped to third in its second weekend with $14.2 million, a little under my $16.1M prediction and the YA sequel stands at $51 million.
The mountain climbing action thriller Everest expanded nationally and posted results that were less than expected. It earned $13.2 million, below my $17.6M estimate.
Johnny Depp’s Black Mass rounded out the top five in weekend #2 with $11 million, under my $13.5M forecast. Its two week total is at $42 million.
Finally, Eli Roth’s long delayed horror flick The Green Inferno opened in ninth place with just $3.5 million – though it did exceed my $2.5M prediction.
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