Before this year, Margot Robbie was primarily known as Leonardo DiCaprio’s stunning wife in 2013’s TheWolfofWallStreet and, to a lesser degree, costar to Will Smith in 2015’s Focus.
Yet it was in 2016 that she blew up big time, as the Aussie actress was perhaps the best thing in two summer flicks – TheLegendofTarzan and especially SuicideSquad, in which she teamed up with the Fresh Prince once again. Her Harley Quinn character in Squad was a bright spot in a mixed bag of an experience.
Robbie’s considerably larger star power has led to her being attached to a slew of upcoming roles. She will eventually reprise her Harley role in GothamCitySirens, which will pair her with other notable female DC super villains such as Poison Ivy and Catwoman. She’s also signed to portray notorious figure skater Tonya Harding in biopic I, Tonya.
No doubt about it – this screen bad girl had a very good 2016.
Like the many con artist tales before it, Focus is filled to the brim with twists and turns and diversions that constantly keep you guessing. In the best of these genre tales, you leave marveling at how the con was pulled and it manages to hold up under close inspection. That’s not really the case in this movie. There are surprises to be had for sure and some don’t really make a lick of sense.
Therefore it’s a bonus to have beautiful and talented stars like Will Smith and Margot Robbie starring and lovely scenery in Buenos Aires to entertain our eyes. They play a pair of con artists whose resumes differ tremendously. Nicky (Smith) is a pro with a team of people under him whose family lineage consists of those who share the profession. Jess (Robbie) is just getting started in the business and her experience as we open consists mostly of picking pockets. The two form an alliance in every sense imaginable and he takes her under his wing. Yet his sense of not getting too close to anyone puts a sudden stop to their romantic and professional partnership.
Flash forward to three years later where our leads finally see each other again in Buenos Aires. Nicky is working for a billionaire race car owner (Rodrigo Santoro) whose enlisted his help to fix a competition. Jess is dating him. Of course, as is tradition in these pictures, nothing is really as it seems and there are twists aplenty.
Focus doesn’t add anything new to this well worn genre. It manages to coast amiably on the charms of Smith and Robbie. It’s worth noting that our Fresh Prince is quite a bit more subdued than normal. he acquits himself just fine and has solid chemistry with the game Robbie, who we first noticed in her terrific performance in Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street.
Gerald McRaney (TV’s Major Dad!) is the bad guy’s head of security whose character provides one of the more head scratching surprises, but the performance itself is solid. Adrian Martinez provides some entertaining comic relief as one of Nicky’s employees and B.D. Wong is fun in a cleverly constructed con scheme sequence set at the Super Bowl.
Simply put, there’s nothing very special or unique to see here in Focus and the more serious tone shift in the third act is jarring. Luckily the actors do enough here to keep your attention in… well, you know the rest.
For the second weekend in a row, a big budget blockbuster geared towards the female audience will likely dominate a B action movie with Liam Neeson connections. YA sequel Insurgent comes out a year following its predecessor Divergent and I have it debuting to even bigger numbers. The Gunman comes from the director of Neeson’s Taken and stars Sean Penn. The wild card newbie is faith based drama Do You Believe?, which could carry on the recent tradition of these types of pics premiering with larger than anticipated results. You can find detailed prediction posts on all three newcomers here:
As you can see, I expect Insurgent to easily top the charts. Disney’s live action Cinderella retelling should be #2 after its very strong rollout this past weekend (more on that below). I anticipate it’ll drop in the mid 40s range.
I have Do You Believe? posting healthier numbers than The Gunman, which has been the victim of some pretty brutal reviews so far. The underperforming Liam Neeson thriller Run All Night should round out the top five after its muted opening this last weekend.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Insurgent
Predicted Gross: $62.1 million
2. Cinderella
Predicted Gross: $36.9 million (representing a drop of 45%)
3. Do You Believe?
Predicted Gross: $12.3 millon
4. The Gunman
Predicted Gross: $6.8 million
5. Run All Night
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 49%)
Box Office Results (March 13-15)
Well, call me the belle of the ball this weekend! Disney’s Cinderella got off to a terrific start with $67.8 million. My prediction? $67.8 million! Holla!! Female audiences turned out in droves for the acclaimed feature. Having a short film from the Frozen team airing before it probably didn’t hurt either.
The news was not near as good for Liam Neeson as Run All Night stumbled with just $11 million, a little short of my $12.1 million. Reviews were OK but having this arrive so soon after Taken 3 was probably a misstep.
Kingsman: The Secret Service was third and it’s posted solid holds from week to week. I incorrectly had its outside the top five but it earned $6.2 million to boost its current cume to $107 million.
Focus and Chappie each made $5.7 million for fourth and fifth, right around my respective projections of $5.6 million and $6.1 million. The Will Smith caper has made a middling $43 million while Chappie stands at a weak $23 million. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was sixth with $5.6 million, in line with my $6 million estimate. It’s made $18 million through two weeks.
And that will wrap it up for now…. Until next time!
It may be Friday the 13th coming up, but Disney’s live-action Cinderella seems poised to reverse some recent bad luck at the box office. The Kenneth Branagh directed tale, which has been receiving highly positive reviews, should easily dominate the charts this weekend.
Results may not be as positive for the Liam Neeson action thriller Run All Night, which is likely to gross nowhere near what the star’s Taken franchise has accomplished.
They are the two new releases this weekend and you can peruse my detailed predictions posts on each here:
Cinderella and Run All Night should populate spots #1 and #2. The rest of the top five could be a close race between leftovers Chappie, The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, and Focus.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Cinderella
Predicted Gross: $67.8 million
2. Run All Night
Predicted Gross: $12.1 million
3. Chappie
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 54%)
4. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 30%)
5. Focus
Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 44%)
Box Office Results (March 6-8)
Neill Blomkamp’s sci-fi robot pic Chappie might be able to claim it opened #1, though that’s about the only item the studio can brag about. In what is so far the worst box office weekend of 2015, Chappie debuted to a weak $13.3 million, more than $10 million below my $23.8M estimate. The director has seen diminishing returns from his Oscar nominated District 9 to Elysium to this.
Will Smith’s Focus fell to second in its sophomore frame with $10 million, in line with my $10.2M estimate. Its total stands at an unimpressive $34 million, far under what most movies featuring the Fresh Prince usually earn.
Sequel The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel was a lone bright spot with a solid $8.5 million (especially considering its low number of screens). This put it right with my $8.6M projection.
Kingsman: The Secret Service added $8.3 million to its $98 million haul, just over my $7.7M prediction.
I incorrectly had the SpongeBob movie outside of the top five and it placed there with $6.6 million (total: $148M).
That’s because I incorrectly placed the critically drubbed Vince Vaughn comedy Unfinished Business in the top five. It landed with a resounding thud in 10th place with just $4.7 million (I said $8.4M). This is easily Vaughn’s worst opening for a comedy and continues his recent streak of bad luck in theaters.
Lastly, American Sniper achieved a milestone as it has earned $337 million. That officially makes it the highest grossing film of 2014 after edging out the $336 million that the third Hunger Games entry accomplished.
The box office sees three new entries in the marketplace this Friday: Neill Blomkamp’s sci-fi action pic Chappie, the Vince Vaughn comedy Unfinished Business, and comedy/drama sequel The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel. You can read my detailed prediction posts on each here:
It’s hard to imagine Chappie not easily topping the charts, though I’m predicting its opening falls under director Blomkamp’s first two efforts, District 9 and Elysium.
I’m predicting Marigold Hotel will actually slightly outdo Business, which is bad news for the Vince Vaughn flick considering it opens on about twice as many screens.
As for holdovers, while Will Smith’s Focus was #1 for the weekend, its debut was lackluster and I expect it to fall in the mid 40s during sophomore weekend. Current #2 Kingsman: The Secret Service should round out the top five.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Chappie
Predicted Gross: $23.8 million
2. Focus
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 45%)
3. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
4. Unfinished Business
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
5. Kingsman: The Secret Service
Predicted Gross: $7.7 million (representing a drop of 35%)
Box Office Results (February 27-March 1)
As mentioned, Will Smith’s caper pic Focus managed a first place opening, but not many bragging rights. It opened at $18.6 million, a bit below my $21.3M forecast. This represents the star’s second worst opening in 13 years, behind only the $14.8 million premiere of Seven Pounds in 2008. Smith is simply not the box office draw he once was and Focus, with its mixed reviews, proved that.
Kingsman remained in second place with $11.8 million, ahead of my $9.8M projection. The comic book based hit stands at $85.8M so far.
The SpongeBob movie took third with $10.8 million, above my $9.3M prediction. Its total is at a strong $139.9M.
Fifty Shades of Grey dropped to fourth after two weeks on top of the charts with $10.5 million, right on target with my $10.4M estimate. The three week total is at $147.3M.
Finally, new horror offering The Lazarus Effect failed to generate much audience interest with a ho-hum $10.2 million opening, a bit under my $11.6M prediction.
Two new pictures look to open in first and second this weekend at the box office as Will Smith’s con artist tale Focus and horror flick The Lazarus Effect with Olivia Wilde debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each here:
I expect the Focus opening to not nearly be in line with your typical Will Smith action or science fiction extravaganza, but it should be enough to propel it to #1. Lazarus should see just over double digits, which I’ll predict will allow it the runner-up position.
As for holdovers, Fifty Shades of Grey experienced a massive drop-off in its sophomore weekend (more on that below). Its second to third weekend fall shouldn’t be quite as drastic, though I expect it’ll continue to lose more than half its audience. Kingsman: The Secret Service and SpongeBob should both experience percentage declines in the mid 40s and round out the top five.
And with that, my top five predictions for the coming weekend:
1. Focus
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million
2. The Lazarus Effect
Predicted Gross: $11.6 million
3. Fifty Shades of Grey
Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 53%)
4. Kingsman: The Secret Service
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 46%)
5. The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie: Sponge Out of Water
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 44%)
Box Office Results (February 20-22)
Everyone expected Fifty Shades of Grey to experience a precipitous decline in weekend #2, but 74% is a lot. The picture stayed #1, however, with $22.2 million – below my estimate of $29.2M. The erotic tale has grossed $129.1M so far.
Kingsman: The Secret Service earned $18.3 million in its second weekend and I predicted… $18.3M! Gold star! The comic book adaptation has made $67M and looks to top the century club.
SpongeBob was third in its third frame with $16.5 million, right in line with my $16.8M projection and its total stands at $126.2M.
Of the three newbies over the weekend, the Kevin Costner sports drama fared the best, as I predicted. It made $11 million, just outshining my $9.7M prediction. With a reported budget of only $17M, this was a solid result.
Teen comedy The DUFF, another low budget offering at just $12 million, also did commendable business with $10.8 million, above my $7.9M estimate.
Oscar nominee American Sniper earned $10 million (right under my $11.1M projection) and the gargantuan total for it is at $320M.
Finally, raunchy comedy sequel Hot Tub Time Machine 2 tanked with a tepid $5.9 million, not matching my $8.3M prediction. While the original is a cult hit, audiences clearly weren’t clamoring for a follow-up and highly negative reviews didn’t assist.
Will Smith stars as a con artist alongside Wolf of Wall Street’s Margot Robbie in Focus, out Friday. The romantic comedic drama’s earning potential will rest solely on the Fresh Prince’s shoulders and it’s a legit question as to how strong that drawing power still is.
Of course from the mid 90s and the decade following, it was a different story with Smith. Films like Independence Day, Men in Black, Enemy of the State, I, Robot and Hitch were mega blockbusters. It has been two years since Big Willie Style headlined a film and it wasn’t a success story. M. Night Shyamalan’s sci fi dud After Earth took in just $60 million in the summer of 2013.
The expectations for Focus aren’t nearly as high as your typical fare starring Smith. In fact, I believe it will take in less with its opening than the aforementioned Earth. The budget is a surprisingly high $100 million, which means Warner Bros. is unlikely to see a return on their investment. Anything above $25 million would be decent, but I don’t see it reaching that.
Focus opening weekend prediction: $21.3 million
For my prediction on The Lazarus Effect, click here:
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