Tag: Faith Based Movies

Unbroken: Path to Redemption Box Office Prediction

This weekend, Harold Cronk (director of God’s Not Dead and its first sequel) has the faith-based war drama God Bless the Broken Road opening in theaters. Next weekend, the busy filmmaker releases Unbroken: Path to Redemption. It is deemed a “spiritual sequel” to 2014’s Unbroken. Pure Flix Entertainment is the distributor and I have a feeling we are about to see one of the largest opening weekend disparities from predecessor to follow-up.

Four years ago, Angelina Jolie made the first entry. It opened on Christmas Day and took in $46 million over the holiday weekend with an eventual domestic haul of $115 million. None of the principles behind that hit are back. Samuel Hunt takes over the lead role that Jack O’Connell played and the supporting cast includes Merritt Patterson, Vanessa Bell Calloway (most known as Eddie Murphy’s arranged wife 30 years ago in Coming to America), Bob Gunton, Gary Cole and evangelist Will Graham (who plays his late grandfather Billy).

I’m not so sure moviegoers are even aware of this sequel’s existence. Redemption is currently slated to premiere on a rather low 1200 screens. I have this weekend’s Harold Cronk movie (Broken Road) estimated at $2.1 million. I’ll bump this one a tad bit more, but not by much.

Unbroken: Path to Redemption opening weekend prediction: $2.5 million

For my The Predator prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/05/the-predator-box-office-prediction/

For my A Simple Favor prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/05/a-simple-favor-box-office-prediction/

For my White Boy Rick prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/09/06/white-boy-rick-box-office-prediction/

God Bless the Broken Road Box Office Prediction

This Friday, the faith-based military drama God Bless the Broken Road parks in approximately 1200 theaters. To say the pic has an eclectic mix of participants is an understatement. Harold Cronk directs and he’s responsible for distributor Freestyle Releasing largest hit God’s Not Dead and its sequel. It’s based on a song made known by country band Rascal Flatts (which automatically causes me to point out that they hail from my home of Columbus, Ohio). And the cast includes Lindsay Pulsipher, Jordin Sparks, Robin Givens, and former NFL superstar LaDainian Tomlinson.

Quite the grouping, huh? The low number of theaters certainly limits its prospects. That said, pics geared toward Christian audiences can often surprise. We all saw a huge example of that earlier this year when I Can Only Imagine (also based on a song) demolished all expectations.

I don’t see this happening. I think the road for this ends with $3 million as a likely ceiling and I’ll go under that.

God Bless the Broken Road opening weekend prediction: $2.1 million

For my The Nun prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/28/the-nun-box-office-prediction/

For my Peppermint prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/08/28/peppermint-box-office-prediction/

Pope Francis: A Man of His Word Box Office Prediction

Focus Features and acclaimed filmmaker Wim Wenders team up for the documentary Pope Francis: A Man of His Word next weekend. The pic focuses on the 266th and current pontiff and looks to bring in stateside Catholics for a high per screen average.

It could certainly be rather successful in doing so. The doc is slated to be released on a rather low 350 theaters, but it could certainly achieve the third largest per screen gross behind Deadpool 2 and Avengers: Infinity War.

If this manages to do around what RBG (the documentary about United States Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg) did this past weekend on an individual theater basis, that would put Pope at a bit over $2 million.

Pope Francis: A Man of His Word opening weekend prediction: $2.3 million

For my Deadpool 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/09/deadpool-2-box-office-prediction/

For my Book Club prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/09/book-club-box-office-prediction/

For my Show Dogs prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/05/10/show-dogs-box-office-prediction/

God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness Box Office Prediction

This Easter weekend, God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness debuts in theaters. It is the third Christian themed drama in a franchise that began four years ago. Michael Mason directs a cast that includes David A.R. White, John Corbett, Shane Harper, Ted McGinley, Jennifer Taylor, Tatum O’Neal, rapper Shwayze, and Cissy Houston (mother of Whitney).

The Pure Flix release finds itself in direct competition with some similar genre fare. This is the third faith-based release in as many weeks. I Can Only Imagine will be in its third weekend and Paul, Apostle of Christ in its second. In 2014, God’s Not Dead premiered to $9.2 million and legged out splendidly to a $60 million domestic gross. Two years later, God’s Not Dead 2 couldn’t match it with a $7.6 million debut and only a $20 million overall total.

Even with the advantage of the Easter opening, the competition and dwindling fortune of part 2 could hinder this. I’ll predict it continues that downward trajectory.

God’s Not Dead: A Light in Darkness opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million

For my Ready Player One prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/20/ready-player-one-box-office-prediction/

For my Acrimony prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/21/acrimony-box-office-prediction/

Paul, Apostle of Christ Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (03/19): The reported 1400 theater count has caused me to downsize my Apostle prediction from $10.3 million to just $5.5 million.

Rising in theaters a week before the Easter holiday frame is Paul, Apostle of Christ. The Biblical drama casts Jim Faulkner as Saint Paul and Jim Caviezel as Saint Luke. The supporting cast includes Olivier Martinez and Joanne Whalley. Andrew Wyatt directs.

Faith based pictures are often tricky to project, but its pre Easter release date should only help. It also doesn’t hurt that Caviezel starred in the highest grossing (by far) genre entry, 2004’s The Passion of the Christ.

There is some competition for the same audience as the more contemporary Christian themed I Can Only Imagine will be in its sophomore weekend. A decent comp for Apostle could be 2016’s Risen, which earned $11.8 million for its beginning. I’ll put it a bit under that.

Paul, Apostle of Christ opening weekend prediction: $5.5 million

For my Pacific Rim Uprising prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/13/pacific-rim-uprising-box-office-prediction/

For my Sherlock Gnomes prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/13/sherlock-gnomes-box-office-prediction/

For my Midnight Sun prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/16/midnight-sun-box-office-prediction/

For my Unsane prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/16/unsane-box-office-prediction/

I Can Only Imagine Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Note (03/14/18): I am revisiting my estimate considerably upwards to $5.4 million

Playing in theaters next weekend is the faith based drama I Can Only Imagine, which tells the story behind the making of the most popular Christian contemporary song of all time. The song shares the title of the film from the band MercyMe with J. Michael Finley as lead singer Bart Millard. Costars include Dennis Quaid, Cloris Leachman, and Trace Adkins. The directors are Andrew and Jon Erwin, makers of Woodlawn and Moms’ Night Out.

I’ve yet to see a theater count for Imagine, but I would guess it’ll be relatively low at about 1,000. This genre has shown the ability to over perform estimates. That said, this one seems to be generating rather meager buzz. The Erwin brothers have seen their previous two outings make about $4 million for their starts. I’ll predict Imagine doesn’t quite reach that number.

I Can Only Imagine opening weekend prediction: $5.4 million

For my Tomb Raider prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/06/tomb-raider-box-office-prediction/

For my Love, Simon prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2018/03/07/love-simon-box-office-prediction/

All Saints Box Office Prediction

Sony Pictures attempts to tap into faith-based crowds when All Saints debuts in theaters next weekend. John Corbett headlines as a corporate type gone pastor in the drama costarring Cara Buono, David Keith, and Barry Corbin. Steve Gomer, who’s primarily a TV director, is behind the camera and he also made 1998’s Barney’s Great Adventure (fun fact!).

Christian pics have had a history of sometimes outdoing projections, especially if larger churches plan outings to view it. That said, the late August release date doesn’t inspire much confidence as this is usually a very quiet time in multiplexes.

With an estimated theater count of around 800 screens, I’ll say All Saints struggles to even reach $3 million.

All Saints opening weekend prediction: $2.6 million

For my Leap! prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/16/leap-box-office-prediction/

For my Birth of the Dragon prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/17/birth-of-the-dragon-box-office-prediction/

For my Good Time prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/08/21/good-time-box-office-prediction/

 

 

The Case for Christ Box Office Prediction

This Friday, The Case for Christ will attempt to capitalize on the upcoming Easter holiday by bringing in faith-based audiences. Pictures in this genre have over performed in the past. Christ focuses on proving the existence of Jesus with a cast that includes Mike Vogel, Erika Christensen, Robert Forster, and Faye Dunaway (last seen accidentally proclaiming La La Land as Best Picture instead of Moonlight).

The pic comes from Pure Flix Entertainment and they specialize in these Christian themed dramas. Their biggest success was 2014’s God’s Not Dead, which surprised prognosticators with a $9 million opening and $60 million eventual domestic gross. Christ is slated to premiere on around 1100 screens, which isn’t a huge number.

I don’t believe this will enter the territory of the studio’s largest success. Instead, I could see a gross similar to their 2015 effort Do You Believe?, which made $3.5 million out of the gate on a similar (1320 screens) number of venues.

The Case for Christ opening weekend prediction: $3.4 million

For my Smurfs: The Lost Village prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/29/smurfs-the-lost-village-box-office-prediction/

For my Going in Style prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/03/29/going-in-style-box-office-prediction/

The Resurrection of Gavin Stone Box Office Prediction

Faith based comedic drama The Resurrection of Gavin Stone debuts next weekend and it hopes to over perform like several other Christian themed pics have in recent years. Co-produced in part by Blumhouse Tilt and WWE Studios, it stars Brett Dalton, Anjelah Johnson, Neil Flynn, Shawn Michaels (yep, the wrestler), and D.B. Sweeney (yep, one half of the ice skating duo in early 90s flick The Cutting Edge).

Focusing on a washed up child star who pretends to be a person of faith to play Jesus in a megachurch production, Stone comes with just a teeny $2 million budget. Profitability shouldn’t be a tall order.

That said, I expect it to fall just under its budget in the opening frame with the caveat that it could surprise a bit.

The Resurrection of Gavin Stone opening weekend prediction: $1.6 million

For my xXx: Return of Xander Cage prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/10/xxx-return-of-xander-cage-box-office-prediction/

For my Split prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/10/split-box-office-prediction/

For my The Founder prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/11/the-founder-box-office-prediction/

For my 20th Century Women prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2017/01/12/20th-century-women-box-office-prediction/

Hillsong – Let Hope Rise Box Office Prediction

BLOGGER’S Update: (09-12-16, 8:24pm) It’s just been revealed that Hillsong will only be released on approximately 815 screens. This lowers my projection to $3 million dollars.

This Friday, the faith based concert film Hillsong – Let Hope Rise hits theaters and will try to attract music loving Christian moviegoers. The documentary chronicles the Australian band’s story as they’ve sold millions of albums since their formation in 1998. It was originally scheduled to be released over a year ago, but was pushed back at least twice due to the bankruptcy of its studio.

Yes, I Googled all of this information as Hillsong is not a group I’m personally familiar with. My uncertainty for its box office prognosis is on a couple of levels. I don’t have a screen count for it yet, most importantly. The difference between 800 theaters or 2000 could greatly fluctuate my estimate (I’ll reserve the right to change this when it is released). Also, faith based audiences have been known to cause pictures to greatly exceed expectations.

So… guess work, folks! As it stands now, I’ll say Hillsong reaches somewhere between $4-6 million and we’ll see how it goes…

Hillsong – Let Hope Rise opening weekend prediction: $3 million (Updated – see above)

For my Blair Witch prediction, click here:

Blair Witch Box Office Prediction

For my Bridget Jones’s Baby prediction, click here:

Bridget Jones’s Baby Box Office Prediction

For my Snowden prediction, click here:

Snowden Box Office Prediction