Blogger’s Update (05/12): Revising Firestarter down to $6.5 million
A different caped crusader set the 2022 opening weekend record with Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness dominating the charts. It will reign supreme in its sophomore frame as only the Stephen King adapted horror reboot Firestarter debuts this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
I’m giving Firestarter (also available via Peacock) the benefit of the doubt by putting it in double digits considering its genre often over performs. That should easily give it the #2 slot behind MCU’s mystical doc.
Look for The Bad Guys and Sonic the Hedgehog 2 to slide a spot to 3rd and 4th. The five spot could be close between Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore and Everything Everywhere All at Once.
The real question is how far Multiverse drops in its sophomore outing. The Strange sequel received mixed critical reaction that has carried over a bit with audiences. The B+ Cinemascore grade is among the lowest of the franchise. Only Eternals (B) was below it while 2011’s original Thor also received the B+ designation. Due to that factor, I could foresee a low to potentially high 60s range fall.
Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Predicted Gross: $66.8 million
2. The Bad Guys
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
3. Firestarter
Predicted Gross: $6.5 million
4. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
5. Everything Everywhere All at Once
Predicted Gross: $3.1 million
6. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Predicted Gross: $2.7 million
Box Office Results (May 6-8)
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness had the #11 largest domestic debut in history, positioning itself between fellow Disney sequels Avengers: Age of Ultron and Incredibles 2. Coming on the heels of Spider-Man: No Way Home, the MCU property amassed $187.4 million. While that didn’t get into top 10 all-time territory like I projected at $208.5 million, it’s still a marvelous haul (especially considering the 2016 original began with $85 million). For the reasons stated above, I do expect a larger than normal MCU decline in the mid 60s.
The Bad Guys, after two weeks in first, was second with $9.5 million. That’s in line with my $10 million estimate as the DreamWorks title has taken in $57 million thus far.
Sonic the Hedgehog 2 was third with $6 million, a bit under my expected $7.1 million. Overall gross is a sturdy $169 million.
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore continued its underwhelming run with $4.2 million. I was on target as I said $4.3 million. Total is $86 million as it’s hoping to at least eek out $100 million.
Everything Everywhere All at Once rounded out the top five with $3.5 million. I projected a little higher with $4.4 million, but its pleasing tally is up to $41 million.
We’re not yet a third of the way into 2022 and it’s at least feasible that three of the five eventual Best Animated Feature nominees will have been released. DreamWorks Animation’s The Bad Guys opens this Friday and with a 92% Rotten Tomatoes score, it shouldn’t be counted out for inclusion.
It joins the already out Turning Red (Disney) and Apollo 10 1/2 (Netflix) as viable contenders for the prize. None are shoo-in nominees, but all three had their chances assisted today with the announcement that Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse has been pushed to 2023.
Bottom line: there’s two-thirds of the year left for other hopefuls to emerge, but The Bad Guys has a fighting shot to make the cut. My Oscar Predictions posts will continue…
And it’s come to this! After seven months of endless speculation, predictions, and posts – the 94th Academy Awards (with your hosts Wanda Sykes, Amy Schumer, and Regina Hall) airs this Sunday evening.
These are my final picks for the races covering feature films. Will the Best Picture be CODA?
Or The Power of the Dog?
We have ourselves some real intrigue as both are strong possibilities. Either way, a steamer (either Netflix or Apple TV) should pick up its inaugural Best Pic victory.
Will there be upsets in any of the acting derbies where there seems to be a consensus four based on precursors? And just what will occur in the screenplay races which look unpredictable?
For each race, I’ll give you a bit of commentary along with my projected victor and the runner-up.
Let’s get to it! On Sunday evening, you will see a recap with how I performed…
Best Picture
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Commentary:
Well, the big daddy of them all has certainly become fascinating. CODA, the little Sundance pic that could, has surged in the past few days. In addition to winning the SAG Ensemble prize, it captured the Producers Guild top honor and was a BAFTA selection for Adapted Screenplay. These designations (PGA especially) are significant precursors. A strong argument could be made that it has the momentum as voting closed yesterday. In fact, I’ve seen more prognosticators picking it this week than not…
However, The Power of the Dog is still quite viable. It took the Golden Globe Best Drama trophy as well as Critics Choice and BAFTA. Until CODA‘s rise, it was the heavy favorite.
We’ve got a real coin flip, folks! That definitely makes the end of Oscar night more suspenseful than last year when Nomadland seemed unbeatable and indeed was.
I don’t believe any of the other eight pictures have a chance. As for the two that do, I’ve gone back and forth constantly all week. There’s a time to stop speculating and make a final pick and I still believe there’s enough power for the Dog to edge out CODA. That said, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if it turns out the other way.
PREDICTED WINNER:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
CODA
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Commentary:
This is far easier than Picture. With CODA maker Sian Heder absent, Jane Campion is in line to become the third female (and second in a row) to make a podium trip. She’s won all the key precursors – DGA, Globes, Critics Choice. It’s even a challenge to name a runner-up (I guess I’ll say Spielberg because he’s Spielberg). Make no mistake – this is one of the simplest checkmarks on the ballot.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Best Actress
Nominees:
Jessicas Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Commentary:
Kidman garnered the initial heat after a surprise Globe win, but that’s stalled as no other awards programs followed suit. Instead it’s been Chastain on the minor streak with SAG and Critics Choice. If there’s an upset in any acting derby, this is probably where it happens. Stewart’s road to Oscar looked shaky after some snubs. Academy voters could reward her and there’s some chatter about Cruz being viable. Yet I’m sticking with the safest best and that’s Chastain taking her first gold.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Riunner-Up:
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Best Actor
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Commentary:
During the fall, I was thinking there could be a barnburner between Smith and Cumberbatch (with Garfield as potential spoiler). That’s not how it’s played out as the Fresh Prince has been crowned the king in all preceding shows. I expect the sweep to continue.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Will Smith, King Richard
Runner-Up:
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Commentary:
Buckley and Dench were surprising inclusions, but there won’t be any shocks with the winner. DeBose has run the table and she should represent Story‘s lone victory.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Runner-Up:
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Commentary:
Despite its quartet of performers getting nominations, Dog is likely to produce Oscars for none of them. Smit-McPhee received the Golden Globe but it’s been all Kotsur since. This is the race where I’m most confident of a CODA moment.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Runner-Up:
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
Commentary:
Good luck with this one! The Writer’s Guild threw everyone for a loop last weekend when Don’t Look Up won over Licorice Pizza (Belfast was not eligible). I just don’t envision the Academy honoring Up. With a Belfast or Pizza victory, they would bestowing first ever Oscars to Kenneth Branagh and Paul Thomas Anderson respectively. With the Globe and Critics Choice going to Belfast, it has my vote (though it’s close).
PREDICTED WINNER:
Belfast
Runner-Up:
Licorice Pizza
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
Commentary:
CODA‘s BAFTA win kickstarted its momentum. Even if Dog is Best Picture, CODA could still take this. On the other hand, I think there’s a better chance Best Pic and Adapted Screenplay match so I’m rolling with the Dog with no degree of confidence whatsoever.
PREDICTED WINNER:
The Power of the Dog
Runner-Up:
CODA
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Commentary:
I’m tempted to pick a Mitchells upset, but it’s dangerous to pick against Disney and Encanto is the frontrunner.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Encanto
Runner-Up:
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Best International Feature Film
Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World
Commentary:
This is unquestionably one of the no brainer picks as Drive My Car has dominated the precursors and is the only nominee to also nab a Best Picture nod.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Drive My Car
Runner-Up:
The Worst Person in the World
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing with Fire
Commentary:
With nominations in Animated Feature, International Feature, and Doc – it sure seems like Flee should win one of them. It might stand the best chance in this competition, but Summer of Soul has been impressive in precursors and should continue the streak.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Summer of Soul
Runner-Up:
Flee
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Commentary:
This might be the tech race where Dog is successful. I’m not predicting it though and (get used to hearing this) think Dune emerges.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
The Power of the Dog
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Commentary:
Cruella has killed it the preceding competitions. Dune, if it crushes all techs, could take it but I’m going with the former.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Cruella
Runner-Up:
Dune
Best Film Editing
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick… Boom!
Commentary:
Don’t sleep on King Richard which was bestowed the EDDIE award. I still think this is Dune‘s to lose.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
King Richard
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Commentary:
Gucci could fashion a 1 for 1 victory but Tammy Faye has taken some precursors.
PREDICTED WINNER:
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Runner-Up:
House of Gucci
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
Commentary:
Like Cinematography, this is between Dog and Dune. Like Cinematography, I’m choosing the latter.
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
The Power of the Dog
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
Commentary:
Diane Warren gets her 13th nomination with “Somehow” and somehow she’s never won. That will continue. The smart money is on the 007 theme song from Billie Eilish. Yet I’m going with a minor upset with the Disney tune.
PREDICTED WINNER:
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
Runner-Up:
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Commentary:
For the last three categories, I could just say Dune and be done with it. In fact, I think I will…
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
West Side Story
Best Sound
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Commentary:
See Production Design
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
West Side Story
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Commentary:
See Production Design
PREDICTED WINNER:
Dune
Runner-Up:
There isn’t one… that’s how I’m confident I am that Dune takes it.
And so, ladies and gents, that means I’m predicting that these movies win these numbers of Oscars:
6 Wins
Dune
3 Wins
The Power of the Dog
2 Wins
Encanto, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
1 Win
Belfast, CODA, Cruella, Drive My Car, King Richard, Summer of Soul, West Side Story
Turning Red is the latest Pixar title and it is out Friday on Disney Plus. The coming-of-age tale comes from director Domee She, who won an Oscar in 2018 for her short film Bao (also from Disney/Pixar).
The review embargo is up today and the result so far is 93% on Rotten Tomatoes. Red was originally slated for a theatrical release but the pandemic altered that plan. It will follow in the footsteps of Soul, Raya and the Last Dragon, and Luca. What do they all have in common besides their studio? All were nominated or won (in Soul‘s case) for the Animated Feature Oscar.
With bicoastal limited theatrical showings, Red will qualify for next year’s Academy consideration. For 2021, 60% of the animated movies (Raya, Luca, Encanto) are Mouse Factory products.
While it’s certainly early, critical reaction here indicates this could easily make the cut. It’s also worth noting that Billie Eilish and brother Finneas O’Connell penned some original tunes that could be Original Song hopefuls. If that pans out, Eilish could be gunning for her second nod in a row as she’s currently up for “No Time to Die”. There’s also Ludwig Goransson who scored Red and he’s a previous Oscar winner for Black Panther.
The other Pixar product comes this summer with Lightyear. I wouldn’t write Red‘s inclusion in blue ink yet, but don’t be surprised if it’s listed a year from now. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
And at last… they’re out! After months of speculating on the blog (starting all the way back with my initial predictions in August), the Oscar nominations for the 94th Academy Awards were unveiled early this morning.
As always, there’s shocking omissions and surprising additions. There’s races that went as planned. And (for me at least) there’s always that one tricky category where I end up going 2/5. This year it was Documentary Feature which is notoriously tough to figure out. On the flip side, I projected 4 out of the 20 feature film competitions with 5/5 accuracy. All in all – I went 82 for 105 on the picks.
Some initial thoughts before I break it down race by race. The Power of the Dog was easily the winner of the morning with 12 nods (even more than anticipated). It led all nominees with Dune second (10).
Other movies that either met or exceeded expectations: Drive My Car, King Richard, and Nightmare Alley (which was the only somewhat surprising BP addition). For others, it was more of a mixed bag. Belfast garnered 7 mentions but came up short in key tech indicators like Cinematography and Editing. The same can be said for Licorice Pizza. Seven was also the number for West Side Story, but it missed screenplay. Being the Ricardos got 3 acting nods but no Picture or screenplay. And even Dune, with the 10 nods, somehow missed a director nomination for Denis Villeneuve.
Then there’s House of Gucci, which showed up only in Makeup and Hairstyling. No Jared Leto (I predicted he’d be left off), but no Lady Gaga in Actress was perhaps the shocker of the day.
Let’s get into it and I’ll offer my initial take on what/who could win (my final predictions will come shortly before the March 27th show).
Best Picture
Nominees:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
How I Did: 9/10
Commentary: My one miss was Alley coming in over Being the Ricardos. Make no mistake. With its 12 mentions, The Power of the Dog is undoubtedly the frontrunner. Yes, the Twitterverse will offer alternate theories. Could Drive My Car‘s impressive haul give us our second foreign BP winner in three years? Could Belfast or West Side Story spoil? I doubt it.
Best Director
Nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Hamaguchi getting in wasn’t unforeseen. If so, I figured he’d do so over Anderson, Branagh, or Spielberg and certainly not Villeneuve. That’s what happened. Campion made history today by becoming the first female nominee to get a second nomination. All signs point to her becoming the third (after Kathryn Bigelow and Chloe Zhao) to win.
Best Actress
Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: We now arrive at the biggest head scratcher of the major categories. Gaga’s aforementioned omission is truly unexpected (Cruz takes her slot). The precursors (BAFTA, Globes, SAG) have been all over the map and there’s no obvious favorite. I would say Cruz doesn’t stand much of a chance, but the other four do (it’s a lot like last year’s Actress derby). This is also the first time since 2005 where no Actress hopeful has their film in contention for Best Picture. Kidman’s Globe win could help and we’ll see what SAG does, but this is wide open.
Best Actor
Nominees:
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: That’s more like it! Smith (especially after Richard‘s good morning) is out ahead though I could see Cumberbatch definitely threatening after Dog‘s very good morning. Fun tidbit: not since 1980 has the Best Actor race consisted entirely of previous nominees until today.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: This was the first race announced today and the jaws of prognosticators dropped immediately. Buckley and (especially) Dench were not anticipated by most. I didn’t even have either as my runner-up or second alternate. They displace Ruth Negga (Passing) and Dench’s costar Caitriona Balfe. While the lineup is different than we thought, the frontrunner (DeBose) remains the same with Dunst (getting her first nod) as a possible upset pick.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Simmons in over Bradley Cooper in Licorice Pizza. Mr. Cooper has two movies contending for BP but no singling out to show for it. Smit-McPhee may be out in front but a Kotsur victory is feasible.
Best Original Screenplay
Nominees:
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Worst Person is the surprise. I didn’t predict Richard though its inclusion was expected. They’re in over Ricardos and Parallel Mothers (which was admittedly a bit of an upset pick from me). This should be between Belfast and Pizza and it may represent the best opportunity for either to grab a statue.
Tidbit: since 2001, there was at least one screenplay contender where it served as its only nomination. Until today.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Nominees:
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: Let’s not overcomplicate it when we don’t need to. Power is far and away the leader in this pack.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: This went as planned. There are three Disney products in the group, but the other two (Flee, Mitchells) are potential roadblocks to Encanto winning. Yet betting against Disney usually isn’t wise in this one and Encanto will probably take it.
Best International Feature Film
Nominees:
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom
The Worst Person in the World
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: I’m gonna go ahead and say Lunana is the first Oscar contender with Yak in its title without checking (correct me if wrong). It surprisingly gets in (along with far less surprising The Hand of God) over A Hero and Playground. This one’s simple: anything other than Car would be a massive upset.
Best Documentary Feature
Nominees:
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing with Fire
How I Did: 2/5
Commentary: There’s that blasted 2 for 5 race! Ascension, Attica, and Fire are up over my selections of Faye Dayi, Procession, and The Rescue (its omission is stunning considering it was a contender to win).
Flee made history by becoming the first film to be nominated for Animated Feature, International Feature Film, and here. This race probably marks its best chance to win, but I wouldn’t sleep on Summer of Soul.
Best Cinematography
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Alley over Belfast. Get used to hearing this with the tech categories – Dune might be out in front. Dog could threaten.
Best Costume Design
Nominees:
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Cyrano‘s sole nod comes here. I had House of Gucci instead. Dune can’t win all the techs and Cruella could take this.
Best Film Editing
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick… Boom!
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Richard and Boom! over Belfast and Licorice Pizza. The Belfast omission is particularly notable as BP victors nearly always are nominated here. This could be more Dune gold.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees:
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Went with Suicide Squad over Coming 2 America. Despite its bad performance this morning, Gucci could win this. Or it might just go to Dune.
Best Original Score
Nominees:
Don’t Look Up
Dune
No Time to Die
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Went with The French Dispatch (which goose egged) over Mothers. As for the winner (get ready for it) – expect Dune or Dog.
Best Original Song
Nominees:
“Be Alive” from King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
“Down to Joy” from Belfast
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Maybe the surprise here shouldn’t be with “Somehow You Do” over “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up. After all, this marks Diane Warren’s 13th nomination and sixth in the last seven years. She’s never won and won’t this time.
“Be Alive” from Beyonce or “Oruguitas” could get it, but “No Time to Die” from Billie Eilish could be the third Bond theme in a row to be celebrated.
Best Production Design
Nominees:
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
How I Did: 4/5
Commentary: Another category where I said French Dispatch and missed. Power gets in instead. While Dune is strong, I wouldn’t be startled to see this as the lone victory for Nightmare Alley.
Best Sound
Nominees:
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
How I Did: 5/5
Commentary: You should hear Dune‘s name called.
Best Visual Effects
Nominees:
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
How I Did: 3/5
Commentary: Free Guy and Spidey over The Matrix Resurrections and Godzilla vs. Kong. As for the winner: See Best Sound.
Here’s the overall nominations break down:
12 Nominations
The Power of the Dog
10 Nominations
Dune
7 Nominations
Belfast, West Side Story
6 Nominations
King Richard
4 Nominations
Don’t Look Up, Drive My Car, Nightmare Alley
3 Nominations
Being the Ricardos, CODA, Encanto, Flee, Licorice Pizza, The Lost Daughter, No Time to Die, The Tragedy of Macbeth
2 Nominations
Cruella, The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Parallel Mothers, Tick, Tick… Boom!, The Worst Person in the World
1 Nomination
Ascension, Attica, Coming 2 America, Cyrano, Four Good Days, Free Guy, The Hand of God, House of Gucci, Luca, Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, The Mitchells vs. the Machines, Raya and the Last Dragon, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, Spencer, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Summer of Soul, Writing with Fire
Starting very shortly, you can peruse my Case Of posts in which I write individualized posts for all the contenders in Picture, Director, and the four acting races!
Blogger’s Update (12/21): On the eve of its premiere, I’m revising down Resurrections prediction from $30.7 million for the three-day and $47.2 million for the five-day to $26.7 million and $40.3 million for the five-day. This puts Sing 2 in the 2 spot.
The Christmas box office weekend is nearly upon us as a quintet of newcomers are presented either Wednesday or Saturday. We have the return of Neo and Trinity in The Matrix Resurrections, animated sequel Sing 2, Kingsman prequel The King’s Man, true life gridiron tale American Underdog, and the Denzel Washington directed romantic drama A Journal for Jordan. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:
None of the newcomers stand a chance at dethroning the reign of Spider-Man atop the charts after it achieved the second largest opening of all-time (more on that below). No Way Home should dominate yet again and the question is how much it falls in weekend #2. The MCU juggernaut scored a rare A+ Cinemascore average meaning audiences are loving what they see.
One potential comp could be Star Wars: The Force Awakens which dropped 40% in its sophomore holiday frame. I’ll say Spidey falls a bit more than that (more in the 50-55% percent range).
With the webslinger secure in first position, there could be a real fight for the runner-up spot. I have Matrix barely getting by Sing 2 (though the latter will almost certainly leg out stronger in subsequent weekends). I’m only forecasting a $400k difference between them.
The King’s Man could be the odd sequel/prequel out as far as interest in concerned. I have it falling under double digits for the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend. That should be good enough for fourth place.
Underdog and Journal both premiere on Christmas Day and will only have two days tallied toward their grosses. I have the former at just over $6 million and the latter a tad shy of $3 million.
Holdovers not named Spider-Man should experience declines in the 40s and up range (this appears to be case when Christmas falls on a Saturday and Christmas Eve is a somewhat smaller day for earnings). Encanto could be an outlier and probably suffers the smallest drop.
Finally, Paul Thomas Anderson’s acclaimed awards contender Licorice Pizza expands and could deliver a $1-2 million showing (I’ll skew toward the middle of the range as it’s out on approximately 750 screens).
With all this Yuletide activity, I’m expanding my normal top 5 to a top 10 and here’s how I see it:
1. Spider-Man: No Way Home
Predicted Gross: $125.2 million
2. Sing 2
Predicted Gross: $31.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $46.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
3. The Matrix Resurrections
Predicted Gross: $26.7 million (Friday to Sunday); $40.3 million
4. The King’s Man
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
5. American Underdog
Predicted Gross: $7.2 million
6. Encanto
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million
7. A Journal for Jordan
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
8. Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Predicted Gross: $2 million
9. West Side Story
Predicted Gross: $2 million
10. Licorice Pizza
Predicted Gross: $1.8 million
Box Office Results (December 17-19)
Spider-Man: No Way Home swung to unprecedented heights (regardless of pandemic times) as it demolished box office records and accomplished the #2 highest domestic opening of all-time (behind only the MCU’s Avengers: Endgame). Coming in just ahead of previous runner-up Star Wars: The Force Awakens, the Spidey sequel made $260.1 million (laying my estimate of $213.7 million to waste). While other pics are struggling in the marketplace, audiences were clearly primed for the event flick.
Encanto took second with $6.4 million, in range with my $6 million for projection and the Disney toon is up to $81 million.
West Side Story plummeted a troubling 65% for third in its sophomore outing with $3.6 million (below my $5.5 million take). Steven Spielberg’s musical has managed only $18 million in its ten days of release.
Ghostbusters: Afterlife was fourth with $3.4 million (I said $3.6 million) for $117 million overall.
Finally, Guillermo del Toro’s Nightmare Alley struggled to find a crowd preoccupied with Spider-Man. Despite star power and its Oscar winning filmmaker, the noir thriller debuted in fifth with a measly $2.8 million compared to my $3.3 million prediction.
And that does it for now, folks! Have a Happy Holidays!
**Blogger’s Note (12/09): National Champions is only being released on approximately 1100 screens. I am revising my projection from $3.2 million to $1.6 million. That puts it outside the top five. Eternals moves to the 5 spot.
After a sluggish post Thanksgiving weekend, theater owners are hoping that Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story provides pleasing numbers in the frame before Spider-Man: No Way Home looks to set pandemic era records. We also have the sports drama National Champions looking to make a play. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on both newcomers here:
After a year long delay, the West Side remake has generated mostly glowing reviews and Oscar buzz. It should easily open in first place. That said, December pics (especially those with awards chatter) often start a little slow and hope to leg out during the holidays and January. A debut over $20 million would be fantastic, but I’ll project low to mid teens is more plausible.
As for Champions, I’m not anticipating much and it may find itself at the bottom of the top five.
Holdovers should fill the rest of the chart with Encanto, Ghostbusters: Afterlife and House of Gucci sliding down a spot.
Here’s how I see it:
1. West Side Story
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million
2. Encanto
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
3. Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
4. House of Gucci
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. Eternals
Predicted Gross: $2.8 million
Box Office Results (December 3-5)
Holiday leftovers filled with the top 3 slots as December kicked off. A pic I didn’t factor in nabbed the 4 position. Nearly all the returnees fell a tad short of my projections.
As expected, Disney’s Encanto stayed at #1 with $13.1 million, a shade below my $14.1 million take. Two-week total is $58 million with $100 million firmly in its sights.
Crossing the nine digit milestone was Ghostbusters: Afterlife in second with $10.3 million (I went with more at $12 million). After three weeks, the ‘Busters have crossed that milestone with $102 million.
House of Gucci was third in its sophomore frame with $7 million (I said $7.8 million). Tally is $33 million.
I had a blind spot in fourth courtesy of Christmas with the Chosen: The Messengers. The limited release event featuring inspirational holiday music released on 1700 screens and made $4.1 million. I simply didn’t have it on my Yuletide radar.
Eternals closed out the high five with $4 million. My prediction? $4 million!! It’s the second weekend in a row where I correctly called the MCU adventure and it’s made $156 million.
Back at it next week as Spider-Man and Nightmare Alley debut!
While the COVID era has altered the release patterns of movies in significant ways, the first weekend of December is not that unique from what we’ve seen in pre pandemic times. It will be a quieter frame filled with the holiday leftovers and no newbies out in wide release. That could mean the top five will stay the same with one probable exception.
Disney has made a habit out of releasing their animated titles over the Thanksgiving frame and that resulted in Encanto topping the holiday charts. Looking at previous Mouse Factory premieres over the past several years, Coco dropped 46% in its second frame in 2017 while Moana fell 50% the year prior. I will basically split the difference with Encanto and that means a low teens gross.
That should be enough to keep it #1 over Ghostbusters: Afterlife, which may lose about half its audience in weekend #3. House of Gucci, after a solid start, might see a drop in the mid 40s and that should easily keep it in third. Eternals looks to hold the four spot.
The only change could be Clifford the Big Red Dog going back in the top five. While I have it experiencing a decline of over 50%, I suspect Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City (after a disappointing debut) could plummet in the mid 60s and that would remove it from the high five.
Here’s how I see it going down:
1. Encanto
Predicted Gross: $14.1 million
2. Ghostbusters: Afterlife
Predicted Gross: $12 million
3. House of Gucci
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million
4. Eternals
Predicted Gross: $4 million
5. Clifford the Big Red Dog
Predicted Gross: $2.4 million
Box Office Results (November 26-28)
It wasn’t the bountiful harvest of Thanksgivings past, but audiences managed to turn up for two newcomers while mostly ignoring a third.
Encanto took in $27.2 million over the traditional Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend and $40.5 million since its Wednesday start. That didn’t reach my projections of $31.2 million and $46.5 million, respectively. The debut is only about half of what previous Disney animated features like the aforementioned Moana and Coco achieved. Yet it’s still the best animated opening in COVID times.
Ghostbusters: Afterlife held up well in second with $24.2 million, a bit shy of my $27 million prediction. The two-week total is $87 million as it looks to hit $100 million in the coming days.
Adult crowds finally turned up for something and they went gaga for House of Gucci. The Ridley Scott pic fashioned a third place showing with $14.2 million from Friday to Sunday and $22 million since Wednesday. That tops my estimates of $12.3 million and $19.8 million.
Eternals was fourth with $7.9 million. My guess? $7.9 million! The MCU adventure stands at $150 million.
The reboot Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City was badgered at the box office with just $5.3 million for the weekend and $8.8 million for the five-day. That falls well under my takes of $7.7 million and $11.7 million.
Holdovers outside the top five also couldn’t match my projections. Clifford the Big Red Dog was sixth at $5 million (I said $6.9 million). Total is $43 million. Will Smith’s Oscar hopeful King Richard is a bonafide disappointment theatrically. I thought it might have a meager decline in its sophomore outing, but it earned $3.2 million for seventh place. I said $4.8 million and the ten-day tally is a mere $11 million.
The French language animated effort The Summit of the Gods premiered at the Cannes Film Festival this summer and is in limited release prior to its Netflix bow on November 30th. From director Patrick Imbert, Summit is based on a Japanese manga series and is receiving praise from critics across the board with a 100% Rotten Tomatoes score.
The mountaineering tale set around Mount Everest could be a trendy spoiler pick to make the five selections competing for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars. It’s certainly doable, but it will need to climb past several other viable contenders. Disney has three potential hopefuls with Encanto, Luca, and Raya and the Last Dragon. Foreign competitors Flee and Belle may both make the cut and Netflix also has The Mitchells vs. the Machines.
That competition makes it a challenge for Summit‘s inclusion, but the solid reviews could assist in nabbing it a spot. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
Sing 2 is likely to make loud box office noises when it’s released December 22nd. The sequel to the animated musical comedy arrives five years after the original took in $270 million domestically. From Illumination Entertainment, Garth Jennings returns to direct as do the voices of Matthew McConaughey, Reese Witherspoon, Scarlett Johansson, Nick Kroll, Taron Egerton, Tori Kelly, and Nick Offerman. Newbies include Bobby Cannavale, Halsey, Pharrell Williams, Letitia Wright, Eric Andre, and Bono.
Despite part one being a smash hit, it did not manage to nab a Best Animated Feature nod. The first Sing achieved a decent 71% Rotten Tomatoes rating. There’s just a handful of reviews out for the follow-up and it’s currently lower at 60%.
With a trio of Disney efforts (Encanto, Luca, Raya and the Last Dragon), two Netflix properties (The Mitchells vs. the Machines, The Summit of the Gods), and acclaimed foreign features Flee and Belle all in the mix, Animated Feature is already crowded. I don’t foresee a sequel to something that couldn’t get in the first time around being viable.
In Best Original Song, a band that Bono started that you might be familiar with (U2) has “Your Song Saved My Life”. This is another category with plenty of high profile contenders (Beyonce and Billie Eilish among them). Bono and his mates probably won’t make the cut. My Oscar Prediction posts for the films of 2021 will continue…
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